Texas Fall-2015

[Brent]

Hmmmm, closest I've seen snow to DFW so far..

[Texas Snowman]

Pretty active evening here along the Red River.

My son's JV football game (Denison/Prosper) got scrubbed in Prosper due to lightning and heavy rains (poured for a pretty good while, lots of standing/running water when we went to eat in Prosper and after we got out).

Also lots of water in portions of Grayson County where flash flood warnings were in effect and water was over Hwy. 377 near Whitesboro for a time.

Finally, tornado warning in Grayson County and spotters reported a brief confirmed tornado touchdown in Sherman, although I heard of no damage.

BTW, the Austin College weather station west of Sherman showed 1.12 inches of rain.

[TarrantWx]

NWS Fort Worth posted some really interesting radar screenshots as the tornado passed close to their office and also a graph of the barometric pressure at the office showing the drop as the tornado passed within 0.25 miles. I followed the storm on radar from its development near Granbury. I was worried because of its instant "flying eagle" shape and figured it would blow up into a monster supercell, especially given the clearing skies and increasing instability, but it never seemed to intensify. It never even had a SVR warning before it went tornadic. Caught me completely off guard when I heard the sirens going off. Just goes to show that when the conditions are favorable you really do need to "keep an eye to the sky".

[Brent]

CMC going all in on widespread freezing temps at the end of next week:

[bullockrobinson]

Bust so far NW of Austin

[aggiecutter]

3.25" of rain in Texarkana last night.

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS still on board with it turning cold around the 20th with a few days of highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Teles start looking better by mid month, but nothing impressive yet on those, just getting around neutral.

[TheProfessor]

It's Leafmageddon part 2 here, half the trees still have leaves here so there might be a part 3.

[Ntxw]

I don't trust any modeled abnormal cold beyond 5 days at this time. EPO going way too positive and flow is zonal. Just don't see how cold air makes it with low heights over Alaska. May cool with climo, but I think modeled cold will get pushed back at least until the teleconnections improve.

[Ralph's Weather]

I don't trust any modeled abnormal cold beyond 5 days at this time. EPO going way too positive and flow is zonal. Just don't see how cold air makes it with low heights over Alaska. May cool with climo, but I think modeled cold will get pushed back at least until the teleconnections improve.

Agreed that the cool down will likely be pushed back, but the dam will break with the warm SSTs in the GoA and off of Greenland eventually creating blocking.

[TarrantWx]

I don't trust any modeled abnormal cold beyond 5 days at this time. EPO going way too positive and flow is zonal. Just don't see how cold air makes it with low heights over Alaska. May cool with climo, but I think modeled cold will get pushed back at least until the teleconnections improve.

Agreed that the cool down will likely be pushed back, but the dam will break with the warm SSTs in the GoA and off of Greenland eventually creating blocking.

You mean like this? Fantasy land for sure, but fun to look at

[Ralph's Weather]

You mean like this? Fantasy land for sure, but fun to look at

Exactly what I was looking at. The GFS has been hinting at it for the last day or two. It is still 10 days out at least so it will likely change many times. Just glad that there is something on the horizon. Climatically we are right around our average first freeze date now.

[Brent]

I think we just had more rain here than we had last night... looks like a boundary of some kind over the NE metroplex

[Ntxw]

Where is all this scattered rain coming from? I am truly befuddled. The HiRES short range guidance shows a huge slug of rain across the state tonight into tomorrow. What global model foresaw this? If that happens just wow. I mean seriously we're talking about less than 24 hours. I guess like the EPO, if the STJ wants it to rain, it will rain...



#ElNino? I certainly hope these surprises continue through winter

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I was wondering that too. The HRRR has been showing this all day. STJ is in effect.

[weatherdude1108]

Where is all this scattered rain coming from? I am truly befuddled. The HiRES short range guidance shows a huge slug of rain across the state tonight into tomorrow. What global model foresaw this? If that happens just wow. I mean seriously we're talking about less than 24 hours. I guess like the EPO, if the STJ wants it to rain, it will rain...



#ElNino? I certainly hope these surprises continue through winter

That is what I was wondering.(?) I saw scattered pops around San Angelo and other areas way north and west of here. Was only supposed to happen down here. Jim Spencer (local weatherman here) said yesterday that these models have had a tough time figuring out QPF with this El Niño. They change by the hour with new data. I think you are right. The STJ trumps everything! Nice surprise.

Also may struggle to get above 60 tomorrow here.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose had an interesting stat in his last paragraph. December 1991 was an El Nino year also, right?

Interesting Rainfall Statistic: According to Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas State Climatologist, the 5-day period from October 22 through October 27 was the wettest 5-day period in Texas history, dating back to at least 1950. Statewide rainfall during this period averaged 3.97 inches. The previous five-day rainfall record came in December 1991, when 3.82 inches was recorded.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[TheProfessor]

Looks like I could see some 50-60kt winds at the surface provided good mixing on the 11th-12th Someone said a model was predicting Helicity values to be near 600. IF we got even a low CAPE of 500J+ we could see a tornado outbreak here. Crazy wind fields being predicted.

[Ntxw]

Bob Rose had an interesting stat in his last paragraph. December 1991 was an El Nino year also, right?

Interesting Rainfall Statistic: According to Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas State Climatologist, the 5-day period from October 22 through October 27 was the wettest 5-day period in Texas history, dating back to at least 1950. Statewide rainfall during this period averaged 3.97 inches. The previous five-day rainfall record came in December 1991, when 3.82 inches was recorded.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

Yes 1991 was a moderate/strong El Nino

[JayDT]

Radar seems to be filling in quite nicely...