Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 220935
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 1000 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN THIS MORNING. HURRICANE DANNY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST AROUND 10 MPH AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
MONDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS..WITH FEW AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. REST OF THE AREA WAS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. FOR TODAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR SUNDAY...VERY DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION...WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AROUND 1.0 INCHES.
THIS IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THEREFORE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

OUR ATTENTION IS ON HURRICANE DANNY...WHICH WAS LOCATED AT 5 AM
AST NEAR 1000 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. HURRICANE DANNY
STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITH 100 MPH WINDS. LATEST OFFICIAL
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATED DANNY
WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGS
DANNY AS A 60MPH TROPICAL STORM TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE REGION.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH ON HOW STRONG DANNY WILL BE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREFORE...RESIDENT AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANNY.

INTERESTINGLY...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF DANNY...A VERY ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION THURSDAY THE 28TH. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ALSO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW
WHICH EFFECTS...IF ANY...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON DANNY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN SOME VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. VCTS LIKELY
AT TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 19Z-22Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO. SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 80 / 20 10 20 30
STT 88 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
6:54 AM ECT SAT, AUG 22, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

500 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015



...DANNY WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.2N 50.8W

ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 50.8 WEST. DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TO THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND DANNY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB (29.00 INCHES).

RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE ALL HURRICANE PREPARATION PLANS IN PLACE. IF NOT THESE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION AS WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE DANNY IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE SHORES OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO DETAILS CONCERNING DANNY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.



NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 11:45 PM



FORECASTER CECIL MATTHEW

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave near and south of
the Cape Verde Islands has become a little better organized since
yesterday. Additional slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days while the wave moves quickly westward
at about 25 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of
Africa in a day or two. Some development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Gustywind]

Very important infos for those who flight during the next days.

Canceled flights have begun for airplane LIAT.

http://www.liat.com/navSource.html?page_id=840

Hurricane Danny – Advisory # 2


ISSUED AT 5:30PM – AUGUST 21, 2015

ST. JOHN’S, Antigua – LIAT wishes to advise that due to the impending passage of Hurricane Danny, it has been forced to cancel the following services for Sunday, August 23, Monday, August 24 and Tuesday, August 25:



Cancellations for Sunday, August 23:

FLIGHT

ROUTING


LI 364

Barbados to Dominica to Antigua


LI 309

Antigua to St. Lucia


LI 330

St. Maarten to Dominica to Antigua


LI 326

Barbados to St. Maarten


LI 327

St. Maarten to Barbados


LI 368

Antigua to Anguilla


LI 369

Anguilla to Antigua


LI 315

Tortola to St. Maarten to St. Kitts to Antigua


LI 523

Antigua to Dominica to Barbados


LI 512

Barbados to Antigua


LI 526

Antigua to St. Kitts to Tortola to San Juan


LI 561

San Juan to Dominica


LI 524

Barbados to Dominica to Antigua


LI 550

St. Maarten to St. Thomas


LI 553

St. Thomas to St. Maarten to Antigua


LI 508

Antigua to St. Kitts to St. Maarten to Tortola


LI 509

Tortola to St. Maarten to Antigua




· LI 561 will operate from San Juan to Barbados non-stop





Cancellations for Monday, August 24:







FLIGHT

ROUTING


LI 362

Barbados to Antigua


LI 368

Antigua to Anguilla


LI 369

Anguilla to Antigua


LI 364

Barbados to Dominica to Antigua


LI 309

Antigua to St. Lucia


LI 328

Barbados to St. Kitts


LI 329

St. Kitts to Barbados


LI 310

St. Lucia to Antigua to St. Maarten to Tortola


LI 315

Tortola to St. Maarten to St. Kitts to Antigua


LI 523

Antigua to Dominica to Barbados


LI 512

Barbados to Antigua


LI 526

Antigua to St. Kitts to Tortola to San Juan


LI 560

Barbados to Dominica to San Juan


LI 561

San Juan to Dominica to Barbados


LI 524

Barbados to Dominica to Antigua


LI 550

Antigua to St. Kitts to St. Maarten to St. Thomas


LI 553

St. Thomas to St. Maarten to Antigua


LI 508

Antigua to St. Kitts to St. Maarten to Tortola


LI 509

Tortola to St. Maarten to St. Kitts to Antigua


Cancellations for Tuesday, August 25:


FLIGHT

ROUTING


LI 527

San Juan to Tortola to St. Kitts to Antigua


LI 560

Dominica to San Juan to Dominica


LI 550

St. Maarten to St. Thomas to St. Maarten


Due to the pending closure of several airports in the LIAT network there could be further disruptions to LIAT’s schedule. Any additional affected flights will be published in a subsequent advisory.



Passengers travelling on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday are asked to check the LIAT website (http://www.liat.com), and the LIAT Facebook and Twitter Pages for information on the status of their flights. Please note that the LIAT Call Centre will be closed on Monday, August 24. Regular office hours for the Call Centre are 7:00 am to 10:00 pm Monday to Saturday and from 7:00 am to 6:00 pm on Sunday and Public Holidays.

Customers affected by the disruptions who wish to rebook for a later date will be allowed to do so without change fees or fare differences for a period of two weeks from the date of their original scheduled travel. Following the two-week grace period, passengers will be required to pay applicable fare and change fees when re-booking.

LIAT also wishes to advise that passengers who decide to travel but are unable to complete their journey due to disruption caused by weather conditions, will not be provided with meals, transportation, hotel accommodation etc. Passengers with onward connections are advised to contact the respective carriers.

LIAT regrets any inconvenience caused as a result of the passage of the storm.

[Gustywind]

Here is some infos related to Danny's arrival.


Closures and Service Updates Ahead of Hurricane Danny

By Source Staff — August 21, 2015

http://stthomassource.com/content/news/ ... cane-danny

Seaborne Airlines

Seaborne Airlines announced canceled flights until Danny’s passage. They are as follows:

- Sunday: Flight 4554 San Juan to Dominica, Flight 4600 San Juan to Nevis, Flight 4562 Dominica to San Juan, and Flight 4583 Nevis to San Juan.

-Monday - St. Croix and St. Thomas Seaplane flights 115/120/125/130/137/144/165/170/175/180, Flight 4601 Nevis to San Juan, Flight 4577 Dominica to San Juan, Flight 4587 St. Kitts to San Juan, Flight 4580 San Juan to St. Kitts, Flight 4542 San Juan to St. Maarten, and Flight 4554 San Juan to Dominica.

-Tuesday - Flight 4577 Dominica to San Juan.

* Rescheduling Flights: If your flight is canceled or significantly delayed, you are entitled to a refund. Even if your flight is not canceled, you may make a one-time change to your ticket without any change fees or bookings fees if you are scheduled to travel on Aug. 22 through 26 and your ticket was issued no later than Aug. 21. You may travel Aug. 22 through 31. The original inventory is not required.

To change travel dates or for questions, contact Seaborne’s reservations personnel at 866-359-8784 or 787-946-7800 throughout the Caribbean. If calling from the Dominican Republic, call 809-200-0331.

St. Thomas East End Medical Center

In anticipation of inclement weather associated with Hurricane Danny, the St. Thomas East End Medical Center Corporation announces all patient appointments for Monday, Aug. 24 will be pending. Contingent on weather conditions, an announcement about any closures will be made via radio broadcast on WSTA, WGOD and WLDV on Monday starting at 6 a.m.

V.I. Department of Agriculture

The Agriculture Department’s St. Thomas and St. Croix abattoir will be closed Monday and Tuesday. For additional information, contact Agriculture at 778-0997 or 778-0998.

University of the Virgin Islands

The University of the Virgin Islands expects to open Monday for normal operating hours of operations. UVI status updates will be available in the Current Students, Current Employees and News sections of the UVI website http://www.uvi.edu. Status updates will also be available on social media at http://www.facebook.com/uvi.edu and twitter.com/uvi_edu as well as at campus hotlines at 692-4168 and 693-1016.

[knotimpaired]

Those who wish to see live weather for Vieques while Danny churns our way can go to our weather station at http://www.playacofi.net/weather.

Even if we lose power, out generator will immediately kick on.

K

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE MOISTURE PASSING OVER PR ATTM WITH DRYING
ALREADY OCCURRING IN EAST. CURRENT SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ISLAND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TIL LATE AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR OVER REGION
TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS AT MOST THEN A LITTLE MOISTURE
AGAIN SUNDAY.

HURRICANE DANNY BEHAVING ESSENTIALLY AS FORECAST WITH SATELLITE
INDICATING WEAKENING IS ONGOING TODAY THOUGH HURRICANE HUNTERS ON
SITE NOW. HOWEVER IT IS STILL DANGEROUS. VERY SMALL AREAL EXTENT
OF DANNY MAKES THE EXACT TRACK DIFFICULT TO ASSESS IMPACTS. DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT ON ALL SIDES OF THE HURRICANE EXCEPT EAST/
SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUGGEST WEAKENING WILL
CONTINUE AND WILL NOT GROW IN SIZE EITHER.

RAISED PROBABILITY OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
GIVEN THE MOISTURE COMING. ANOTHER LARGER AREA OF MOISTURE A
COUPLE DAYS OR SO FOLLOWING DANNY GIVES A LITTLE BETTER...THOUGH
STILL CAUTIOUS...CONFIDENCE IN DECENT RAINFALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OVR PR WI OBSCD MTNS TO DIMINISH LATE AFT.
VFR EARLY EVE AND THRU TONITE WI ISOLD SHRA. SHRA/TSRA AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTER CNTRL/W PR WI OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLW FL100 MAINLY E
7-17 KT THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
RATHER LOW SEAS. WITH DANNY APPROACHING CONDITIONS CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
NEAR USVI LATE MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 80 88 / 10 20 30 40
STT 79 89 79 88 / 20 20 40 40

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE DANNY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
6:30 PM ECT SAT, AUG 22, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

....HURRICANE DANNY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA . A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE POSTED ON SUNDAY.

AT 5 PM ECT OR 2100Z THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 662 MILES EAST SOUTH EAST OF ANGUILLA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MILES PER HOUR. A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK DANNY SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MILES PER HOUR. DANNY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS DANNY CROSSES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB OR 29.27 INCHES.

BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, HURRICANE DANNY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THIS MEANS THAT LESS WIND CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 KTS.

ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF DANNY.

REPEATING THE 5:00 PM ECT POSITION, 15.8 N, 53.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THEWEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 8:30 ECT

CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION

FORECASTER KEITHLEY MEADE

[knotimpaired]

Good morning,

They now have Danny passing us about 24 miles south of us as a Depression. Hopefully we will get some rain out of it

Any thoughts on 98L?

K

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
635 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 700 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. DANNY IS EXPECTED TO PASS
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESION OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL FOLLOW DANNY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED THIS MORNING AROUND
700 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...DANNY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER PUERTO
RICO AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS
FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH...AND NOW DANNY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF DANNY THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...A SMALL BREAK
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FOR THURSDAY...A
VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED BY COMPUTER MODELS TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANY BY A EXTENSE
AREA OF MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION. HOWEVER...A WET PATTERN IS IN
STORE FOR THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN SOME VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. VCTS LIKELY AT TJMZ AND
TJBQ BETWEEN 19Z-22Z WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. SFC
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 79 / 20 30 40 60
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 40 40 60

[cycloneye]

Good morning,

They now have Danny passing us about 24 miles south of us as a Depression. Hopefully we will get some rain out of it

Any thoughts on 98L?

K

About 98L we have to watch it as it will move west towards the Leewards.Is early to say if it curves away from Vieques/Puerto Rico.

[knotimpaired]

Luis, do you have a rational explanation on why Culebra and Vieques have been put under a TS Watch when the NHC has it going 65 miles south of Vieques as a Depression and they are also posts on FB about taking the ferries to SJ and some say a few are already there?

K

[cycloneye]

Luis, do you have a rational explanation on why Culebra and Vieques have been put under a TS Watch when the NHC has it going 65 miles south of Vieques as a Depression and they are also posts on FB about taking the ferries to SJ and some say a few are already there?

K

Any deviation of Danny to the north puts Vieques on risk and that is why the watch.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS
LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE USVI AND PR. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS
EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NHC SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DANNY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS WILL
SPREAD OVER USVI AND PR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...RAISED THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...DANNY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EXPECT PERIODS
OF INTENSE RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS STARTING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. DANNY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL CAN BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE...LEADING TO HIGHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

MID-LONG TERM...LARGE AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY
FOCUSED MAINLY ON DANNY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH 24/17Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TNCM AND TKPK
FROM 24/14Z THROUGH AT LEAST 24/23Z IN +TSRA. SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS FROM 24/18Z THROUGH AT LEAST 25/02Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTSA INCREASING TO 20 TO
25 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATER TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED DUE ROUGH SEAS OF AROUND
6-8 FEET. LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES UP TO 10 FEET CAN BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 80 88 80 / 30 90 60 30
STT 83 81 82 81 / 40 90 60 40

[caribsue]

Good morning,

They now have Danny passing us about 24 miles south of us as a Depression. Hopefully we will get some rain out of it

Any thoughts on 98L?

K

About 98L we have to watch it as it will move west towards the Leewards.Is early to say if it curves away from Vieques/Puerto Rico.

Good Afternoon Cycloneye,

Any further thoughts about 98L at this point..... getting rather close to the island chain and still travelling at a fair clip?

[Gustywind]

Best track of 98 L

AL, 98, 2015082418, , BEST, 0, 145N, 452W, 40, 1003, LO

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS
THOUGH THIS EVENING. THE RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWED A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT HAVE COMBINED WITH GOOD VORTICITY
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF USVI AND THE EASTERN PR THIS
MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE
ISLAND TERRAIN TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE
REST OF TODAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES
WITH THE REMNANTS OF DANNY. THE MAX RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN PR...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA LIKELY OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST
PR THIS AFTERNOON.

A RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM FOUR LOCATED MORE THAN 800 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...THEREFORE IMPACTS REMAIN UNCLEAR
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REACH THE LOCAL REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF ERIKA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR EXPECTED AT...TIST...
TISX AND TJSJ THRU AT LEAST 25/16Z. AS REMNANTS OF DANNY CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST...TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD FROM THE USVI TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PR TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/22Z. LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT 15 TO 25 KT...AS REMNANTS OF DANNY PASSES NEAR THE USVI AND
SOUTHERN PR. SEVERAL BKN/OVC LAYERS BLO FL200 AND SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FLYING AREA OF PR THRU
THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FEET ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE...WINDS OF 15-20
KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 89 80 / 60 30 30 60
STT 88 80 90 77 / 60 30 30 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
352 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA WILL SLIDE WEST ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD WEAKLY
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO
TRANSLATE WEST AND A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM A LOW ENTERING
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4 DEGREES NORTH WILL CROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOUND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY ONCE THE REMNANTS
OF DANNY MOVE WEST TONIGHT. THEN MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES UNTIL
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CLIPS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES PAST
THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AT LOWER LEVELS...REMNANTS OF DANNY WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT AND
AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. BUT MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS INCREASES EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...BUT LITTLE
CONVECTION WAS SEEN OVER LAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
OWNING TO THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
DANNY. THE BEST RAINFALL SEEN WAS IN NAGUABO COMING IN AT 2.39
INCHES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING 2 PM AST. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN AFTER NOON IN THE LOCAL NEAR SHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. LITTLE RAINFALL WAS SEEN
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DIRECTLY BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF
DANNY...BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN BEFORE DAWN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN FLANKS OF EL YUNQUE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INTERIOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THAN THERE HAS BEEN THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
TRACK...HOWEVER...PASSES NORTH OF ALL LAND IN THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE DOES NOT SUBSIDE VERY MUCH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF ERIKA AND
ANOTHER PULSE OF MOISTURE FROM A DISTURBANCE EAST OF ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY ERIKA WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH ENHANCED SHEAR AT
UPPER LEVELS AND DRIER MID LEVELS WITH SOME SAHARAN INFLUENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN PR
UNTIL 22Z. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE...HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA STILL
OCCURRING/EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
MAINLAND PR THRU AT LEAST 26/04Z. LOW LEVEL ESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT...BUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC
OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LUQUILLO RANGE IN PUERTO RICO AFT 26/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE IMPROVING IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA NOW AND WILL BEGIN TO DO SO IN THE WEST WHEN
REMNANTS OF DANNY EXIT THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IRREGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF ERIKA AS
IT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPECIFIC FORECASTS FOR
ERIKA CAN BE FOUND ON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER`S WEBSITE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 30 30 60 60
STT 80 90 77 89 / 30 30 60 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BY THE NHC...
THE CENTER OF ERIKA WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO...OR...OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THURSDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RIDGE PATTERN
ALOFT WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
NOTED OVER THE WATERS. PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING HOURS.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL THEN COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECT TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CORDILLERA.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BY THE NHC...WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE AS ERIKA REACHES THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE FIRST
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL REACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AS SOON AS THURSDAY MORNING...REACHING PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY
NOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH MAX AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO TCPAT5 AND WFO SJU
TROPICAL PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE WILL MOVE AWAY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY CAUSE VCSH/VCTS ACROSS TJMZ AFTER 27/17Z
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE STATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AFTER 27/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH SEAS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REACHES THE
REGIONAL WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO MARINE PRODUCTS
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 76 / 30 60 70 70
STT 92 80 92 79 / 40 60 70 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
352 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH NORTH EAST AND THE SOUTH SOUTH WEST
WITH A LOW ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
FROM ERIKA BEGINS TO REACH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA PASSING JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO BY AROUND 8 PM AST THURSDAY. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUB-TROPICS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS FORMED OVER PUERTO RICO IN AND NEAR
SAN GERMAN...OTHERWISE IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY AND A BIT HAZY FROM A
PATCH OF SAHARAN DUST THAT IS MOVING THROUGH. THE FORECAST FOR
ERIKA HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AND THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SAINT
THOMAS...SAINT JOHN AND JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN. SOME DRY AIR
CONTINUES IN THE LOCAL SOUNDING AND THIS IS ALSO PLAYING A PART IN
THE VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. ERIKA WILL LEAVE THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS WILL BE EAST SOUTHEAST OWING TO HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF SHORE FROM
VIRGINIA TO THE ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN MOST AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY MINOR EVERYWHERE AFTER ERIKA PASSES...ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO COULD
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS
FOLLOWING.

&&

.AVIATION...AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MOVES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
THIS EVENING...QUICKLY DETERIORATING WX CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
TKPK/TNCM THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/+TSRA WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA INTO THE USVI TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO SPREAD LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS. MTN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCD AND SEVERAL BKN/OVC LAYERS ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E-NE AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS BETWEEN FL025 AND FL100 WILL BE ENE 25
TO 35 KTS AFT 27/00Z TILL 27/12Z OVER TSJU AND MUCH STRONGER VCNTY
ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. WAVES
WILL SPREAD FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
OUR LOCAL WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...REACHING 10 FEET JUST
AFTER DAWN. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 TO 15 FEET WILL ARRIVE JUST
AHEAD OF ERIKA AND TRAVEL WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEAS SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX AND VIEQUES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FEET...AND BEHIND PUERTO RICO SOME AREAS WILL
NOT RISE ABOVE 4 FEET. HIGHER SEAS...HOWEVER...WILL SPREAD INTO
THE MONA CHANNEL FROM ERIKA FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 75 90 / 50 90 90 40
STT 79 84 77 88 / 50 90 90 40

&&