Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.6N 60.3W OR ABOUT 285 NM NNE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 685 NM SSE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW
AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. SEE THE
LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALTHOUGH BILL HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY TO A
CATEGORY 3 STORM IT IS NOT EXPECTED LONG LASTING AND COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY 4 LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY. HURRICANE BILL
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WELL DEFINED EYE WITH SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT AND
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 56W-63W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS CLEARLY
DEFINED MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY UPPER AIR...THEREFORE NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS SLIGHTLY TILED DUE TO HURRICANE BILL
EXTENDING FROM 15N50W TO 8N46W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...DUE TO DRY UPPER AIR THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
NOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 8N29W 7N39W 8N55W 10N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 9N-12N E OF 21W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 24W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN NNE TO
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WHILE A UPPER
LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC IS CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE E GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DOT THE E
GULF E OF 90W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS BEGINNING TO
CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST OFF THE YUCATAN NEAR 18N87W COVERING
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH N OVER THE E GULF
OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E PANAMA TO E CUBA ALONG
78W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY STABLE AIR IS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 80W LIMITING ANY DEEP LAYERED
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...FAST LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS HIGHER SEAS AND SWELLS ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO ALL COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE
BILL AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NW OF THE ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING FOR THE ATLC IS HURRICANE BILL. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N66W TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS NEAR 23N75W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 68W-71W. OTHERWISE THE ATLC BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC BY A 1021 MB
HIGH NW OF BERMUDA AND IN THE E ATLC BY A 1026 MB HIGH W OF THE
AZORES AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N29W WITH A WEAKNESS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC DUE TO HURRICANE BILL.

$$
WALLACE

[Gustywind]

Looking at AFRICA...

[Gustywind]

Bill now a category 3 hurricane
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 20, 2009 4:17 am ET
Hurricane Bill has weakened slightly, with maximum sustained winds near the center now at 125 mph. This makes Bill a category 3 hurricane.

Bill will continue moving over warm waters, and therefore could return to category 4 status.

As of early Thursday morning Hurricane Bill was located 790 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, while continuing to move quickly off to the northwest. Bill should begin turning in a more northerly direction by later Friday.

Based on all available forecast data at this time, it appears that Bill will track west of Bermuda and east of the Eastern U.S. Coast over the next few days.

A vigorous upper-level trough now moving into the Plains and Upper Midwest, will continue to push east this weekend. This will help to deflect Bill from any U.S. or Bermuda landfall. However, regardless of a direct landfall, some impacts will be felt along the Eastern U.S. and Bermuda coasts.

Waves will become elevated today from North Carolina to central Florida as swells produced by Bill begin to reach the East Coast. Into the weekend, waves will spread northward into New England and increase in size.

For Bermuda, waves will rise through today and peak late Friday into early Saturday.

Although a direct impact to the U.S. and Bermuda is not expected at this time, this hurricane still needs to be monitored closely. Any slight deviation to the right or left of the current forecast track could greatly alter the forecasts for the Island of Bermuda or southeastern New England.

As a precaution, a hurricane or tropical storm watch could be posted for Bermuda later this morning

[cycloneye]

The weather so far today has been variable with some morning showers,but it feels very humid outside as the day goes on.The winds are turning to NW and will be from the south tommorow causing warmer temps.The biggest story is the high seas that the surfers are happy surfing today.Watch those feederbands to the south of Bill.

[msbee]

One of those feeder bands came through a little while ago and dumped about 1.5 inches of rain on us.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 201937
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
337 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
BASED ON LATEST INFORMATION AT 200 PM AST...MAJOR HURRICANE BILL
WAS NOW NEAR 23.2N 62.6W MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS
NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRESENTLY THE CENTER OF BILL WAS SOME
400 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER CONTINUE TO SPIRAL SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
DAY. THESE SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND QUICKLY DEVELOPED...RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLANDS. ESTIMATED DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL
TOTALS WERE BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
HOWEVER THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS FAST MOVING.

THE PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF BILL. OTHER THAN SHIFT IN THE OVERALL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...
EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AS
BILL PULLS THE TRAILING MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH.

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE THE SWELL ACTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE LATEST BUOY DATA TO THE
NORTH 41043 SHOWED A RAPID INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHT WITH SWELL HEIGHTS
UP TO 16 FEET AND AROUND 16 SECS. EXPECT THE SWELL ENERGY TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AFFECT THE NORTH FACING
COASTLINES OF THE ISLANDS. THE LARGE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS
SHOULD RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET...OR LARGER...AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED BEACHES THROUGH
10 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL 10 AM AST ON FRIDAY PENDING FURTHER REPORTS.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD...
SPREADING HIGH SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 595 MILES...
960 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1080 MILES...1735 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE 12 TO 24 HOURS...BILL STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS ON FRIDAY.

BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND ITS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND
THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.8N 63.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[HUC]

Helloo all;have you seen in page 1 of this thread how my volcano is beautiful withougt any cloud???
Some heavy surf here with Bill,and nothing else .See you later

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE BILL CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...
885 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1020 MILES...1640 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND BILL COULD REGAIN CATEGORY
FOUR STRENGTH TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND ITS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND
THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.4N 63.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

...POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL REMAINS ON TRACK...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES...
825 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 975 MILES...1570 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...AND BILL COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH ON
FRIDAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY.

BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
BERMUDA COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES GENERATED BY BILL.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.9N 64.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BILL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.
THE LARGE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL-DEFINED...HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE THIS EVENING REPORTED A PEAK BELIEVABLE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 127 KT. ALTHOUGH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WERE
REPORTED...THE METEOROLOGISTS ON THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT CONSIDER
THOSE HIGHER WINDS TO BE VALID. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY. BASED ON ALL OF THE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 110 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. AFTERWARDS...SOME COOLING OF THE SSTS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY THE
SHIPS MODEL TO REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE HURRICANE NEARS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BEGIN TO COOL MORE RAPIDLY AROUND THAT TIME...AND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY VERY SOON THEREAFTER. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE

BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/16 KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH
NEW TO SAY ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST. BILL IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND RECURVE AHEAD
OF THAT TROUGH THEREAFTER. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ONCE AGAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING...OR WILL
AFFECT...A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

DATA FROM A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION CONDUCTED BY
NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ASSIMILATED INTO THE INITIALIZATION OF THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 24.9N 64.3W 110 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 26.9N 66.1W 115 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 29.6N 67.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 32.7N 68.9W 110 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 36.4N 68.6W 100 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 44.3N 62.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 50.5N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/0000Z 55.0N 20.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Hot,hot,hot is the word today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
328 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING VERY WEAK AND TURNING
SOUTHERLY AS HURRICANE BILL MOVES RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAK AND VARIABLE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SEA BREEZE EFFECTS DOMINATING BY MID AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
DRY DAY IN STORE TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR PR. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED...EXCEPT TOWARDS THE LEEWARDS...WHERE AN EXTREME SOUTHERN OUTER
BAND TRAILING HURRICANE BILL MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS. THAT ACTIVITY
COULD BE CLOSE TO THE USVI...BUT WILL BE VERY HARD TO PLACE AND
TIME.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BEGIN TURNING THE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN BACK
TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DURING THAT TIME...A WEAK LOW
LATITUDE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST...OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME PERIPHERAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OFF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WAVE OVER THE USVI AND PR LATE SAT
AND SUNDAY. GFS STILL SHOWING MOIST FLOW NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALLOWING DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EUROPEAN MODEL ALSO SHOWING THIS SOLUTION...BUT WITH A
SLIGHTLY LESS MOIST BIAS. AFTER THAT...DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE SW ATLC FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

[Gustywind]

Hi all my carib islanders, as Cycloneye mentionned previously it's a very hot weather but in the Leewards too! 32°C expected in Guadeloupe. Also, we should experience some scattered showers... See you in the water my friends .
Have a good day all as the sun is our heart

Here some sat pics of the Lesser Antilles...

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 210901
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009

PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS EARLY THIS MORNING. PASSING SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. WINDS WERE FROM THE
SOUTH AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER FRINGE RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE
BILL WILL REMAIN LOCATED OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...DUE TO
LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE BILL. IN ADDITION...A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT SMALLER
ISLANDS.

$$

[msbee]

Good morning everyone
Bill has passed us by but the high waves he generated have left a mess in Philipsburg, which is a south facing beach.
The waves and sand covered the entire boardwalk and there is a massive clean up going on.
I know there are other areas too where the sand has covered the roads.
I posted some pictures on my blog if you want to take a look.
http://barcann.livejournal.com/

I believe we had such terrible beach erosion there because of all the things we have done to the harbour, particularly heavy dredging, so part of what you see is due to Bill and part is man amde.
We humans do make things worse.

Have a good day!
Barbara

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009

...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...RAINBANDS
ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...
540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES...1215 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE WILL BIL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
SATURDAY.

BILL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. RADAR
FROM BERMUDA INDICATES THAT SOME RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
BERMUDA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE
COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN ADVANCE
OF BILL.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.6N 66.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009

AFTER SOME DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN EARLY THIS
MORNING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
APPARENT AGAIN ALTHOUGH IS NOT AS DISTINCT IT WAS YESTERDAY.
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYEWALL
WITH AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND. AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
KNOW WHETHER THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE FORMATION OF A SECONDARY
EYEWALL. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WAS
RELATED TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS INDICATE THAT INITIAL
INTENSITY CAN BE ADJUSTED DOWN TO 100 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS TO MOVE OVER THE WARMEST OCEAN YET TODAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THE SHEAR IS LOW AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
BILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE BUT MOST LIKELY THE
HURRICANE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SHEAR AND A COLDER OCEAN SHOULD WORK
AGAINST INTENSIFICATION AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEYOND 72 HOURS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS WHILE
EMBEDDED IN VERY WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. BILL IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND SOON WILL BECOME STEERED NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE TWO
FEATURES ARE BEING HANDLED CONSISTENTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND CONSEQUENTLY THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED. THE FACT THAT TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION
OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 27.6N 66.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W 100 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 33.0N 68.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 36.5N 68.4W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 48.5N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 53.5N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1200Z 57.5N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[msbee]

Bermuda web cam
http://www.weather.bm/webcam.html

[Gustywind]

Good morning everyone
Bill has passed us by but the high waves he generated have left a mess in Philipsburg, which is a south facing beach.
The waves and sand covered the entire boardwalk and there is a massive clean up going on.
I know there are other areas too where the sand has covered the roads.
I posted some pictures on my blog if you want to take a look.
http://barcann.livejournal.com/

I believe we had such terrible beach erosion there because of all the things we have done to the harbour, particularly heavy dredging, so part of what you see is due to Bill and part is man amde.
We humans do make things worse.

Have a good day!
Barbara

Tkanks for this nice post Msbee i appreciate your blog pretty informative

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2009


.DISCUSSION...
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH INDUCED BY THE DEPARTING HURRICANE BILL
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
EXIT THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING..AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EAST ATLANTIC BUILDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
AND WE RETURN TO MORE OF A NORMAL EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

EXPECT BRIEF LINES OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACCOMPANYING A WEAK CONVERGENT
ZONE WHICH HAS SET UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH
AND ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA AND BRING DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 57 WEST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO PASS MAINLY
SOUTH OF ISLANDS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY TUTT LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES COULD BRING SOME
ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE PRESENT CONDITIONS...AND SUGGEST DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREAS MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT AS USUAL
STILL A FEW DAY OFF SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS EXPECT MAINLY LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AFFECTING THE PARTS OF THE
EAST COASTAL AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH PREVAILING FAIR WEATHER
SKIES DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL ENE WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF
PR...EVENTUALLY SPREADING IN TJMZ AFT 22/18Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND HURRICANE BILL BROUGHT VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PR TODAY. WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE IN SAN JUAN WILL LIKELY FALL SHY OF THE RECORD 97
RECORDED ON THIS DATE IN 1980...TODAY WILL MARK THE SECOND WARMEST
AUGUST 21ST ON RECORD...WITH THE TEMPERATURE LAST HITTING 93 IN 2007.

[abajan]

Thankfully, things have calmed down now with just light rain to contend with but over the past hour or so, Barbados has been experiencing wind gusts as high as 55 mph at the airport and possibly higher elsewhere. I don't know if they're connected with Bill or not.

Link: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

[cycloneye]

This is the new wave to watch in the next few days.

ABNT20 KNHC 212341
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN