Caribbean - Central America Weather

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST WED AUG 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
FARTHER WEST AND REPOSITION OVER EASTERN CUBA BY FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
TO HELP MAINTAIN OVERALL DRY MID LEVEL CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. RIDGE IS TO THEN WEAKEN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND TRAILING MOISTURE WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN FROM
THE EAST LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME BRUSHED
PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OR REPORTED OVER LAND.FRAGMENTS
OF TRAILING MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...AS A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE PRESENT CONDITIONS
AND CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES TO QUICKLY DECREASE TO BELOW
1.50 INCHES BY THURSDAY...AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY...AS TUTT LOW IS
FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BRIEF SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TIST/TISX/TJSJ UNTIL 12/16Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 12/16Z...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR TJBQ. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TO 10-15 KT AFTER 12/12Z CONTINUED FROM THE EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE... SEAS WILL RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 2 TO 5 FEET. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KNOTS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 10
STT 90 79 88 79 / 20 20 20 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST WED AUG 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER WEST...RIDGE PATTERN
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE EAST AND HOLD THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A BUILDING
RIDGE PATTERN...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH BRIEF AND LIGHT EARLY MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY...
AS A TUTT LOW ESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BULK OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND NW QUADRANT OF PR. BRIEF
SHRA/+SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER TJBQ/TJMZ TILL
12/23Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS DROPPING AT 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH LAND BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATER AND MONA PASSAGE...
ELSEWHERE AT 2 TO 4 FEET. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
AT 15 KTS OR LESS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 20 20 10 30
STT 80 91 80 91 / 20 20 20 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST THU AUG 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW EAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
WHILE SHIFTING FARTHER WEST AND OVER EASTERN CUBA BY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ALOFT TODAY AND INTO UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE
BUT WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE MID LEVEL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED
BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL
BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ALSO ERODE THE CAP
INVERSION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS. A
DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREAS
TODAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THE REGION TO REMAIN
ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS TO HOLD
AND PROMOTE THE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SAT DERIVED PWAT FORECAST PRODUCT
AND ANALYSIS...AND UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA... ALL SUGGEST OVERALL
PWAT VALUES DECREASING TO BELOW 1.50 ON FRIDAY AS THE DRIER AIR
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL THE BEST POTENTIAL SO FAR APPEARS TO BE ON
SUNDAY AS TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STILL NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...
AS RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE
WOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH ONLY PERIPHERAL MOISTURE MOVING
TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. SO FOR NOW...NO WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS MAY
HOWEVER EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED SPOTS ESPECIALLY DURING
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BRIEF SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TIST/TISX/TJSJ UNTIL 13/14Z. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 13/16Z...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR TJBQ. WINDS WILL
BE FM THE EAST AT AROUND 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TO 10-15 KT AFTER 13/12Z CONTINUED FROM THE EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET
BUT OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE MONA PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS OR SO IN SOME AREAS
DURG THE AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 79 / 10 10 30 10
STT 90 79 88 78 / 20 20 20 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST THU AUG 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH ALOFT WAS DRIFTING TOWARD WESTERN CARIBBEAN
OVER CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AN
EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
US VIRGIN ISLANDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO PREVAILED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH EL YUNQUE STREAMER PRODUCED SHOWERS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
METROPOLITAN AREA OF SAN JUAN. ANOTHER STREAMER DEVELOPED IN THE
WAKE OF ST CROIX PRODUCING SOME PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND
AND THEIR SURROUNDING WATERS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPED OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WERE OBSERVED OVER
THE MUNICIPALITIES OF GUAYNABO AND BAYAMON. SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS UNTIL SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PUERTO RICO...THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE LOCAL WATERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER CUBA AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PR
AND THE USVI AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BRIEF SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TIST/TISX/TJSJ UNTIL 13/14Z. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 13/16Z...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR TJBQ. WINDS WILL
BE FM THE EAST AT AROUND 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TO 10-15 KT AFTER 13/12Z CONTINUED FROM THE EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 1 TO 3
FEET...HOWEVER OVER THE MONA PASSAGE THEY CAN EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN
2 AND 4 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHOWER CONVECTION. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 79 91 / 30 30 10 40
STT 79 88 78 90 / 30 30 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
THE NORTH AND OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
PREVAILED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH EL YUNQUE STREAMER PRODUCED SHOWERS WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN AND AROUND THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF
SAN JUAN. ANOTHER STREAMER DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF ST CROIX
PRODUCING SOME PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND AND THEIR
SURROUNDING WATERS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES OF THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO...THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF LARES...SAN SEBASTIAN...MOCA...AGUADA AND
AGUADILLA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS UNTIL
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS GOING TO PRODUCE BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PUERTO RICO...THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE LOCAL WATERS.

TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE REGION. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HAVING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND JMZ AND JBQ THROUGH
14/22Z IN SHRA/TSRA. VCSH AT JSJ AND IST/ISX POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KT WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DROPPING AT 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 4 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS
UP TO 5 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH THE WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE LOCAL BUOYS ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS REPORTED SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT
WITH WINDS BELOW 18 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR THE SAN JUAN BUOY WHICH
REPORT VALUES UP TO 20 KT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 91 78 / 30 10 40 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 30 20 40 40

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE ALSO DETECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.

A SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION UNTIL TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES FROM NEAR 1.70 INCHES
THIS MORNING TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
PUERTO RICO TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AREA REMAIN OVER LAND AREAS
WITH A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER LOCAL WATERS. CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR
IN PR AND USVI UNTIL AFT 15/16Z. IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PASSING SHRA
OVER TNCM AND TKPK WILL CONT INTERMITTENTLY THRU 16/00Z WITH BRIEF
MVFR LIKELY. THIS MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN USVI BY 15/12Z AND IN PR
BY 15/14Z CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS. AFT 15/16Z EXPECT
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY WRN PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH MVFR CONDS.
WINDS E TO ESE 10 TO 20 KT BCMG ESE TO SE AFT 15/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITION WILL REMAIN WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CALM TO SOME CHOP AS WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 78 / 40 20 30 30
STT 88 79 87 79 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL AREA LIES BETWEEN A SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT TO THE NORTH. THE TUTT IS FORECAST
TO SPLIT INTO TWO CELLS...ONE OF THEM RELOCATING WEST OF PUERTO
RICO ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL WAVE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST OVER PR AND AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PORTIONS PR AND THE USVI SINCE THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH...MOST OF THE ISLANDS HAVE RECEIVED SOME RAIN...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...
NORTH CENTRAL AN NORTHWEST PR SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN PR AND
USVI HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 0.25-0.5 INCHES EARLY TODAY. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OVER PR.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY...
HOWEVER HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LINGER
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH/TUTT WILL RELOCATE WEST OF PUERTO
RICO...FAVORING THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS HIGH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS
RICH MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD DYNAMICS ALOFT. ON MONDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...LIMITING THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORMAL OR
BELOW NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THEN...THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA THRU LATE SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS TJBQ AND TJSJ THRU 22Z. SSE WINDS OF 10-20 WILL
PREVAIL BELOW 20K FT..WITH HIGHER GUST NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 89 / 60 60 30 30
STT 79 87 79 90 / 70 70 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY. A
TROPICAL ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER
HISPANIOLA TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TRAILING MOISTURE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL MONDAY. IN FACTS...PWAT VALUES OVER 2.00
INCHES...IN SOME INSTANCES UP TO 2.20...ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THESE PWAT VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE TO NORMAL VALUES BY MID
WEEK WITH A RETURN TO A TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA...ISOLD TSRA MAX TOPS NR 400 OVR THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH SOME SHRA OVR THE USVI AND ERN PR TAF SITES TIL
16/14Z. MULTIPLE SCT-BKN CLD LAYERS 020...050..100...250 OVR FLYING
AREA. MTN TOP OBSCR OVR ERN PR. AFT 16/15Z... SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVR THE MTN RANGE OF PR...THEN STEER TOWARDS THE N AND NW COASTAL
SECTIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ. OCNL MVFR CONDS THRU THE
PRD DUE TO LOW CLDS AND SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. WNDS BLO 100 FM SSE 15-20
KT...BCMG FM ENE 10-15KTS UP FL200...THEN BACKING AND INCR W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630
AM AST FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...SEAS OF 5 FEET
OR LESS AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 60 30 30 20
STT 87 78 89 78 / 70 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a surface low pressure system is
producing a concentrated area of disturbed weather a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance over the next several days while
it moves westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent



Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave and a surface low pressure system located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands are producing a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, which are beginning
to show signs of organization.Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
could form by midweek as the disturbance moves westward at around 15
mph.


* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

gatorcane,by mistake I deleited your post but I say bring the rain to the islands if it does not develop.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave and a surface low pressure system located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands are producing a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, which are beginning
to show signs of organization.Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
could form by midweek as the disturbance moves westward at around 15
mph.


* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

First mention as a special feature...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR
10N27W...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS REMAINED
PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND 31W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
CONTINUES W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE CHANCES OF THIS LOW DEVELOPING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE ATLC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 FOR MORE
DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
331 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT WILL LINGER WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL LINGER UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE
WEEK...LIMITING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT HAVE COMBINED WITH GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS HIGH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINS AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PR THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ON MONDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...LIMITING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. THEN...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND...SO THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS ARE MINIMAL...EXCEPT FOR THE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER WESTERN
PR EACH AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST WILL REACH
THE LOCAL REGION PROBABLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE AFFECTING THE FLYING AREA. BKN
CLD LAYERS 020...050..100 PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. MTN TOP
OBSCR EXPECTED OVER MTN RANGE OF PR. SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVR THE MTN RANGE OF PR...THEN STEER TOWARDS THE N AND NW
COASTAL SECTIONS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ. OCNL IFR/MVFR
CONDS THRU AT LEAST 17/00Z DUE TO LOW CLDS AND SHRA/ISOLD TSRA.
WNDS BLO 100 FM SSE 15-20 KT...BCMG FM ENE 10-15KTS UP FL200...THEN
BACKING AND INCR W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 30 30 20 20
STT 78 89 78 89 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system during the next few
days and a tropical depression could form by midweek while it moves
westward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MON AUG 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST
TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST TO OVER
HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FROM THE EAST OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK GRADIENTS WILL
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT...BUT A MOIST PATCH WILL COME FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHS FOLLOWED BY MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE EACH TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC KEEPING EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP DAILY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS OVER WATER DEVELOPED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND
A FEW PUSHED ONSHORE IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO. OVERALL AMOUNTS WERE
LIGHT THIS MORNING AND SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS MOVE WEST OVER
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. FEW IF ANY SHOWERS WERE SEEN AROUND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A WEAK PULSE CROSSING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
THIS MORNING WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS AND IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW. ANOTHER PULSE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WILL
BRING SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER MOISTURE WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY WITH A SLIGHT
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS NEAR 30 WEST LONGITUDE. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER GIVES IT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT BY
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE GENERAL TREND OF INCREASING
MOISTURE LATER THIS WEEK WHETHER OR NOT THIS PARTICULAR LOW
DEVELOPS. MODELS ARE BRINING OTHER LOWS OFF AFRICA INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ AND BRIEF SHRA MAY MOVE ACROSS
TNCM/TKPK AFT 17/17Z. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEA BREEZE FORMATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER 17/12Z.


&&

.MARINE...ATLANTIC SEAS WILL GENERALLY FALL TO AROUND 3 FEET AFTER
TODAY. SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM 3 TO 5 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE CULEBRINAS RIVER HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY SLOW
COMING DOWN...BUT SHOULD FALL BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET BY
8 AM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 20 30 20 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 20 40 20 30

[Gustywind]

Interresting discussion from the Pro Mets of Antigua... let's monitor 96 L in case of.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
05:03 UTC AUGUST 17 2015

DISCUSSION ..SATELLITE AND RADAR DETECTED BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE WEAK UNSTABLE CONDITIONS GENERATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THE LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH POISED TO ENTER THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. WHEREAS THE 18Z MODEL RUN LIMIT THE MOISTURE, THE 00Z MODEL RUN SLIGHTLY INCREASES THE MOISTURE LEVEL AND AS SUCH MAKES IT A BIT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR BRIEF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.

OF INTEREST IS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 1980 MILE AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE 00Z MODEL RUN SHOWS AN INTERESTED PICTURE. SOME OF THE HURRICANE MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OF COURSE THIS IS JUST A PRELIMINARY FORECAST BASED UPON THE LATEST INFORMATION. IT MEANS THAT WE HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT AND FOLLOW THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.



FORECASTER

ORVIN PAIGE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical
depression will likely form by the middle of the week while the
system moves westward or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of
the week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward near
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N31W. CIRA LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AMPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE LOW WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST MON AUG 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY MID-LEVELS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGE PATTERN
STRENGTHENS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN REGION. AS A RESULT...STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
MOST OF THE WEEK...LIMITING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS SPREAD OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...LIMITING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. BRIEF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND WEST PUERTO RICO. WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLANDS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS USVI AND
EASTERN PR. THEN...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SAHARAN DUST WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER GIVES IT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA ARE
STILL UNKNOWN. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
NEAR TJMZ...PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CIGS. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE E-NE
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE....TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SEAS OF
2 TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 90 / 30 20 20 20
STT 78 89 78 90 / 40 20 30 30