Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Invest 94L has weaken a lot and is no longer a system to develop.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms near a weak area of low pressure located
well to the west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands have been
diminishing. Environmental conditions are not favorable, and
development of this system is not expected while it moves westward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BY EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...DRY AND STABLE AIR RETURNS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES THRU MIDWEEK. MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS AND WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PR. THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. EARLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE USVI/EASTERN
PR AND ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY DUE THE SURGE IN MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS. DRYING IS EXPECTED QUICKLY LATE MONDAY THRU MIDWEEK...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT
FROM MIDWEEK FORWARD...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PASS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE FREQUENCY OF EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS/AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 01/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN
PASSING SHRA VCTY TJMZ. FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH
PASSING SHRA. SFC WND FM EAST AT 15-20 KT W/HIGHER GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BCMG FM E 5-10 KTS AFT 22Z.


&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BUOY RUNNING NEAR 5
FEET. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN
THE LOW 20S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AN INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 90 / 20 20 40 40
STT 78 89 80 89 / 20 20 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. At least scattered showers will fall today thru Monday in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands as a Tropical Wave moves thru the area.And the week will not be bone dry so a small relief to the drought.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW/TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN
DUSTS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WETTER
TRADES WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PR EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW/TUTT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED THE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...REACHING
A MAXIMUM OF 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 03/06Z. HOWEVER...
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WAVE.
AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE
PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN...DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MAS WILL REDUCE
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM
MONDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WETTER TRADE WINDS WILL
BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRF MVFR XPCTD IN SOME SHRA THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL
VFR CONT. SCT SHRA/TSRA CNTRL/WEST PR SUN AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS.
VFR WITH ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE. WIND BLW FL100 E 15-25 KT TODAY...
INCR LATE SUN NITE AND MON TO 20-40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FEET AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 20KT. ALTHOUGH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 40 40 30 30
STT 80 89 79 90 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER PR BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED EARLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...THEN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PR. BY MID
AFTERNOON...MAX RAINFALL TOTALS WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE
BACK EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STABLE AIR AND SAL IS EXPECTED TO FILL OVER THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCES OF
RAIN LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK A WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST...AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND EARLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR AND TRADE SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN PR/USVI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA W PR TIL 02/22Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR CIGS IN TJMZ
TO VCTY SHRA. FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND USVI WITH PASSING SHRA.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS
EVENING GENERATING MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER TIST TISX TJSJ AND
TJPS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ACROSS
THE USVI AND PR WATERS. EAST WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
IN THE LOW 20S. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 40 30 30 30
STT 80 89 79 90 / 50 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE EAST AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
THEN ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNT WERE LESS THAN HALF INCH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...A SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF SHRA/TSRA ARE MOVING CLOSE TO TJPS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST...AFFECTING TJPS THROUGH 03/10Z AND
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME VCSH AT TJMZ. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER
03/12Z LEAVING ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 5-10KT THROUGH
03/13Z THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY...STILL FROM THE
EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.FIRE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 45-50 PERCENT AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. SEE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 30 30 30 20
STT 90 79 90 78 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STRONG
TRADE WIND CAP WILL MAINTAIN HAZY SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THEN...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE WEEKEND
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE.

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THRU WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...A WETTER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE USVI
AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. AS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH UPPER LOW ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WNDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 90 78 89 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN
ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SOME
HAZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY UNDER A WEAK SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY VERY BRIEF -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 04/18Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND TJMZ
AFTER 04/18Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER
04/13Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 04/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET
DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 80 / 10 20 20 20
STT 92 78 91 78 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
AND EARLY THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA...STAYING JUST NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN IS STARTS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE LOW EXITS THE EAST COAST OF THE
US ON SATURDAY...THEN BOTH REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE
USVI AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PR IN
THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI
WILL HAVE AN INCREASE UP TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THIS MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PR. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THIS PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
JUST BE INCREASING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLOSE TO
NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS THE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OTHER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. BUT FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF PR AND THE USVI...ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS NOT
UNTIL REALLY LATE NEXT WEEK...THAT WE SEE A GOOD INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS TOO FAR IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD SO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH ACROSS THE TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TJBQ UNTIL MID MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PR AFTER 05/16Z...CAUSING VCSH/VCTS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH
POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA AT TJMZ AFTER 05/17Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY CALM STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN THE MORNING HOURS SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6
FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA
PASSAGE. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST THU AUG 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC STARTING ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AT OR BELOW
WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE
USVI AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM ABOUT 1.5 INCHES TO ABOUT 1.3
INCHES BY LATE THIS MORNING...HOLDING AT ABOUT 1.3-1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE DAY...THEN INCREASING SLIGHTLY AGAIN THIS
EVENING...ONCE AGAIN CAUSING BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN PR. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WESTERN AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE STILL EXPECT PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL JUST BE INCREASING THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AS THE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND 1.5-1.8
INCHES. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
OTHER THAN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. BUT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PR AND THE USVI...ONLY
BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY AND
FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING...THERE IS ALSO
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND NO SAHARAN DUST. THIS MAY GIVE WAY TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT...THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS ACROSS WESTERN PR MOST OF THE DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY BRIEF -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST/TISX/TJSJ
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PR AND MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AFT 06/17Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST AT 5-10KT...INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AND GUSTY AFTER 06/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TRANQUIL FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET AND THE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU AUG 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AT OR BELOW WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES..WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET. LOCAL REGION CONTINUES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
MAINTAINS RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BETTER MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE.

IN THE LONG TERM RANGE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION. ALTHOUGH SOME COMPUTER MODEL
SUGGEST BETTER MOISTURE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS TOO FAR
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD SO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN PR WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER TJMZ AND THE
VICINITY OF TJBQ THROUGH 06/22Z...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE TJSJ/TIST/TISX OVERNIGHT. WINDS FROM THE EAST
TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10-20KT WITH HIGHER GUST AND SEA BREEZE
VARIATION...DECREASING AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SEAS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND
THE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 90 / 20 20 20 30
STT 79 89 79 88 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST FRI AUG 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LOCAL AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST ON
MONDAY...WHERE IT WILL STAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THOUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TUTT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT WEAKENS...SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY PRODUCING LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF
RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT...BUT THE TOTALS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IF WE ADD
THE TOTAL FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER THE RAINFALL HAS GREATLY
DIMINISHED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.

OVERALL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT EASTERN PR AS THE WEAK WAVE
APPROACHES.

SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS QUICK TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...DIMINISHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR
LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SO IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER THIS
WEEKEND...THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN SOMEWHAT AND LOOK MORE LIKE IT
HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY
STARTING ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN TOP OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY JMZ AND JBQ. VCSH
POSSIBLE AT JSJ/JPS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15-20KT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4
FEET AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WITH LOCAL BUOYS
CURRENTLY CONFIRMING THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS SOME OF THE LOCAL BEACHES IN MAINLAND
PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA...WHILE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LOW
ACROSS THE USVI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 91 79 / 20 30 30 10
STT 89 80 89 79 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST FRI AUG 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE NOW SHOWING EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ON VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP...SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE
AND MOVING WEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. MEANWHILE AT LEAST SOME OF ITS
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTH BY A LOW MAINLY ABOVE
600 MB NEAR 26N/61W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AS SEEN BY
SATELLITE APPEARS TO HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT CONNECTED TO INTER-
TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AT SOUTHERN END OF LESSER ANTILLES.
BELIEVE THAT THE 12Z TFFR WAS SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY SUBSIDENCE
OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION GOING ON NORTHEAST OF THAT STATION SO
AM NOT CERTAIN THE 1.59 INCHES AS MEASURED IS QUITE REPRESENTABLE
OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL AIR...THOUGH SOME SHEAR CERTAINLY OCCCURED.
THERE MAY STILL BE RESPECTABLE MOISTURE STILL APPROACHING
USVI/PR...AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES GFS
SEES FOR 12Z-18Z ON SAT YET THAT REPRESENTS ONLY SEASONAL LEVELS.
CONTINUED LACK OF SAHARAN AIR UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK GIVES
BETTER HOPE OF SHOWERS BUT DO NOT YET SEE SIGNFICANT RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT/XPCTD THIS AFT/EVE XCP MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA
MOSTLY CNTRL AND W PR...INCLUDING TJMS/TJBQ AND SOME OBSCD MTNS
ESPECIALLY WEST. THE SAME TO OCCUR SAT AFT. BRF MVFR IN SCT SHRA
TONITE/EARLY SAT ALL TAF SITES XCP TJMZ/TJBQ. BRF MVFR IN SCT
SHRA ACRS ISLANDS SAT AFT AND PSBL TSRA WEST PR. WINDS FL100 TO
SFC ESE 8-18 KT GRADUALLY BCMG SE TONITE CONT SAT.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NEAR 25N WILL SLOWLY MERGE
WITH THE LARGE MID-ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND
RELATIVEL LOW SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 90 / 30 30 10 20
STT 79 89 79 90 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST SAT AUG 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SLOWLY SHIFTS WEST...
RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. A MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 48W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING THE USVI AND
THE EAST COASTAL AREA OF PUERTO RICO.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE/INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CORDILLERA IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT...RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST...RESULTING IN EROSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THEREFORE...UNDER BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOCALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 48W WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR TWO INCHES WILL
BRUSH SOUTH AND WEST PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY...AND OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS COULD BE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DO NOT YET SEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA EN ROUTE FROM THE USVI TO EASTERN PR WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE VICINITY OF TIST/TISX/TJSJ...EXPECT TEMPO BKN
LAYERS AND SHRA. ALSO...MAX TOPS 30-35 KFT...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MTN TOP OBSCD OVER EASTERN PR TIL 14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...CREATING MVFR AND MTN TOP OBSCD FROM 17Z-21Z. IMPACTING
MAINLY TJBQ/TJMZ. EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5-15KT BLO FL200...BCMG LGT/VRB
TO NR FL250...THEN FM W AND INCR W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 2-5 FEET WILL PREVAIL THE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 40 10 10 20
STT 89 79 90 79 / 40 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST SAT AUG 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED MANY AREAS IN PUERTO RICO TODAY. A STREAMER DEVELOPED
FROM EL YUNQUE RAINFOREST...NORTHWEST TO SAN JUAN. SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AFFECTING AGUADILLA...ISABELA...AND
QUEBRADILLAS. ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPED LATE OVER PONCE AND VILLALBA.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH VERY DRY
AIR ENCOMPASSING THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE EAST.

MID AND LONG TERM...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR STILL PSBL TJMZ/TJBQ THRU LATE AFT WI OBSCD
MTNS CNTRL/W PR AND MVFR IN SCT SHRA NR TKPK/TJSJ/TJPS TIL 20Z. OTHW
VFR WI ISOLD SHRA TONITE...VRY BRF MVFR PSBL. MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
AGAIN SUN AFT TJMZ/TJBQ. WIND FL100 TO SFC SE 12-18 KT BCMG ESE 13-
21 KT BY EVE CONT THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 89 / 10 10 20 20
STT 79 90 79 90 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST SUN AUG 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER TROUGH PATTERN TO
THE WEST AND RIDGE PATTERN TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 52W...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER WATERS...
NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED.

UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W
WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH SUNDAY. DO NOT
YET SEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...PSBL MVFR IN SCT SHRA/-TSRA
AT TJMZ/TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-22Z. WIND BLO FL100 FM SE AT 10-15 KT
BCMG ESE AT 15-22 KT BETWEEN 14Z-23Z. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADES WITH WEAK RIDGING NORTH OF LOCAL
ISLANDS. SEAS 2-5 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 92 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST SUN AUG 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...LATE THIS WEEK
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW AROUND 54 WEST
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR MOVED IN TODAY...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES WERE WARM TO HOT
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO WITH ONE
WEATHER OBSERVER REPORTING 94 DEGREES AT 1 PM AST. THERE WAS ALSO
LITTLE RAINFALL COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...SOME OF THEM MODERATE...AND
SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS STREAMING OFF THE USVI BUT STAYING OVER THE
WATERS. THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND
EASTERN PR. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THE USVI ON MONDAY MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW-PR WHEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS.

MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY INDUCED WITH
A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING...CAUSING
AGAIN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS AND THEN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PR IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD BE
JUST ABOUT 2 INCHES AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA COULD HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...IN ADDITION...WE DO NOT EXPECT
SAHARAN DUST FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS THEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

THEREAFTER...WE RETURN TO A PATTERN OF LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH
ACROSS TJMZ/TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON AND A BRIEF VCSH ACROSS TIST AND
TISX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE EXPECTED...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO ESE
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15KT THROUGH 09/23Z...THEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10KT FROM THE EAST.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2 TO 5 FEET WITH WINDS UP TO 17
KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOCAL BUOYS ARE
CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF AROUND 3 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 89 79 89 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST MON AUG 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...LATE THIS WEEK
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW AROUND 57 WEST
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY...INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS REACHING ISOLATED AREAS OF THE USVI JUST BEFORE DAY
BREAK. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER LAND AREAS WERE JUST
TRACE AMOUNTS. FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS AND THEY COULD
REACH PARTS OF EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. LIMITING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PR DUE DIURNAL EFFECTS AND
AVAILABLE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED AS TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OVER ST. CROIX...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. DURING THIS
PERIOD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TO AFFECT
THESE AREAS AND SPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD XCP IN SOME ISOLD SHRA THRU TUE. FEW OBSCD
WEST PR MTNS IN AFT. WIND BLW FL100 MAINLY E AT 12-20 KT BCMG SE ON
TUE.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET...AND WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS FROM THE EAST WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF
PR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 20 10 20 30
STT 89 79 90 78 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON AUG 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 57 WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION TOMORROW.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A HOT AND SUNNY MORNING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. OTHERS SHOWERS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE SAN
JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. THROUGH 2 PM AST...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE MAINLY BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF ONE
AND A HALF INCH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY AROUND 57 WEST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE WILL
INCREASE THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION
STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...BETTER MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES INDICATED THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANY BY A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE AND GOOD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 2.10 INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH BETTER MOISTURE FRIDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCD...BKN CEILING...AND SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY
OVER TJMZ/TJBQ DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...SHRA ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TNCM/TKPK...BRIEF MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS MOMENT. SURFACE
WINDS MAINLY E AT 10-20 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND GUSTY IN
AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA...BCMG CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 10 20 30 30
STT 79 90 78 90 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
606 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
BRING PERIODS OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH CAP ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS AS TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECT
THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FA. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW OF THEM BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST COASTAL
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL OVER LAND WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A DRIER AIR MASS IS STILL
AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...THIS DRY AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING...BUT CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BY NOON TODAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS INDUCED BY UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ST. CROIX...AND IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR...BUT SPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PR.

AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES AFTER THE WAVE PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY...CAP INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WIND WARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA SPCLLY WEST PR
TUE/WED AFT INCLUDING TJMZ/TJBQ AND SOME OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLW
FL100 E-ESE 14-22 KT DECR 6-16 KT ON WED.

&&

.MARINE...AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 0
STT 90 80 89 79 / 40 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SHIFTS
FURTHER WEST...RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE EAST AND
HOLD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
EXPECTED THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT
IN SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...WITH PASSING SHOWERS
PERSISTING ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE WAVE
PULLS AWAY TONIGHT...A RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH LIGHT EARLY MORNING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BULK OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. DO NOT YET SEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCD...BKN CEILING...AND SHRA/TSRA ARE
LIKELY OVER TJMZ/TJBQ DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. ALSO...BRIEF SHRA...MAY MOVE
OVER TJSJ/TIST/TISX WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE E TO ESE AT 10-20 KT WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA... BCMG CALM
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE AT 2 TO 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6
FEET. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE EXPOSE WATERS
AND THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 20 20 10 20
STT 80 90 80 90 / 10 20 20 20