Caribbean - Central America Weather

[HurricaneFan]

It sounds like the latest forecast isn't calling for the Rain event in the NE Caribbean Sunday to Tuesday anymore.What caused the change in the forecast?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST FRI OCT 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD STILL HOWEVER PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SUPPORT TO AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE AN INDUCED TROUGH NOW ACROSS PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL PERSIST AND THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS EACH DAY. EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS A TROPICAL
WAVE...THIS WAVE IS SO FAR FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
LATE SATURDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...WILL ALLOW
FOR MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY
AND SATURDAY AS SUPPORTED RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS AND MODERATE VENTILATION ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TODAY AND SATURDAY. PASSING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
PATTERN SHIFT BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL WAVE AND
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY. A POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED ACROSS
THE REGION...THIS IN TURN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. UNDER THIS EXPECTED
SCENARIO...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT....WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO FAVOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME SOILS ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN
FAIRLY SATURATED AND UNSTABLE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LEAD TO MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS AT LEAST FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
VCTS/VCSH POSSIBLE FOR TJSJ AND TJPS...BUT WESTERN AND CENTRAL PR
HAS HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 30/19Z. WINDS FROM THE E-ESE
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT ABOUT 10KT UNTIL 30/23Z THEN WINDS
START TO LIGHTEN UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF -SHRA EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...LIKELY CAUSING VCSH ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THE MARINE CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR MANY OF OUR NORTHERN
FACING BEACHES AT LEAST UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE RIP CURRENT RISK STATEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 88 / 30 30 60 60
STT 79 89 79 88 / 30 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

It sounds like the latest forecast isn't calling for the Rain event in the NE Caribbean Sunday to Tuesday anymore.What caused the change in the forecast?

The latest forecast posted above this one mentions a high moisture event late Saturday thru Monday.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST SAT OCT 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT OVER WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM A CUT-OFF LOW OVER HISPANOLA BY SUNDAY
MORNING...RESULTING IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER PR AND USVI
SUNDAY. MID-UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY...LEADING TO MORE STABLE CONDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TYPICAL WEATHER CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
BRIEF MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE EAST PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST PR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL ARE FORECAST
FOR USVI TODAY.

WET AND UNSTABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS AN EASTERLY WAVE
LOCATED NEAR 60 WEST THIS MORNING WILL INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH/TUTT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR
AND USVI. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE DIURNAL
DISTRIBUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL DOMINATE AGAIN THE
LOCAL WEATHER ON MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 40 WEST THIS MORNING WILL BRING
ANOTHER BOOST IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY. THEN...A DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY VCSH
ACROSS TISX...TIST AND TJSJ. AFTER 31/17Z SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BRINGING TEMPO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND
TJMZ AND POSSIBLE TJBQ. EAST WINDS OF 15 KT BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3-6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS.
BREAKING WAVES OF 5-7 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF NORTHERN PR THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE RIP CURRENT RISK STATEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 77 / 30 60 60 30
STT 89 79 88 78 / 40 50 50 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SAT OCT 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH TODAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CUT-OFF OVER THE HISPANIOLA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
RATHER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER PR AND USVI THIS SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON
MONDAY...PROMOTING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JUST LIKE IT WAS EXPECTED A FEW SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...LOCAL ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR
IN THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PR...THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA AND THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WHERE THERE WAS MORE
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

EVERYTHING STILL POINTS TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT AS RAINY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...IT
HOWEVER LOOKS UNSTABLE. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS IS DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL HELP DEVELOP THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BA SLIGHTLY
DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER LEVELS.
THIS MAY INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS AND THEREFORE LIMITING THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. BUT STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED...JUST MAYBE MOT WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS AND THE POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING DIURNAL
ENHANCED CONVECTION.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND THEN
ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
EVEN MORE THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AND ONLY LOCALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
PREVAILING

&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING FOR LOCAL TERMINALS...HOWEVER POSSIBLE TEMPO
MVFR CONDS DUE TO SHRA/PSBL TSRA AT TJMZ...TKPK AND TNCM FM
31/19Z-31/22Z WITH VCSH/VCTS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
APPROACHING SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 01/04Z...SO SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED IN
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MAY CAUSE AT LEAST VCSH/VCTS
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE DECREASING SLIGHTLY BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SEAS WILL BE UP TO 5 OR 6 FEET THE REST OF TODAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 88 / 60 60 30 30
STT 79 88 78 88 / 60 60 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER PR AND USVI TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
FEW SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WERE ISSUED DUE TO THESE STORMS.
MEANWHILE OVER LAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
AND VIEQUES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION RANGED FROM ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH.

LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...AN ACTIVE
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEAR THE
LOCAL REGION.

FOR TUESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE..RELATIVELY NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TODAY AS SFC
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW DOMINATE THE LOCAL WX CONDS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 01/17Z-21Z. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PR.
EAST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT EXPECTED BLO FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. REFER TO MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT OR SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS FOR LATEST CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 60 30 30 70
STT 88 78 90 79 / 60 50 50 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST SUN NOV 1 2015

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOSTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES...SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WERE ISSUED DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNINGS AND GUSTY WINDS. BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THIS
ACTIVITY MOVED TO THE MONA PASSAGE...LEAVING THE LOCAL ISLANDS
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MONDAY HOURS. AS THIS HAPPENS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...INCREASING AGAIN THE
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT IST/ISX/JSJ. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFT
02/17Z OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH 02/22Z AT JMZ/JBQ.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATION AFT 02/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM AST SUN NOV 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER PR AND USVI TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT MID MORNING A BREAK OF CLOUDS HELPED SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED FROM EL YUNQUE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUCKLY
DISSIPATED. DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE EAST BEGAN TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE LAND AREAS COULD BE THE DENSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS.

AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE GAIN DEVELOP AND
AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...MAINLY THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...THE LOCAL REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION... FM01/18Z-01/22Z...PRDS OF MVFR/PSBL IFR CONDS IN
SHRA/TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY TJSJ AND TIST BTWN
01/18Z- 21Z. MTN OBSCR LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PR. EAST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT EXPECTED BLO FL200. NO
OTHER CHG TO PREVIOUS AVN DISCUSSION.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODYA AND TONIGHT. REFER TO MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT OR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR LATEST
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 88 / 30 30 70 70
STT 78 90 79 88 / 50 50 70 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST MON NOV 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THESE PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...WILL COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION...MAINTAINING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING
SHOWERS THE REST OF THE MORNING AT IST/ISX/JSJ. SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFT 02/17Z OVER AND WEST OF THE
CORDILLERA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS THROUGH 02/22Z AT JMZ/JBQ. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATION AFT 02/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 90 78 / 20 70 70 30
STT 89 78 88 78 / 50 70 70 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST TUE NOV 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THE WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS
THE LOCAL REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO AS LOW AS 1.3 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
RECOVER SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
BRING WITH IT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS THRU 03/12Z IN SHRA/TSRA. SHRA/TSRA WILL
SPREAD OVER PR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ. VCTS/VCSH EXPECTED AT TJPS AND TJSJ. EASTERLY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS BELOW FL250.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 77 / 70 30 30 30
STT 88 79 88 78 / 70 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST TUE NOV 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHING ON THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE RETREAT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS
BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN LOW PRESSURE
FORMS TO THE NORTH AND MOVES TOWARD THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
RETREAT TO OVER FLORIDA. A LOW WILL FORM JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RE-BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE
AREA. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE BEHIND IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NORTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY FUELED IN PART BY THIS MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR PART OF WESTERN
PUERTO RICO AND IN THE WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE WATER...ALSO CONTINUE TO FORM. MOISTURE
PEAKED TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO DROP FROM AROUND 2.1 INCHES TO 1.2
INCHES LATER TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO FUEL SHOWERS IN THE LOCAL WATERS AND ON THE EASTERN
LEEWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS. MOISTURE THEN RECOVERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND RISES ABRUPTLY
TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS TODAY BY SUNDAY AS THE WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE
BRING GOOD MOISTURE TO THE AREA. HENCE THIS MEANS TYPICAL PASSING
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS AND WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. ALTHOUGH VERY LOCALIZED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK...IT IS
MUCH MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN PR WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MTN
TOP OBSCD AND MVFR CONDS...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJBQ THRU 22Z. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE E-ESE AT 10-20 KNOTS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS UNTIL
SATURDAY. A NEW SWELL TRAIN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS STILL
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WIND WAVES ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...IF
MET...WILL BE BORDERLINE...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE PASSAGES. RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGH THEN AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 88 / 60 60 60 60
STT 79 88 78 88 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST WED NOV 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TUTT LOW EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. THIS FEATURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENT SIDE WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY.
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...
AS A SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE USVI AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE
MINIMAL.

WITH RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY THE CONVERGENT
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TUTT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS
TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTION
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. AS THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...THE FREQUENCY OF LATE EVENING/EARLY
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS. A WETTER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS NORTH OF THE AREA AND TROFINESS PERSISTS AT
UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FCST PERIOD. PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TKPK...
TNCM...TIST AND TISX IN THE MORNING. AFT 04/15Z...MOUNTAIN OBSC
LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ/TJBQ BTWN 04/17Z-23Z IN SHRA/TSRA...AND VCSH
ARE POSSIBLE AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST...VCTS POSSIBLE FOR TJSJ AFTER
04/20Z. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 04/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET. NORTHERLY SWELL ACTION STILL EXPECTED BY END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND NORTHERLY
SWELL ACTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 87 78 / 40 20 50 30
STT 87 77 87 76 / 40 40 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED NOV 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESURE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...WILL WEAKEN BUT AID IN FORMING ANOTHER LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH OF CULEBRA. A WEAK JET OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO FORM OVER PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY IN A
CONFUSED PATTERN AND MOVE NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW. A TROUGH WILL
FORM JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY AND FORM ANOTHER LOW
MONDAY NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL RECEDE WEST AT FIRST BUT WILL RETURN TO THE EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK LOW
OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TO NORTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INVADE THE MID
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN RELATIVELY GOOD THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN
THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS IT CROSSES OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RICH MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL POSSIBLY
SPAWN A LOW OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE TO NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
SUNDAY. FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS EAST OF THAT INCLUDING
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND MOVED THROUGH MOST OF WESTERN
PUERTO RICO ALSO BRUSHING THE NORTH AND SOUTH COASTS. THE GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADUALY INCREASING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND THEN SURGING TO ALMOST 2.3 INCHES ON SATURDAY. THIS REPRESENTS
A SLIGHT ACCELERATION FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INCREASING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING INCREASING WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST WEATHER HAS BEEN TRENDING EARLIER
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW HAS NOT BEEN STEADY BETWEEN RUNS SO
EXPECT FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT HORIZON
BECOMES CLOSER.

MOISTURE LEVELS RETURN TO NEARLY NORMAL ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED LEVELS FROM THE LAST PART OF THIS WEEK. WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS...WOULD EXPECT BEST SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO AND ON THE SOUTH COAST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSC/PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IMPACTING MAINLY...TJMZ/TJBQ THRU 23Z
DUE TO SHRA/TSRA. PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THRU
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER
23Z ACROSS THE FLYING AREA W/EXCEPTIONS OF VCSH PASSING FROM TIME
TO TIME ACROSS THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH LIGHTER LAND BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 05/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY...BUT ON FRIDAY SEAS BEGIN TO
BUILD FROM NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL AND THE INCREASE OF WINDS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 7 TO 8 FEET AT THE
OUTER BUOY 41043 DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 78 88 / 30 70 70 50
STT 77 87 76 87 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST THU NOV 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE USVI AND THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BRISK EASTERLIES AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN FREQUENT FAST MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WETTER/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...AS AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SATURDAY AS THE MOST ACTIVE DAY. DUE TO VARIATIONS BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS...EXPECT FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN THE FORECAST. STAY
TUNED.

MOISTURE LEVELS RETURN TO NEARLY NORMAL VALUES ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
RIDGE ALOFT AND EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXPECT BEST SHOWERS IN WEST
AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO LATE NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES
DURING THE FCST PERIOD. PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
TJSJ...TKPK... TNCM...TIST AND TISX IN THE MORNING MAY CAUSE VERY
BRIEF MVFR CONDS. AFT 05/15Z...MOUNTAIN OBSC LIKELY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ BTWN 05/17Z-23Z IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH TEMPO TSRA
LIKELY AT TJMZ. E-ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 05/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORT-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL
COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST TO INCREASE THE SEAS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 5-7 FT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 79 / 50 50 40 60
STT 87 76 87 77 / 50 50 50 60

[HurricaneFan]

It looks like the Wave that was forecasted to hit the Islands late in the weekend is dying out?(around 40W)Is that so?
So have the forecast shift the Rain Event to be earlier because it has drop the Wave further out(around 40W),but have picked up on the on the one just east of the Islands?

[cycloneye]

It looks like the Wave that was forecasted to hit the Islands late in the weekend is dying out?(around 40W)Is that so?
So have the forecast shift the Rain Event to be earlier because it has drop the Wave further out(around 40W),but have picked up on the on the one just east of the Islands?

It looks that way.Models bring the rain at that timeframe of weekend.

[HurricaneFan]

Any idea how much Rain is expected for the Leeward Islands in that time frame?What do the Models' Rain forecast look like for the Leeward Islands?More than the Last two Rain Events?
Thanks in advance.

[cycloneye]

Any idea how much Rain is expected for the Leeward Islands in that time frame?What do the Models' Rain forecast look like for the Leeward Islands?More than the Last two Rain Events?
Thanks in advance.

Looks like the same as the past events in terms of rainfall.

[Gustywind]

Martinica is Under an yellow alert since yesterday afternoon till the end of the day (risk of strong showers and tstorms).
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... inique.pdf

Very grey skies in Guadeloupe, with numerous and more frequent strong showers. Looks like weather continues to deteriorate today as another round of strong showers is pointing in my area. i won't be surprised if Guadeloupe will be on yellow alert during the day if conditions continue to deteriorate quickly than predicted.
We will see but be on your guard my friends season stretches till the end of November, Watch out islanders.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST THU NOV 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE ISLANDS WHILE WEAKENING. ASSOCIATED INDUCED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TROUGH AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS THRU THE WEEKEND. MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADES
WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON RAINFALL ESTIMATES WERE
AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PR AND
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN PR. A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL WAS NOT
SIGNIFICANT TO CAUSE FLOOD PROBLEMS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EMBEDDED ON THE TRADE
WINDS AND AFFECT THE USVI AND EAST/SOUTHEAST PR. THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR.

A MORE RAINY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS
FEATURE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SATURDAY AS THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY...WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES ACROSS ALL ISLANDS.

AS TROUGH EXITS THE LOCAL AREA...IT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PULLING MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS AS A MORE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL KEEP PWAT
HIGH ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AND DEPENDING ON THE MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS THRU AT
LEAST TUESDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS RETURN TO NEARLY NORMAL VALUES ON
WEDNESDAY UNDER RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AND EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS.
EXPECT BEST SHOWERS IN WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO LATE NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...DRYING EXPECTED IN TNCM AND TKPK TIL 06/06Z THEN SCT
SHRA WILL RETURN. IN WEST AND CENTRAL PR...SCT SHRA/TSRA TO PERSIST
THRU 05/23Z WITH AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR/ISOLD IFR CONDS
TIL 06/02Z. SHRA CROSSING THROUGH USVI AFT 05/18Z AND AFT 05/20Z IN
ERN PR THRU 06/12Z WITH CONTD MTN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS. WINDS
UP THRU FL250 ENE 15 KT INCRG TO 25 KT BY 06/18Z BTWN FL045 TO
FL080.


&&

.MARINE....WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND
WAVES FROM THE EAST TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 79 87 / 50 40 60 60
STT 76 87 77 87 / 50 50 60 60

[cycloneye]

7 PM EST TWO:

A large area of cloudiness and showers near the Leeward Islands
extending eastward for several hundred miles is associated with the
interaction of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave. Although
upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for development over
the next couple of days, heavy rain is possible in the Leeward
Islands while the system moves through the area. By late in the
weekend, when the system is forecast to be near or north of Puerto
Rico, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable, and some development of the disturbance is possible early
next week while it moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent