STORM2K

boca wrote:Looks like both models have backed off on that scenario and the dry days will continue, and I think rainy season will start late this year.

Yes, for a short period it looked like we were on the cusp but that has retreated. For me on the Treasure coast, still about 10 days away from average wet season start.

Start of the Wet Season* - Past 70 years
Orlando May 27
Daytona Beach May 30
Sanford May 27
Melbourne May 28
Vero Beach May 26
Fort Pierce May 25
Stuart May 23

the invasions of low dewpoints and breezy conditions have delivered some of the best May weather i can recall in a long time. the evenings are just divine. I will happily accept a late rainy season start in exchange for more of this.

Wow, we are going to really be ripped off with rain for what seems like a long while, even into June. This kind of pattern, once it gets entrenched, tends to not go anywhere. At this rate it may be mid June before we get some more decent rains.

GFS now looking very hot for the peninsula starting in about a week. Especially the west coast. Now maybe we get some rain around May 30-31, in SFL. It did actually rain a bit last night........those streamers from the Bahamas often come in under-forecasted and sometimes over-deliver.

The 18Z GFS has this nice cool pattern abruptly ending in about a week with widespread 100s across the peninsula.

True Wet season start is no where in sight. The dry conditions will continue across FL at least over the next 10 days, especially along the west coast of the Peninsula.
Don't forget to water your plants.

Wonder how deep we'll get into drought before the wet season arrives, sure it's a little more comfortable but we're running at less than half the usual rainfall year to date... could use some water

Our most extreme heat takes place just before the onset of the rainy season. Mid to upper 90's over the interior next week seems likely. With dry surfaces and moderate humidity, the high sun angle can focus on intense heating.

gatorcane wrote:The 18Z GFS has this nice cool pattern abruptly ending in about a week with widespread 100s across the peninsula.

https://i.postimg.cc/bvCdrrct/gfs-T2m-seus-33.png

I saw that run too. Looks like it backed off that just slightly, but to see those 100s drill so far down the peninsula pretty much into South Florida.........not something you see every day. We're gonna get torched, just a question of how much.

Has been hot, dry and breezy from the east. Next week's weather will be more like how it usually is out west I suppose. Highs closing in on nearly 100.

What ever happened to northjaxpro and thestormexpert?

We are on track in having the driest May on record if the Orlando International doesn't get much rain over Memorial weekend which is the next decent chance of rain we get around 40% on Sunday, which is not that great.
We have been spoiled during at least the past 6 years in which our rainy season has started around the middle of May.

boca wrote:What ever happened to northjaxpro and thestormexpert?

Alien abduction. What, you think it a mere coincidence that the Pentagon's "big reveal" is staged to occur next month shortly after the beginning of the upcoming 2021 Hurricane Season? I think not. The truth shall soon be told. Thestormexpert & Northjaxpro are probably both in another Galaxy by now. Why? Because they knew TOO much and some alien race wanted their knowledge

no rain here so far in May but this has been the best May since I've lived here hands down. It is remarkable to have the month dominated by comfy dewpoints and breezy weather. Phenomenal. the rains will arrive. they always do. in the meantime enjoy the sun.

I agree, nicest May since I could remember here. The GFS keeps dewpoints below 70F even deep into South Florida for the much of the next 9 days with slightly below normal temps.

Shower / T-Storm chances start creeping in on the Treasure Coast this weekend into next week. This would be right on cue for a wet season debut. We shall see.

I do believe the Wet Season has very quietly just entered the room on the Treasure Coast. Humidity / Dews have been ramping up and today the first SHOWERS.I was watching the clouds today try much harder than they have recently to coalesce and it finally happened. SHOWERS! Slight to moderate chances of Showers & T-storms now in the forecast every day through the extended instead of bone dry sunshine.

Monthly precipitation as of 31 May 2021
Fort Lauderdale: 2.07” (-3.49”)
Miami: 2.68” (-3.64”)

Avg. May rainfall for both stations: 5.6”
< 1.8” → odds > 50% of MH impact in South FL*

*Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties

From the article:

Since 1925, eight of the nine major hurricanes -- storms with more than 110 mph winds -- hit Broward or Dade after a dry May, Lushine said.

And if it is an unusually dry May, the odds get worse for South Florida, Lushine said. May's average rainfall in Miami-Fort Lauderdale is 5.6 inches. If there is less than 1.8 inches of rain -- one-third the average amount -- the chances are better than even that South Florida will get hit with a major hurricane, he said.

There have been eight years since 1925 with less than 1.8 inches of rain. In five of those years -- including last year (1992 – ed.) -- a major hurricane struck, Lushine said.

So apparently the correlation between a dry May and MH impacts in South FL is not especially strong except in extremely dry Mays, given that chances of a MH impact were equal to or less than even in years that featured > 1.8” of rainfall in May but still finished with below-average precipitation for that month. This is why the forecaster who noticed the correlation focussed initially and primarily on the driest Mays. For instance, he noted that the driest, second driest, and third driest Mays on record at Miami and Fort Lauderdale occurred in 1965, 1992, and 1935. While each of these years featured a MH strike on Florida, only Andrew (1992) actually made landfall in either Dade or Broward County. The 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Betsy (1965), by contrast, struck the Monroe County Keys, not the mainland of South FL. The 1935 hurricane might have produced MH gusts in far southwestern Dade County, near the Dade–Monroe county line in Everglades National Park, while Betsy, given its RMW of ~30 n mi relative to its landfall and westward movement over Tavernier, probably produced sustained MH winds near Homestead in southern Dade County. The forecaster thus seems to lack a clear definition of what constitutes a MH impact on South FL, given that he apparently includes Palm Beach County as part of South FL, yet relies on rainfall data from MIA/FLL to assess MH impacts in Dade or Broward County. Perhaps he is referring to MH gusts over these two counties as constituting a direct impact.

Some signs rainy season is just around the corner. Rain changes pick up tomorrow into most of next week.

toad strangler wrote:I do believe the Wet Season has very quietly just entered the room on the Treasure Coast. Humidity / Dews have been ramping up and today the first SHOWERS.I was watching the clouds today try much harder than they have recently to coalesce and it finally happened. SHOWERS! Slight to moderate chances of Showers & T-storms now in the forecast every day through the extended instead of bone dry sunshine.

Yep, Nearly 60% chance everyday in the near term forecast. I do believe this past Friday 5/28 was the spark as posted above on the Treasure Coast and today through the week a high chance of the official start to Wet Season.