Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST WED JUN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. A DRIER AND DUSTY
AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WERE MINIMAL. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

AS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDINESS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION. AT THIS MOMENT...
HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. AS SOON AS LATE TONIGHT...A SHARP
DECREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES
REACHING THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH TUTT LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED AS A DRIER AND DUSTY AIR MASS PREVAILS
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...THURSDAY THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY...
HAZY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT EACH
AFTERNOON.

EARLY THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT RELOCATES TO OUR WEST AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL DETERIORATE THE WX CONDS TODAY.
-SHRA SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED LATE IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CEILINGS AT AROUND FL040 AND TEMPO CEILINGS AT FL020-030
STARTING LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPO MVFR DUE TO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 17/16Z
AS THEY HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. WX CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 18/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS. AREAS OF DUST LIMITING VISIBILITIES TO 10
MILES OR LESS WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 89 79 / 60 30 20 20
STT 87 78 89 80 / 60 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED JUN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW AT 30 NORTH 60 WEST IN A
WEAK AREA OF TROUGHINESS STRETCHING OVER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WILL COME WITHIN 200 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN BY
SUNDAY...AND THEN DRIFT WEST TO JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK AND WINDS ERRATIC NEXT
WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT BY FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE AREA AND WILL EXIT TONIGHT DRAWING DRIER AIR LADEN WITH DUST
BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE
CENTRAL AND EAST PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC DRIVING MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. EFFECTS FROM THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WERE GENERALLY VERY LIGHT UNTIL THE LAST HOUR OF THE MORNING.
HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO AND FROM TRUJILLO ALTO TO VEGA BAJA. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF LESS
THAN ONE INCH HAVE FALLEN SO FAR WITH MANY SOUTHERN TIER
MUNICIPALITIES HAVING RECEIVED NORTHING AT ALL SO FAR. A FEW
AREAS HAVE RECEIVED MORE THAN TWO INCHES INCLUDING SPOTS IN
HATILLO AND ARECIBO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE NOT AS CONVINCED THAT NO
RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE
QUITE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING TO SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES AND PLAINS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. DRYING IS
STILL FORECAST BY THE GFS WITH 20 TO 40 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AT 850 MB BY 18/12Z. THE NASA GEO5 MODEL ALSO SHOWS HEAVY SAHARAN
DUST INCREASING FROM ABOUT 18/06Z TO 19/00Z. THE MODEL STILL
SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE THE STRONGEST EVENT OF THE YEAR SO FAR
AND THIS DUST WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT...LINGERING WELL BEYOND
FRIDAY.

THE DRIEST AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY JUST BEFORE A TROPICAL
WAVE BRINGS MUCH BETTER MOISTURE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
LESSER WAVE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD ALSO HAVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR DUE TO SHRA/TSRA AT TJMZ AND TJBQ
POSSIBLE UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z. SCT-BKN LAYERS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN
FL100-150 THRU LATE TONITE. HAZE AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AFTER 18/00Z. LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC OVER
MAINLAND PR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND...WHILE MOST SEAS WILL BE 5 FEET OR LESS...SOME AREAS OF
6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
LOCAL OUTER CARIBBEAN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 90 / 30 10 10 10
STT 77 89 79 88 / 30 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST THU JUN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
A DRIER AND DUSTY AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER
THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

A SHARP DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES REACHING THE AREA. THIS DRIER AND DUSTY
AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH TUTT LOW WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AND DUSTY AIR MASS
AS WELL AS TUTT LOCATION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH HAZY SKIES. SOME LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE CANT BE RULED OUT EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS W PR.

MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS...AS THE TUTT
LOW RELOCATES TO OUR WEST AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS...HAZE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.
HOWEVER VISIBILITY OF P6SM IS STILL EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AT THE SFC EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 18/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND...WHILE MOST SEAS WILL BE 5 FEET OR LESS...SOME AREAS OF
6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
LOCAL OUTER CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 10 10 10 20
STT 91 79 91 79 / 10 10 10 20

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe has issued a red alert concerning the bad quality of the air... as drier and very dusty air mass continue to dominate the local area. Be aware islanders!



Pollution: red alert is triggered

Wednesday, June 17, 2015 - 3: 14 pm

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx

This Wednesday, the concentration of fine particles in the air should exceed the 80 μg/m3 averaged over 24 hours, value corresponding to the regulatory alert threshold. Faced with this forecast and in accordance with the prefectoral Decree relating to the quality of the air, the red alert is triggered on the whole of the territory.

This pollution is mainly linked to the passage of the mists of sands on the Guadeloupe archipelago, but also to human activity (combustion of fossil energy, transportation, industrial activities...).

The alert threshold corresponds to a level of concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere above which a short term exposure poses a risk to human health or environmental degradation justified the intervention of emergency measures. This overrun risk is high for the next 24 hours.

Health recommendations

It is recommended to categories of particularly vulnerable population (pregnant women, infants and young children, people over 65, people suffering from cardiovascular disease, heart failure or respiratory, asthma) and sensitive (people are recognizing as sensitive during peaks of pollution or whose symptoms appear or grow during peaks) of:

-Avoid travel on the main roads and their surroundings, to peak periods. Avoid physical activity and sporting intense (including competitions), both outdoors and indoors. Postpone activities that require more effort.
-In the case of respiratory or cardiac gene (shortness of breath, wheezing, palpitations...):
-Take advice from your pharmacist or your doctor
-Choose the output more brief and those that require the least effort? Take advice from your doctor to know if your medical treatment should be adapted as appropriate.

Measures for the reduction of emissions

To reduce pollution, it is recommended to reduce the speed, emphasize carpooling, public transit and non-polluting modes of transport, stop the use of barbecue and respect the prohibition of burning of green waste in the open air.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST THU JUN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MOVE
WESTWARDOVER THE MONA PASSAGE BY MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH IN THE
EASTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO
FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. HAZY SKIES DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HAZY SKIES DUE TO SAHARAN DUST WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY EARLY AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING DEVELOPED OVER LAS MARIAS
AND ANASCO. FOR TONIGHT...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DRIER AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINE WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CREATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

ALTHOUGH TUTT PATTERN IS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE TUTT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE HISPANIOLA. UNTIL
THEN...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE USVI
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PR. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS AND WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE IN
THE INTERIOR AND WEST-NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SAHARAN DUST WILL BE THE GREATEST HINDRANCE TO
NAVIGATION TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 7 AND 10 SM
AND LCLY AS LOW AS 5SM IN HAZE. AFT 18/17Z EXPECT SCT +TSRA TO
DEVELOP IN WRN PR BEGINNING AT LEAST 5 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND MOVING WNW AND JUST NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH LCL
MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. TSRA SHOULD BE GONE BY 19/01Z. WINDS UP
TO FL150 ARE E-ESE 10 TO 20 KT. WINDS INCREASE TO BECOME WNW 40 TO
50 KT BTWN FL360-FL480.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 8 FEET MAINLY ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE AND OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY FROM THEIR DIURNAL VARIATIONS SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 89 / 10 10 20 20
STT 80 90 79 89 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST FRI JUN 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN RELOCATE
TO OUR WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH
EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. SAHARAN DUST WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 80 DEGREES ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGH ALOFT...
HOWEVER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES...
SAHARAN DUST AS WELL AS THE TUTT LOCATION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH HAZY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT
EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS W PR.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS...
AS THE TUTT LOW RELOCATES TO OUR WEST AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. AS TUTT LOW MOVES AWAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN A DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THRU THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA...CREATING HAZY CONDS. HOWEVER...VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN P6SM WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDS. BRIEF SHRA EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ AFTER 19/16Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
UNTIL 19/13Z...BECOMING EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
SEAS 5 FEET OR LESS THRU SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 78 / 10 20 20 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 10 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST FRI JUN 19 2015

...DUST WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TUTT WILL DROP TOWARD THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...DRIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...LOOP NORTH OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY THEN MOVE TO
JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ON TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST RIDGES
TO THE EAST OVER THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE HIGH WILL RE-FOCUS
TO THE EAST IN THE RIDGE WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TO THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND TO CUBA BY MID WEEK. MID
LEVELS ARE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.

AT LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OUT OF A HIGH IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO
FLORIDA. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SUB TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 52
WEST BY TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY STRETCH BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC LATER NEXT WEEK AND EARLY IN THE FOLLOWING WEEK
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SECOND AND WEAKER WAVE CROSSES JUST
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A THIRD FOLLOWING ON
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS UNTIL THE
WAVE APPROACHES WITH BETTER ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CAP IN THE SOUNDING HELD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 1 PM AST. ONLY A FEW CELLS DEVELOPED AT
FIRST...BUT WITHIN HALF AN HOUR ONE OF THEM HAD REACHED 51 KFT.
THUNDER AND SHOWERS CONTINUE AS OF 3 PM AST STRETCHING FROM RINCON
TO EASTERN ADJUNTAS AND SHOULD SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT
DUST HAS LIMITED CONVECTION AS WELL AS AN INVERSION FROM 4.0-5.5
KFT. WINDS REMAIN EAST SOUTHEAST SO AS TO FAVOR NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO RAIN-WISE. ALTHOUGH A FEW CLOUDS WERE SEEN STREAMING OFF OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IT WAS TOO DRY TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS ANYWHERE DOWNSTREAM.

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MID LEVELS
REMAIN DRIER THAN 40 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT AROUND 850 MB. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL BRING IN BETTER MOISTURE...BUT CURRENTLY ONLY ITS IMMEDIATE
PASSAGE WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER. A
SECOND WEAKER PULSE FOLLOWS IMMEDIATELY AFTER ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT PASSES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HAS ONLY A
FRINGE IMPACT. VERY DRY AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
EVEN AS LOW AS 850 MB AND ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
THE SAME AREAS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR AT TJMZ/TJBQ UNTIL SUNSET DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR...VFR ELSEWHERE. HZ DUE TO
SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD...BUT VIS P6SM. LOW
LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KT...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE AND SOME AREAS OF 7 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SAHARAN DUST LIMITING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 12 MILES EVERYWHERE WILL IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
STT 79 89 78 89 / 20 20 30 30

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST SAT JUN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN DUST EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECTING
TO BE MOSTLY GONE BY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST STARTING ON SUNDAY
MORNING...BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE TUTT WILL BE JUST NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST KEPT HAZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS
MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT HAZY AS THE SAHARAN DUST WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SLOWLY IMPROVING IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE DUST SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE. IT IS NOT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THAT THE SAHARAN DUST WILL RETURN.

BECAUSE OF THIS GRADUAL DECREASE IN DUST CONCENTRATION...SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN PR. BRIEF SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN ONCE AGAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN PR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS AS THE TUTT WILL NOT BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE TROPICAL WAVE NOT SYNCING AS
WELL WITH THE TUTT COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE WAVE IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND THE TUTT
LINGERS A BIT TOO LONG TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
HAVING SAID THAT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STILL INCREASES ON
MONDAY SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...USVI...AND PR...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THE TUTT WILL BE IN A MORE DESIRABLE LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE PROBLEM IS THAT BY THEN THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL ALREADY
BE MOVING IN. SO WHAT APPEARED TO BE A REALLY GOOD PATTERN FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS DOES NOT LOOK
THAT GOOD ANYMORE...HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS AND WESTERN PR
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE TUESDAY AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THAT...DRIER AIR WITH
SAHARAN DUST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THE TUTT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY...DISSIPATING BY
THURSDAY. SO WE WILL HAVE A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH DRY AIR
MOVING IN UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 19/16Z. SAHARAN DUST WILL
CAUSE HAZE BUT VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN P6SM. SFC WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE EAST TO ESE AT 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER
19/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 78 86 79 / 10 20 20 20
STT 81 80 80 80 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST SAT JUN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS USVI/PR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY TUESDAY...THIS TUTT WILL WEAKEN AND
LINGER EAST OF BAHAMAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 48 WEST IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
LOCAL REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWEST...AND BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. MORE SAHARAN DUST WILL SPREAD OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST HAVE BEEN DECREASING
SINCE THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A BRIEF SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAVE MOVED OVER USVI AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WHERE UP TWO
INCHES OF RAIN WAS ESTIMATED BY THE DOPPLER RADAR. BRIEF DOWNPOUR
WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN TRUJILLO ALTO NEAR THE CARRAIZO DAM WHERE
AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN FELL OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...WITH
TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF PR. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MORE WET AND UNSTABLE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING NEAR 2 INCHES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVERHEAD WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AFFECTING PR/USVI FROM AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. AEROSOL MODELS...NAAPS AND NASA GEOS-5 INDICATED ANOTHER
SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
THEREFORE...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TJMZ/TJBQ
UNTIL SUNSET DUE TO SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR...VFR ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HZ DUE TO SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE
TO RECEDE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FEET AND WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS PRODUCING LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS UP TO
6 FEET BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 89 / 20 20 20 30
STT 78 88 79 88 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST SUN JUN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN DUST IS NOW OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY BEFORE THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES ON MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE JUST
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SAHARAN DUST IS NOW OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA AND A
FEW SHOWERS STARTED MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
OF THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE USVI AND EASTERN PR.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL MOISTURE
WILL DECREASE TODAY JUST AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY. FOR TODAY WE EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS SHOULD OBSERVE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE REST OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND
THE LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

STARTING LATE TONIGHT THE MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE.
WHICH WILL BE SEEN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM ABOUT 1.5
INCHES TONIGHT AT 8PM TO ABOUT 2 INCHES ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN A BETTER
POSITION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST AS IT WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME
THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS THAT THE MOST RAINFALL WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHT AND DAYTIME
HOURS...AFFECTING THE USVI THEN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PR...THE AREA WITH THE
LEAST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY. HAVING SAID
THAT...SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS MAY STREAM INTO EASTERN PR.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY ACTIVE AS WELL ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
STILL INTERACTING WITH THE WEAKENING...BUT STILL PRESENT...UPPER
TROUGH. AFTER 23/18Z THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRYING THEN IN HE
EVENING ANOTHER SHORT PULSE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN BUT MOST OF
THAT MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH.

FROM WEDNESDAY ON...THE UPPER TROUGH IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN. THIS
WILL ALSO BE COMBINED WITH SAHARAN DUST. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND NCM/KPK/IST/JSJ...AND ISX IN THE
MORNING. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS W PR AFTER 21/16Z...THIS MAY
CAUSE MVFR CONDS AT JBQ AND JMZ THROUGH 21/22Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE EAST TO ESE AT 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER
21/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS WILL BE UP TO
5 FEET AND THE WIND WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UP TO 6 FEET ON MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 79 85 78 / 30 30 30 40
STT 81 80 81 81 / 30 30 30 50

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST SUN JUN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY WEST NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WILL AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN
DUST EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL..AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING AROUND 15
MPH...THEREFORE..NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WAS
OBSERVED. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS LOCATED NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PUERTO RICO LATE
MONDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE. THESE FACTORS...IN ADDITIONS TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AT LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE...ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 2.2 INCHES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TJSJ...AND TISX UNTIL AT LEAST
21/22Z. AFTER THAT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AFTER 22/17Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST TO ESE AT 10 TO 15 KTS...DIMINISHING AFTER 21/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 90 / 30 30 40 40
STT 79 88 80 89 / 30 30 50 50

[abajan]

It's a rainy afternoon here with winds from the ESE occasionally gusting to storm force!
Will keep you posted (so long as my fiber optic cable isn't popped by my tree).

[Gustywind]

It's a rainy afternoon here with winds from the ESE occasionally gusting to storm force!
Will keep you posted (so long as my fiber optic cable isn't popped by my tree).

Really Abajan? Be aware and be on our guard as usual and keep us informed as possible!

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert for a risk ok stronh showers and tstorms have been activated for Guadeloupe and Martinica. That's the first yellow code for both of these island as the season has begun the 1st of June. Let's see what could happens from this twave.
Given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe this twave should concern Guadeloupe near 2AM and spread till 2 PM tommorow increasing showers and tstorms during the second part of the night. Amount of water reaching 60 to 90 millimeters are somewhat expected.

[Gustywind]

Here is the chart related to the yellow alert for these both islands (Martinica and Guadeloupe).
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[Gustywind]

Abajan, your observations were pretty right about these TS winds in gusts.


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015


TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY A RELATIVELY
HIGH AMOUNT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N
THROUGHOUT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS
SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER BARBADOS...WHERE AN
OBSERVATION AT 19 UTC INDICATED GUSTS TO 34 KT. THE STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO A DRIER PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RELATED TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THE
WAVE WILL PASS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER LOW SHIFT W OF THE AREA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
627 AM AST MON JUN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AS WELL AS SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST FROM THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO
THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO
E-SE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH ONLY A FEW OF THEM BRIEFLY AFFECTING LAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE IT WAS RELATIVELY CALM NIGHT. THE BIG STORY OF THE DAY
IS THE UPCOMING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND HOW
IT INTERACTS WITH THE TUTT TO THE NORTH OF PR AND HISPANIOLA. THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

WHEN IT COMES TO RAINFALL THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF THE
RADAR IN GUADELOUPE SUGGEST THAT THE GFS MODEL HAS A BETTER HANDLE
ON THIS THAN THE ECMWF. THE NAM MODEL PUTS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF PR...WITH
LITTLE RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AGREES THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL BE TODAY BUT MOST OF IT ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PR AND ACROSS THE USVI...WHILE THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO BE A
HYBRID OF BOTH WITH RAINFALL BULLSEYES ACROSS EASTERN WESTERN PR
TODAY BUT LINGERING INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PR AND WEST OF THE USVI EARLY ON
TUESDAY.

GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP...THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS A BIT MORE
REALISTIC GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT THIS WAVE WILL
BRING...ESPECIALLY BEHIND ITS AXIS AS IT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.
HAVING SAID THAT...SAHARAN DUST WILL START TO FILTER IN ON TUESDAY
MORNING SO THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING MAY BE LIMITED
IF THE SAHARAN DUST CATCHES UP.

AT THIS TIME WE BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN PR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF PR. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE TUTT WILL
COMBINE AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN MUNICIPALITIES OF PR AS WELL AS THE USVI.
CURRENTLY...THE TROPICAL WAVE LOOKS QUITE DECENT ON THE GUADELOUPE
RADAR AS WELL AS ON SATELLITE...THERE IS LITTLE TO SUGGEST THAT
THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...AT LEAST UNTIL THE SAHARAN DUST
CATCHES UP ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE SAHARAN DUST CATCHES UP ON TUESDAY...THE CHANCES OF RAIN
LATER ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE REDUCED.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT RULE OUT LOCALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOONS...AS FAR AS MORE GENERALIZED SHOWERS WE MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THE FOLLOWING SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA AFT 12Z AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. PERIODS OF
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AS TSRA SPREADS FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO THE USVI TERMINALS BY NOON AST TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLAND PR WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND SEVERAL BKN/OVC LAYERS THRU THE OVERNIGHT. LLVL
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15-25 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS NEAR SHORE OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND UP TO 6
FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS UP TO 20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WIND UP TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 79 84 81 / 40 50 30 30
STT 82 81 82 81 / 40 60 30 30

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015



COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC HAS ENTERED THE E
CARIBBEAN AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 17N62W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N63W MOVING W-NW 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 17N56W TO
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 55W-62W INCLUDING
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF 15N BETWEEN 62W-69W.

[cycloneye]

Welcomed rains for some islands.

[cycloneye]

NWS San Juan @NWSSanJuan · 5m5 minutes ago
View translation
Gust of 48 mph reported at SJU Airport at 205 pm. Ráfagas de 48 mph reportadas en el aeropuerto de San Juan. ‪#‎prwx