Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Healthy 93L continues westard...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015


A TROPICAL WAVE WAS RE-INTRODUCED TO THE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING.
THIS WAVE HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N37W TO A 1011 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N37W. THESE FEATURES ARE INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOW THE LOW DISSIPATING WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS LEAVING THE WAVE MOVING BY ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND E CARIBBEAN. TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 03N-16N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N-15N BETWEEN
29W-39W.

[cycloneye]

Is a wait and see if the drought that some of the islands are going thru is at least aliviated by this wave.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions could be
marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance
through the weekend before becoming much less conducive early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
218 PM AST FRI JUL 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY DRY AND VERY STABLE AIR MASS WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TUTT LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45 WEST
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD APPROACHING TO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY DRY AND VERY STABLE AIR MASS ENCOMPASSED
THE REGION FROM THE EAST LAST NIGHT. THIS DRY AIR MASS IS THE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIMITED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT..THE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR INDICATED ONLY FEW LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING WATERS...BUT NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND
AREAS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL ALSO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION AND WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT TO
PREVENT TROPICAL WAVES FROM FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 45W...WILL REACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WAVE WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE BELOW
OR NEAR 1.50 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO NEAR OR OVER 2.0 INCHES DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVE AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER. IS THIS VERIFY...A MORE
WET WEATHER PATTERN...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TUESDAY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES BUT VSBY P6SM WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS
WILL REMAIN THRU THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WATERS. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
IN THESE MARINES CONDITIONS UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 88 / 10 10 20 20
STT 79 89 78 89 / 10 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1100 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions
could be marginally conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance through the weekend before becoming much less conducive
by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MEANDER AND
WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS UPPER
RIDGE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BUILDS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROF ASSOCIATED TO THE TUTT WILL PASS
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A WEAK WEST MOVING INDUCED SURFACE TROF
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAZE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST WILL CLEAR TODAY. HOWEVER...DRY MID
LEVELS AND BELOW NORMAL PWAT VALUES WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIMITED
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR AND THE
MONA PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU EARLY IN
THE FCST PERIOD. FROM TUE-THU...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SAHARAN DUST LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION AND APPARENTLY
STILL GIVING SENSORS AT TIST/TISX FALSE CIGS...BELIEVE CONDS TO
IMPRV WI DAYLIGHT. VFR CONT ALL TAF SITES THO SHRA WL PASS MAINLY
THRU ATLANTIC WATERS TDY AND PSBL SHRA/TSRA SW PR IN AFT. MAYBE AN
OBSCD MTN OR TWO. WINDS BLW FL150 ENE 12-20 KT BCMG E TONITE-SUN.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...HIGHER SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY...THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO THE OFFSHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 79 / 20 10 10 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 20 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 1PM AST...SHOWERS
BEGAN TO DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA. THESE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER WEST PUERTO
RICO. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
DUE TO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL
AS THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO MONDAY NIGHT. PASSING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA...COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE THRU THE
PERIOD. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITE DURING MOST
OF THE FCST PRD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSC IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR... THEREFORE VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJPS/TJMZ. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEARING
AFTER SUNSET. SFC WINDS ENE 12-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS BCMG E AT 5 TO 15 KTS TONITE-SUN.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK DUE TO A WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE PASSAGE. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
THRU AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 79 87 / 10 10 20 20
STT 79 90 79 90 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY MID LEVELS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU LATE
MONDAY. UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SINK FARTHER
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA MAINTAINING TROUGH PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ERODES SLOWLY THRU MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE INCREASES ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AS PASSING SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AT LEAST THRU LATE MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BRIEF ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE FORECAST
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE WAVE ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS CREATING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THRU THE DAY AND TRIGGERING
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR.


&&

.AVIATION...QUITE A FEW SHRA SHOWING ON RADAR AND IMPLIED BY
SATELLITE FM PR EWD THRU LEEWARDS. BUT VRY FEW SHRA ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LWR THAN VFR CONDS AND THOSE WL BE BRF...WL AMD IF NEEDED.
WIND MON E-ESE 12-21 KT THRU MON.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASING BY MID WEEK DUE TO WIND SURGE BEHIND
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY BELOW 4 FEET. HOWEVER...LOCAL
SEA BREEZE WILL INCREASE WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 79 / 30 20 20 40
STT 89 78 89 79 / 40 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA... AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER 12:30 PM AST...SHOWERS BEGAN
TO DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST PUERTO RICO.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO TROPICAL
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS TUTT PATTERN
TO THE WEST. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MID
LEVELS REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TUESDAY
MORNING. PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
THESE AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OVER AND WEST OF THE
CORDILLERA...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
ALSO INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD. FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER BUILDING RIDGE
AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FCST PERIOD.
FEW SHRA ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS TJMZ AND
TJBQ...BUT WILL BE BRIEF AND AFTER SUNSET IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIMITED PASSING SHRA MAINLY ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...E PR AND THE USVI ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SFC
WIND ARE FROM THE E-ESE AT 12-21 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...
DIMINISHING AT 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT
BY MIDWEEK DUE TO TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 80 85 / 10 10 40 40
STT 79 88 79 86 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST MON JUL 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS... TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT TODAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA... AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW
CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LIMITED
AREAS OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 55 WEST WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY TUESDAY. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SO FAR ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE...BUT SO FAR CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE HAS
BEEN LIMITED AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DOMINANT SAHARAN AIR
LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION... THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL AID IN ENHANCING
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREAFTER...VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CLOUDINESS BY LATE THURSDAY AND THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS DRIER SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ONCE AGAIN TO MAINTAIN THE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT TJSJ...TISX...TIST AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FLYING
AREA UNTIL AT LEAST 20/14Z. AFTER 20/16Z SHRA O EVEN TSRA WILL
AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE
MORNING BUT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AND
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN SOME AREAS AFTER 20/14Z.

&&

.MARINE....OVERALL SEAS WERE 3 FEET OR LESS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LESS THAN 5 FEET TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSSTHE REGIONAL WATERS. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 80 / 20 50 50 40
STT 90 80 89 80 / 20 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

A couple of Tropical Waves will move thru the Eastern Caribbean in the next couple of days bringing scattered showers to the islands that are going thru the drought.However,it wont be sufficient to end the drought but at least aliviates a little bit.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST MON JUL 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WORK WEEK. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION DURING MOST OF THE WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 62W WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED MAINLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. EVENTUALLY THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVED ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE WATERS AND SOME OF THEM WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE WAVE.FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WAVE...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS SECOND WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THAT PERIOD. AFTER THURSDAY...A STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE AT JMZ/JBQ IN SHRA/TSRA TILL 20/22Z. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS LEEWARD TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...REACHING THE USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS JSJ AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ESE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TILL
20/22Z...DECREASING 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NEAR
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 5
FEET AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT
CHOPPY AND WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE ARRIVAL OF THESE WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 78 90 / 50 50 40 40
STT 79 89 78 89 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE JUL 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS... TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN DRY MID
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE NOW MOVING CROSSING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND REACHING EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE TRAILING
EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS NAAPS AEROSOL AND SAHARAN AIR
LAYER PRODUCT...ALL SUGGEST THAT THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES WHICH
WAS NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR BY LATE MORNING AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE
AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT...WILL LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE OVERALL CONVECTION HOWEVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND THE PRESENCE
OF SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS ALREADY MIXED IN AND ACCOMPANYING THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO
UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ISOLATED AREAS AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTEDON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HOWEVER... NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL 21/14Z IN PASSING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING.
THIS MOISTURE WILL CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ.
ESE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TILL
21/22Z...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
NEAR SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA SUGGESTS SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND
AND WINDS 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
TRADE WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 79 / 40 30 40 30
STT 89 81 89 80 / 50 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST TUE JUL 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST DURING THE WEEK. A DRY AIR MASS
WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL REGION
BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS A DRY AIR MASS REACH
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. AT THIS TIME...THE RADAR DOPPLER DETECTED A
FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HOT AND
HAZY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER
THURSDAY A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST
UNTIL THE END OF THE CURRENT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU 21/22Z AT JMZ AND
JBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. PASSING SHRA EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING
AT WINDWARD TERMINALS. ESE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEE BREEZE
VARIATIONS EXPECTED TILL 21/22Z...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA REPORT SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 18 KNOTS. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 30 40 30 30
STT 81 89 80 89 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST WED JUL 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL JUST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS
COMPUTER GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES INCREASING STEADY FROM
AROUND 1.7 INCHES THIS MORNING TO MORE THAN 2.0 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...DECREASING BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WELL BELOW 2.O INCHES.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO TODAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE MODELS SUGGEST DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILING
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
UNDER BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR ACROSS PR/USVI TERMINALS THRU WED MORNING.
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND USVI TERMINAL AS
PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THRU WED MORNING. FALSE CIGS AT
IST/ISX DUE TO SAHARAN DUST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BETWEEN 16Z-
22Z...LOCALLY INDUCED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR IMPACTING MAINLY TJBQ/TJMZ. THE 22/00Z TJSJ UPPER AIR
SOUNDING INDICATED LOW LEVEL E TO ESE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY CALM TO SLIGHTLY
CHOPPY...WITH WAVES UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...UP TO 4 FEET ELSEWHERE...AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 40 30 30 30
STT 89 82 90 79 / 40 40 40 30

[Gustywind]

What a night my friends! Pretty convective twave is crossing Guadeloupe and the EC. Nice lightnings show and thunder were doting my area between at least 2 streak hours
Thus, yellow alert have been activated for Guadeloupe due to a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Bad weather conditions should continue till 6 PM given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe. During the last 12 hours, rainfall reached 33 millimeters and more on the island, and 40 to 60 millimeters in the Northwest side of the island. Be safe and dry all my carib friends!
Hey, boricua Cycloneye hope that PR will have some good rains from this twave because of the persistent drought

Here is the chart http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane
Full weather forecast: (french version): http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

[Gustywind]

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe

(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M


Conditions at
Jul 22, 2015 - 08:00 AM EDT Jul 22, 2015
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 3 MPH (3 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 73 F (23 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.03 in. Hg (1017 hPa)
ob TFFR 221200Z AUTO 10003KT 9999 -RA FEW060/// SCT070/// BKN094/// ///TCU 23/22 Q1017




24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 8 AM (12) Jul 22 73 (23) 71 (22) 30.03 (1017) E 3 light rain
7 AM (11) Jul 22 73 (23) 71 (22) 30.03 (1017) ENE 5 light rain; mist
6 AM (10) Jul 22 75 (24) 71 (22) 30.03 (1017) ESE 9 light rain
5 AM (9) Jul 22 75 (24) 73 (23) 30.03 (1017) ENE 5 light rain
4 AM (8) Jul 22 75 (24) 73 (23) 30.00 (1016) W 3 light rain
3 AM (7) Jul 22 75 (24) 73 (23) 30.00 (1016) Variable 2 light rain
2 AM (6) Jul 22 78 (26) 75 (24) 30.00 (1016) E 9
1 AM (5) Jul 22 80 (27) 75 (24) 30.00 (1016) ESE 5

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 64W S OF 20N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 30 KT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER
THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA BETWEEN PLUMBS
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-63W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 64W-68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 60W-66W.

[Gustywind]

Note the veering of the wind briefly on the weather station of Dominica at Melville Airport...


Current Weather Conditions:
Melville Hall Airport, Dominica

(TDPD) 15-32N 061-18W 14M


Conditions at
Jul 22, 2015 - 08:00 AM EDT Jul 22, 2015
Wind from the WSW (250 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.06 in. Hg (1018 hPa)
ob TDPD 221200Z 25004KT 9999 -RA SCT014CB SCT016 BKN070 25/24 Q1018

24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 8 AM (12) Jul 22 77 (25) 75 (24) 30.06 (1018) WSW 5 light rain
7 AM (11) Jul 22 77 (25) 73 (23) 30.06 (1018) WNW 3 rain with thunder
6 AM (10) Jul 22 77 (25) 73 (23) 30.03 (1017) W 1 rain with thunder
5 AM (9) No Data

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST WED JUL 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THRU FRIDAY...
WITH RIDGE PATTERN BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST AS A SURFACE HIGH HOLDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
THE USVI. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHORT LIVED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST PR. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST PR THROUGH SUNSET.

TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD AREAS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECT
AND DIURNAL HATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW PR.

A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY
EVENING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY
SKIES... WITH LIGHT EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS USVI
AND THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PR...FOLLOWED BY
A FEW LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PR. SAHARAN DUST
WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA STILL POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJBQ AND TJMZ THRU 22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS COULD
AFFECT THESE TAF SITES FM TIME TO TIME. FOR TONIGHT...SOME SHRA
WILL MOVE NEAR THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINAL...PRODUCING SOME
VCSH AT TIMES. SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY CALM TO SLIGHTLY
CHOPPY...WITH WAVES UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...
AND UP TO 4 FEET ELSEWHERE. WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&
.CLIMATE... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 93 DEGREES WAS SET AT
SAN JUAN METRO AREA TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN
1974.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 10 20 20 20
STT 81 90 81 89 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST THU JUL 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
DRIFT WESTWARD WHILE WEAKEN THRU SATURDAY. RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY AND HAZY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE FEW SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY EVENING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES...
WITH LIGHT EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS USVI AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...FOLLOWED BY A FEW LOCALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FEW -SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS N AND S OF PR AN EN
ROUTE BTW ERN AND U.S.V.I. SCT LYS 020...050...AND SCT-BKN250 MAINLY
SE OF PR AND OVR VIRGIN ISLANDS. SE WNDS BLO FL200 BCMG SSW ABV UP
TO FL400. SFC WND LGT AND VRB TO CALM BCMG FM E AST 10 -15 KTS AFT
23/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 91 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 81 90 79 / 30 20 20 20

[msbee]

Good morning everyone
The Saharan dust and the drought continues on St Maarten as it does for much of the Caribbean. I cannot remember seeing it this bad. Everything is dry and brown. We need rain desperately.
On another note, the underwater volcano Kick' em Jenny is acting up. Grenada and neighborhood islands have been placed on orange alert.
http://www.antillean.org/kick-em-jenny-eruption-246/