STORM2K

It almost seems like with the intense NAO-, instead of causing cold to drill down, the high pressure near Greenland has actually bled SW all the way down to the SE US and is tying into SE ridging.

psyclone wrote:Man this weather is just perfect. 80ish highs with low to mid 60's lows and 60ish dewpoints in the bay area...it's just divine. And we get another week. How wonderful

My power bill might set an all-time low as I haven't had to run the A/C or the heat for a couple of weeks now.

Still using the ac down here. Just not as much. Cool nights, warm days. Snowbirds perfect weather. As for the teleconnections. I don't understand why cool/cold air not heading south on the s.e. coast. Maybe by xmas or new year.

HurricaneBelle wrote:

psyclone wrote:Man this weather is just perfect. 80ish highs with low to mid 60's lows and 60ish dewpoints in the bay area...it's just divine. And we get another week. How wonderful

My power bill might set an all-time low as I haven't had to run the A/C or the heat for a couple of weeks now.

Really? Mine switches on like it might as well be summer.

Pattern change looks to be on the horizon which should bring below normal temps to much of the eastern US and Florida in about 8-10 days from now.

gatorcane wrote:Pattern change looks to be on the horizon which should bring below normal temps to much of the eastern US and Florida in about 8-10 days from now.

Will believe it when I see it, keeps getting pushed back and more diffuse. The TV mets are going with climo.

Cold bias from the cmc always in play this time of the year.

I’m sure by next week our lows will be in the mid 60s if we are lucky.

Cold front late next week will usher in a cooler regime. Looks like more normal-ish temps with probably a couple days somewhat below normal. After such a long stretch above normal it's going to be a noticeable change. I'd happily take our current regime for the entire winter...but that isn't how it works. Some jacket/hoodie firepit weather is good too..

Here comes the chill on the Euro, 850MB temps look 72-192hr animation:

The low temperatures for next weekend are slowly creeping upward I predict a low maybe around 60 and highs in the mid 70s, cold fronts that I remember getting here look like a thing of the past.

Never thought gfs would be that cold but nice cool down would be nice. It has been perfect lately. Low 80s and 60s night. Next weekend maybe I'll need my hoodie.

At this point we might get a slight cool down with mid 60s and upper 70s. It would of been nice to feel 40s at night but I knew it was not going to happen.

Things are definitely trending colder. Juxtaposed with our recent torchy pattern it is going to be a major change.

psyclone wrote:Things are definitely trending colder. Juxtaposed with our recent torchy pattern it is going to be a major change.

Have you seen the 12zGFS it trended warmer big difference from yesterday.

Euro looks to be trending warmer for Florida as well. Big change from yesterday. The GFS sniffed it out first. Nonetheless looks cooler for Florida especially Central and North.

As someone that enjoys warm weather that's fine by me. But the NWS missed today's highs locally by 10-12 degrees just by failing to anticipate the non burn off of low cloud deck.. so I'm always leery of longer term model lurching. Cooler times are reeling in...the intensity and duration yet to be determined.

Slight Risk of Severe storms for most of Florida on December 15th per SPC.

Around what time do you all think we'll see this season's most intense cold front?

And what do you expect temperatures in the Miami area to get to?

Also what are some signs to watch for in case of an impending freeze, the common patterns?

And let's say a sub-40 temperature doesn't occur this year, when will it next occur? Does there need to be a neutral ENSO? Or an El Niño?

And does this mean we potentially get really low in the 2023-24 winter?

Latest GFS with some serious cold for Florida and most of the country for that matter. It does appear some kind of significant arctic outbreak invading the continental US is likely. The key questions are where it goes and how cold it will get. The signal on the GEFS and EPS for this arctic outbreak deep into the lower 48 is about as strong as I have seen it in recent years.