Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SAT JUL 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BE
REPLACED BY MID TO HIGH RIDGE THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK. MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THRU AT LEAST THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. FROM WED-FRI AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA.
AT LOW LEVELS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWED BY TWO WAVES ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRIER AIR
AND SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED BETWEEN EACH WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT MAINLY DUE TO HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. A PATCH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CREATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PR BUT RAINFALL WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. BY NOON...STREAMERS FORMED OFF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS STREAMING MAINLY
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST STEERING WINDS. BY MID
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE FORMING OVER SECTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN PR. AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY WAS INHIBITED BY THE
LACK OF SEA BREEZE AND DENSE CIRRUS DECK. HOWEVER...AT LEAST THRU
SUNSET...SHOWER ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW PR.

FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
HOWEVER...BEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF PR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SAHARAN DUST IS TRAILING THE
WAVE...SO EXPECT ONCE AGAIN DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY SAHARAN DUST AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE BY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE LATTER WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING BETTER MOISTURE AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AT THE SAME TIME. BY
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AS ANTHER SAL EVENT REACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. SHRA/TSRA MTN OBSCURATIONS IN PR TIL ARND
11/21Z MAINLY NW PR. TRANSITING TROP WAVE WILL SPREAD INCRG MOISTURE
ACROSS FA FROM SE FM 12/02 TO 12/20Z. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONT. AFT 12/12Z SHRA/TSRA WILL INCR DURG DAY. CLRG IN TNCM AND TKPK
AFT 12/18Z AND IN TISX AND TIST AFT 13/00Z. WNDS ALF ESE 10 TO 20 KT
BLO FL050 VEERING TO SW 25 KT ARND FL210.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS...INCREASING 15-20 KT DURING THE DAYTIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 79 89 / 20 50 20 20
STT 79 88 78 90 / 20 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST SUN JUL 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BASED
ON U.S.G.S. SENSORS AND RADAR ESTIMATES...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WERE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES OVER
SE PR.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND THE PROXIMITY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. STRONGEST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE U.S.V.S AND THE EAST AND
SOUTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WEAKENS...RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEAST. RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING EROSION IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS
A RESULT...UNDER RIDGE ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN
DUST REACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PULSE ON
WEDNESDAY. A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE
NEXT WEEKEND...UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUILDING
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE BRINGING MOISTURE AND RAIN TO THE LOCAL
AREA. -SHRA LIKELY ACROSS TJSJ/TJMZ/TJPS/TJBQ THROUGH 12/12Z WHILE
VCSH IS POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ AFTER 12/15Z...WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 12/13Z THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO
15KTS AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WIND
SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 60 20 20 20
STT 88 78 90 79 / 20 20 20 20

[Gustywind]

Thanks cycloneye for keeping us informed!

You say that clearly That's our talento de nuestra casa or our tent By the way, glad to see you expat2carib!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST SUN JUL 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BASED
ON U.S.G.S. SENSORS AND RADAR ESTIMATES...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WERE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES OVER
SE PR.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND THE PROXIMITY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. STRONGEST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE U.S.V.S AND THE EAST AND
SOUTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WEAKENS...RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEAST. RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING EROSION IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS
A RESULT...UNDER RIDGE ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN
DUST REACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PULSE ON
WEDNESDAY. A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE
NEXT WEEKEND...UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUILDING
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE BRINGING MOISTURE AND RAIN TO THE LOCAL
AREA. -SHRA LIKELY ACROSS TJSJ/TJMZ/TJPS/TJBQ THROUGH 12/12Z WHILE
VCSH IS POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ AFTER 12/15Z...WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 12/13Z THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO
15KTS AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WIND
SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 60 20 20 20
STT 88 78 90 79 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Not big relief from the drought that Puerto Rico is going thru but at least a little bit of rain has fallen.We need more Tropical Waves combined with upper troughs to have much more rain.

[Gustywind]

Not big relief from the drought that Puerto Rico is going thru but at least a little bit of rain has fallen.We need more Tropical Waves combined with upper troughs to have much more rain.

Yeah Cycloneye, we need that deseperately included much of the others EC islands... that's enough after the SAL and sargassum!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS MOVING
WEST AS IT WEAKENS...MEANWHILE A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK. DRIER AIR WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING IN
TODAY...THEN DECREASING ON TUESDAY AND MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING ON TUESDAY THEN A
STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SOME HAZE IS IN STORE FOR THE
LOCAL ARE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WESTERN PR
MAY OBSERVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY...THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING...BUT STILL PRESENT UPPER TROUGH...IT
SHOULD DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY DRY DAY
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A STRONGER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THIS ONE LOOK TO BRING VERY DECENT
MOISTURE AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.2 INCHES...WHICH IS IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES. THIS MEANS THAT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THEN DRY
MOVES IN ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
SAHARAN DUST WILL CAUSE SOME HAZE BUT VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN P6SM. WINDS WILL BE AT ABOUT 10-15KT FROM THE EAST WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ/TJBQ IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS WILL BE UP
TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 80 86 80 / 20 20 20 20
STT 82 80 82 80 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN TWO
TUTT LOWS WILL MOVE WEST AS THE EASTERN TUTT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATER THIS WEEK. THAT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FROM A
LOCATION GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL UNDERCUT THE HIGH AND CROSS THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES MOVES
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH PATCHY MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND AND DRY PERIODS
INTERVENING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE OF THE WEEK ON MONDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG INVERSION AT 850 MB HAS IMPEDED ANY SHOWER
FORMATION SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INVADE THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ARRIVING IN PUERTO RICO
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH THE BEST MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE
ISLAND AROUND 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY BUT NARROW AIR MASS
PASSES OVER TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO BE SEEN IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY 15/12Z AND WILL ARRIVE OVER ALL OF PUERTO RICO
BY 15/18Z. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY EPISODE APPEARS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE RECOVERS ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
RAMPS UP SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN TIME FOR THE BEST TROPICAL
WAVE PASSAGE SINCE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE WAS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE VIGOROUS MODELS HAVE BACKED AWAY SLIGHTLY FROM THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSIGNED TO IT PREVIOUSLY AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE DEPICTED AT MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB. THEREFORE
EXPECTATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT YET. DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REST OF THE PENULTIMATE WEEK OF
JULY FOR US.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH 14/12Z WITH POSSIBLE VCSH ONLY. HOWEVER...AN
APPCHG TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS TKPK AND
TNCM BTWN 14/06 AND 14/15Z. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 KT. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS OVER PR AFT
14/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED WITH WINDS ARND 20
KT AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS NOT EXPECTED
THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 78 90 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 88 79 90 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE WEST
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TODAY...BEGINNING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
CUBE CONTINUES WEAKENING SLOWLY WHILE A TUTT IS MOVING FROM THE
EAST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED FOR THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE THAT JUST PASSED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL LEAVE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF CUBA CONTINUES WEAKENING SLOWLY...NOT
HAVING TOO MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT IN THE LOCAL AREA. SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
CURRENTLY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
BROUGHT WAS MODEST AND WITHOUT A GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE
COVERAGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN...A RELATIVELY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...THIS ONE LOOK TO BRING DECENT MOISTURE AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 2
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST...CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES. THIS MEANS THAT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THEN DRY AIR MOVES
IN ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT THE LEEWARD TERMINALS AS WELL
AS JSJ/IST/ISX. AFT 14/17Z ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER W PR...
AFFECTING JMZ THRU 14/22Z. WINDS ESE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS UP TO 6
FEET AND/OR WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BE AT AROUND
15-20 KNOTS AT ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI AS WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 30 20 20 40
STT 88 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

Oh boy,hopefully this does not occur on top of the already drought conditions that many islands are going thru.

http://climatesociety.ei.columbia.edu/2 ... 2016maybe/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST TUE JUL 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE WEST
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH OF CUBA CONTINUES WEAKENING SLOWLY WHILE A TUTT IS
MOVING FROM THE EAST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY ALONG
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED FOR THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING MOISTURE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WHICH MOVED SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND DAYTIME HEATING. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. FOR WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION THURSDAY. AS A RESULT DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST...CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.
THIS MEANS THAT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...AN EXTENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY VCSH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TAF SITES. AFTER 15/17Z SHRA ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OVER TJBQ AND TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS UP TO 6
FEET AND/OR WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BE AT AROUND
15-20 KNOTS AT ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI AS WELL.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 88 / 20 20 40 50
STT 79 89 78 88 / 20 20 50 50

[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST TUE JUL 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE WEST
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH OF CUBA CONTINUES WEAKENING SLOWLY WHILE A TUTT IS
MOVING FROM THE EAST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY ALONG
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED FOR THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
LINGERING MOISTURE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WHICH MOVED SOUTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND DAYTIME HEATING. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. FOR WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION THURSDAY. AS A RESULT DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST...CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES.
THIS MEANS THAT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...AN EXTENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY VCSH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TAF SITES. AFTER 15/17Z SHRA ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OVER TJBQ AND TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS UP TO 6
FEET AND/OR WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BE AT AROUND
15-20 KNOTS AT ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI AS WELL.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 88 / 20 20 40 50
STT 79 89 78 88 / 20 20 50 50

That could be an excellent news for much of the EC if this twave could produce some beneficial rains! Let's hope my friends!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST WED JUL 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST BAND OF DRY AIR HAS BEEN ARRIVING OVER
PR/USVI OVERNIGHT AND REDUCED SHOWERS TO BARELY NOTICABLE ON
RADAR. MIMIC-TPW FROM CIMMS SUGGESTS THE AIR IS NOT QUITE AS DRY
AS GFS OR NESDIS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE. DO NOT HAVE
SOUNDER DATA OR RAOBS TO CONFIRM WHICH IS MORE CORRECT BUT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO ADJUST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
VERY MUCH. BELIEVE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OVER WESTERN
PR AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IS THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR
TODAY.

LATEST AREA OF SAHARAN AIR IS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH MOISTURE IN
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND REACH PEAK
VALUES OVER LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU. THE SAHARAN AIR
MIGHT PREVENT MUCH RAIN AGAIN OVER EASTERN PR/USVI BUT INCREASED
SHOWERS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTHWEST PR BY AFTERNOON. 00Z GFS
ALSO SHOWS A BROADER COVERAGE FOR THE MOISTURE RELATIVE TO NAM
WHILE ECMWF IS INBETWEEN THEM. IT HAS CAUSED GFS MOS PROBABILITY
OF RAIN TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IT IS FROM NAM FOR SAN JUAN...BUT
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN AIR HAVE LEANED TOWARDS LOWER
CHANCES. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH BETTER MOISTURE WITHOUT SAHARAN AIR
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAZE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
EXPECTED BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN P6SM. SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 17Z...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING SHRA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 14-21Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO MAINLY REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG 30N. IT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY BY SAT. GWW MODEL STILL INDICATES WAVES APPROACHING 7
FEET NORTHEAST OF BVI BY THU MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN TRADES NEAR LEEWARDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 77 / 20 40 50 30
STT 90 79 88 78 / 20 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST WED JUL 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW.
SAHARAN AIR WILL MOVE AFTER THE WAVE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE REGION BY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A GOOD INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOCAL AREA WILL SEE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO ARRIVAL OF
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER/SAL. FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TAF SITES AFTER 16/06Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
TO THE REGION. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN
SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ AFTER 16/14Z AND AFTER
16/16Z ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AND TJPS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING
SHRA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KT...
INCREASING AS THE WAVE APPROACHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 90 / 40 50 30 20
STT 79 88 78 89 / 50 50 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST THU JUL 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THRU EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
SKIMMING BY PR/USVI COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
17N THIS MORNING. TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY
CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LEEWARDS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR OVER
THE TOP OF THE WAVE AND HELPING SUPPRESS ITS DEVELOPMENT BEYOND
ITS CURRENT STRENGTH...AT LEAST FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE
QUITE STRONG...MAINLY FARTHER INTO CARIBBEAN AND AM PRETTY
CONFIDENT THIS WAVE WILL NOT IMPACT THE ISLANDS AT ALL. SAHARAN
AIR IS ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE WAVE AS IT IS MOVING
FASTER THAN THE SAHARAN AIR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS
TODAY WILL BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER WESTERN PR AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER SAT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM SAHARAN DUST
UNTIL AT LEAST TUE/WED.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON MON THOUGH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THAT NIGHT AND INTO TUE. WHILE IT WOULD BE
MOVING QUICKLY IT MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IN QUITE AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDINESS AND
SHRA ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THRU THIS
EVENING DUE TO TROPICAL WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA THRU THU
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN PR TERMINALS AND OVER CARIBBEAN
WATERS/MONA PASSAGE. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR ISX/KPK THRU AT LEAST 16Z.
LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL WAVE WILL KICK WINDS UP A LITTLE IN CARIBBEAN
TODAY...ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 7 FEET FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO BE BRIEFLY HIGHER.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NEAR ST. KITTS ATTM TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH PART OF AMZ732 LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 0 10 20 10
STT 89 79 88 78 / 20 10 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
207 PM AST THU JUL 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
WAVE...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS EVENING. THE WAVE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LATEST SATELLITES IMAGES AND OPTICAL
THICKNESS ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AIR LAYER WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...INDUCING A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...ONLY THE TYPICAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...PWAT VALUES WILL DECREASE STEADY BELOW 1.50
INCHES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY THOUGH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
WHILE IT WOULD BE MOVING QUICKLY IT MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN QUITE AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIODS WITH ONLY VICINITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHRA/TSRA THRU THU AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN PUERTO
RICO TERMINALS AND OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS/MONA PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL
EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE WILL KICK WINDS UP A LITTLE IN
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 7 FEET FOR SOME
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO BE BRIEFLY HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 10 20 10 10
STT 79 88 78 89 / 10 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Let's see what the Tropical Wave does as we need the rain badly but it may have a small window to develop.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area
of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected
to be marginally conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance through the weekend, with upper-level winds becoming
less favorable early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye interresting to note that a 1012 low pressure is attached with 93L.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015


A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A 1012
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N36W...MOVING W AT NEARLY 15-20
KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THAT ALONG WITH MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENT
WIND FLOW SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO
14N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 AM AST FRI JUL 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND TRAILING THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO AREA WITH A RIDGE AT AND BELOW 700 MB
THOUGH THE SAHARAN AIR IS LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

VERY DRY AIR WILL STICK WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
CHANCES OF RAINFALL. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR 50W BUT MOISTURE IS TRAILING WELL BEHIND IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHERE ANOTHER WAVE IS NEAR 35W-40W.
MODELS SHOW THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HIGHLY FRAGMENTED
AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS. IT WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT TO PREVENT THE WAVES FROM DEVELOPING FURTHER. 00Z GFS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN IN PUSHING THE WAVES
TOWARDS PR/USVI AND ITS TIMING IS NOW SIMILAR TO 12Z AND 00Z
ECWMF. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DELAY ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
UNTIL TUE WHILE IT IS DOUBTFUL WHETHER ANY WAVE AT ANY LEVEL WILL
ARRIVE THAT COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES BUT VSBY P6SM...FALSE OVC CIGS AT
IST/ISX DUE TO SAHARAN DUST. ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
PR BETWEEN 17Z-21Z...COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ AND MTN
TOP OBSCD. EAST WINDS BLO FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
SFC IN SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME CONCERN OVER EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY. IT WILL ONLY BE 2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE OR SO BUT
THERE IS ONLY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH 40 PERCENT RH BUT WINDS WILL NOT REACH
CRITICAL VALUES. WILL ISSUE RFD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. WINDS
WILL BE TOO WEAK TO PREVENT SEA BREEZES.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS MADE THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS TO LAY
DOWN SOMEWHAT THE REST OF THIS WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS 25N-30N
TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AND REMAIN WEAK WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 20 10 10 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 20 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions could be
marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance
through the weekend before becoming less conducive early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven