Caribbean - Central America Weather

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST MON NOV 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO
RICO WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY
MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
BUILD DUE WEST OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF JAMAICA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
WILL BUILD NORTHWEST TO A POSITION NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
SUNDAY. A BAND OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY. A POCKET OF GOOD MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE USVI AND ERN
PR ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHINESS EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL WEAKEN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HOLD EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILD IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BY MID
WEEK REINFORCING THIS FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW.
ALTHOUGH MID LEVELS WILL DRY SUBSTANTIALLY BEGINNING TONIGHT UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER TROUGH AT 850 MB WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THAT IT IS EXPECTED
THAT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE UNTIL RATHER ABRUPT DRYING OCCURS AT
02/12Z. THE CURRENT GFS INDICATES THAT SOME CONVECTION IS STILL
LIKELY IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

CURRENT GFS INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOISTURE WILL PEAK TODAY...SAG
SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY...AND RE-SURGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH
THE TREND AT UPPER LEVELS TOWARD SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRESSURE FROM
MID WEEK ON AND THE WEAK DYNAMICS DEPICTED...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE
MORE THAN NOMINAL/NORMAL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ANYTIME THIS WEEK.
AND THE TREND OVER THE WEEKEND IS TOWARD EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
AND WILL RESULT IN CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. UNDER ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT JMZ AND TJBQ...IN
SHRA/TSRA THRU 30/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
VCSH. WINDS DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CONDS
IMPROVING AFT 30/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELL IS NEARLY GONE WITH MAYBE 1 FOOT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IN THE MODEL OUTPUT. WINDS...HOWEVER HAVE
INCREASED IN SOME LOCAL AREAS TO 16 TO 20 KNOTS...AT LEAST DURING
THE DAY...AND THIS IS KEEPING ROUGHER SEAS AND CONDITIONS
WARRANTING AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IN A NUMBER OF ZONES WHERE
EAST WINDS CAN INCREASE SEAS. WINDS AT 850 MB WILL INCREASE TO UP
TO 23 KNOTS...BUT SURFACE WINDS ONLY RESPOND BY A FEW KNOTS. FLOW
REMAINS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS ACCORDING TO
CURRENT MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 76 91 / 50 40 40 40
STT 76 87 78 86 / 50 30 40 40

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PATCH OF DRIER AIR MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AGAIN
LATER TODAY...THEN REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
DRYING QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL STAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A PATCH OF DRIER AIR
MOVED IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE USVI AND THE WATERS OBSERVE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MORE OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF PR THEN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...EASTERN PR AND THE USVI DURING
THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
AND THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS. FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AT THE LEEWARD
TERMINALS AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT USVI TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA AND WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND
AROUND JMZ/JBQ 01/16-22Z. ESE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE WATERS
NEAR VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN USVI. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL HIGHER WAVES REACH THE LOCAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 77 / 20 50 50 30
STT 86 77 86 78 / 30 50 50 40

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST TUE DEC 1 2015

SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIR MASS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AN
INCREASE ON MOISTURE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED AGAIN
LATER TODAY...THEN REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
DRYING QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL STAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EARLY THURSDAY.

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF PATCHY WEATHER MOVE FROM THE WEST AND
AFFECTED THE USVI AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGHT
THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MADE IT INLAND AND
AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


ON WEDNESDAY...PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE USVI AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH MID MORNING AND LATER ON THE
COMBINATION OF SEA BREEZE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL GENERATE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS WEATHER SCENARIO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

ON FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE
IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AT TIST...VCSH ELSEWHERE. ALSO...SHWRS
AND TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA AND WILL
RESULT IN PDS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND
JMZ/JBQ 01/19-22Z. ESE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH SOME SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THEREFOR FOR MOST OF THESE WATERS MARINERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 3 TO 5
FEET ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THEY BECOME SLITHLY MORE ESE. NO SWELL
EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 90 / 50 50 30 30
STT 77 86 78 86 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
607 AM AST WED DEC 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE FOR TODAY
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER
LOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER OUR AREA...KEEPING THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURPASSING 2 INCHES. THE
UPPER LOW IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...PROVIDING GOOD
VENTILATION ALOFT. GIVEN THE RECENT WEATHER UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA MUCH LIKE IT WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY. THE MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES THEN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR. THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE USVI
AND OVER EASTERN PR.

THURSDAY LOOKS A BIT LESS RAINY AS DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN
BUT ANOTHER PATCH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE UPPER LOW...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
PRESENT...IT WILL BE A BIT FURTHER EAST AND A BIT WEAKER...SO THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER AND THEREFORE THE VENTILATION ALOFT MAY
NOT SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTION FOR AS LONG AS IT WAS
RECENTLY...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
QUITE POSSIBLE.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR SEEMS TO BE PUSHED BACK UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING SOME MOMENTS OF SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION...AS SFC TROF AFFECTS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
TODAY...EXPECT SHRA/ISLD TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST THRU 16Z THEY COULD AFFECT THE USVI/EASTERN PR
TERMINALS RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS W/MTN OBSCURATIONS OVER
EL YUNQUE. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MTN RANGES OF PR...WITH MVFR CONDS AND MTN TOP OBSCD ONCE AGAIN
OVER MAINLAND PR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL FM THE E-SE AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...THEREFORE FOR MOST OF THESE WATERS
MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF
3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE E-SE. SEAS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 89 77 / 50 30 20 20
STT 86 77 87 77 / 50 40 20 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST THU DEC 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAKENING CUT-OFF LOW OVER HAITI
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...PULLING A TROUGH ACROSS
US SATURDAY. A RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AND LAST UNTIL TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHEN THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC MONDAY THE WEAK TROUGH WILL DEEPEN...FORM A STRONG LOW
THAT MOVES NORTH...AND CAUSE LOCAL LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A SHEAR LINE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH NARROW
RIBBONS OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. THESE
WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO LEAVING UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS GREW
AROUND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BUT
REMAINED WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS WAS UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 2
INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH WEAK DYNAMICS BEING CONTRIBUTED BY
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE AFTERNOONS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS IN PASSING SHOWERS. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN MID LEVELS BECOME VERY
DRY...BUT MOISTURE RETURNS BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT CONVECTION NEXT WEEK AS WELL. LATE NEXT WEEK THE GFS SHOWS A
WEAK SHEAR LINE APPROACHING THE AREA AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
THIS TROUGH IS ACTUALLY INDUCED BY THE LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED
STRONGLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND MOVED
NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 03/18-21Z MTN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCURED WITH TSRA/SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. THIS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS AT 10-20 KTS FM THE E-SE BLO
FL100...E-NE WINDS BETWEEN FL100-200. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER
14Z.

&&

.MARINE...WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE EXPOSED WATERS
SEAS WILL BE ROUGH. BY FRIDAY SEAS OF 7 FEET WILL BEGIN TO BE
ENCOUNTERED IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS.
THESE WILL EXTEND INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW SEAS DIMINISHING BELOW 7 FEET IN OUR LOCAL WATERS AFTER
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 77 / 30 50 30 40
STT 88 77 87 77 / 20 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
359 PM AST THU DEC 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER HISPANIOLA
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...PULLING A TROUGH ACROSS
US BY SATURDAY. A RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A SET OF MID LEVELS HIGH PRESSURES WILL
ESTABLISH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC RETREAT TO THE EAST... ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS
AND THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND DOWNWIND FROM EL YUNQUE AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA...TO INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. SOME OF THEM MAY MOVE INLAND TO IMPACT MAINLY THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS FROM TIME TO TIME. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILD TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE
WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR AND PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER WATERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE WEEKEND...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TO RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WINDWARD SECTIONS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALSO...THE
WESTERN SECTIONS AND THE MOUNTAIN RANGE CAN EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN MID LEVELS BECOME VERY DRY...BUT MOISTURE RETURNS
BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THEN...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTION NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 03/18-21Z MTN TOP OBSCD
WITH TSRA/SHRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PR. THIS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ AND
JBQ. WINDS AT 10-20 KTS FM THE E-SE BLO FL100...E-NE WINDS BETWEEN
FL100-200. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS. BY FRIDAY...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS
DUE TO SEAS UP TO 7 FEET . ELSEWHERE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS
BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FEET AND EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 77 87 / 50 30 40 50
STT 77 87 77 87 / 40 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST FRI DEC 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER WEST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. A MID LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME OF
THEM AFFECTING THE USVI AND THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND WINDS
WERE FROM THE EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO
TIME...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES AND LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS UNDER RIDGE PATTERN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HOLD MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
BUT WITHOUT MAJOR FORCING...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THRU AT LEAST 12Z PASSING -SHRA WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS AND COULD REACH
PARTS OF THE USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MTN
TOP OBSCD DUE TO -SHRA AND LOW CLD LYRS OVR ERN PR. ALSO...ISLD/SCT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PR MAINLY FM 18-
21Z...IMPACTING MAINLY JMZ. LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 10-22 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY AND ROUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SEAS 6 TO 7 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 8 FEET EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 76 / 30 30 10 20
STT 87 76 87 76 / 20 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST FRI DEC 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE WEAK CUT-OFF LOW JUST WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA WILL DISSIPATE RIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH CROSSES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER
SOUTH AMERICA...WEAK TROUGHS PASS THROUGH THE AREA IN MORE OR
LESS STRAIGHT LINE FLOW FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A MODEST 85-KNOT JET IS EXPECTED TO DROP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND OVER THE
CARIBBEAN IS DISPLACED BY A LOW THAT DEVELOPS 1000 MILES NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO NEXT FRIDAY...THEN MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST AND PULLS A
TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH OVER THE MID WEST UNITED STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. A TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS PINCHES OFF A LOW
ON MONDAY THAT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTH NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS. THE
SAME TROUGH PINCHES OFF ANOTHER LOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT THAT
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MOVES EAST BRINGING
IN COOLER AIR AND SHALLOW SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS TO THE EAST
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVED ONSHORE IN PUERTO
RICO LEAVING VERY MINOR AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND. A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEFORE
DAWN THIS MORNING LEAVING ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS. UP TO ONE HALF
INCH WAS ESTIMATED OVER THE HILLS OF HUMACAO THIS MORNING. EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN A BAND OF DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE RECOVERS TO
THE BEST VALUES OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS BY MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD
PROVOKE BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING IN THE EAST AND IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. MOISTURE DECLINES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASES AGAIN THROUGH THE FOLLOWING SATURDAY. THE GFS THEN
SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW TO FORM NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL PULL COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A COOLER
AIR MASS BELOW WITH SHALLOW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST
OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN PR MAINLY FM 19-22Z...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. THEREFORE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 15-20
KTS THROUGH AT LEAST 06/00Z...DECREASING BETWEEN 10-15 KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE INCREASED TRADE WINDS. THE
OUTER ATLANTIC AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SHOULD SEE SEAS CLOSE TO 7
FEET...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER UNPROTECTED WATERS WILL SEE SEAS UP
TO 6 FEET. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 30 10 20 20
STT 76 87 76 86 / 30 20 20 20

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST SAT DEC 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EXTENDS FROM LA HISPANIOLA INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT LOWER
LEVELS...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AS TRADE WIND SHOWERS BRUSHED
THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...RAINFALL WAS NOT
SIGNIFICANT OVER LAND AREAS. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AS LOW MEANDERS ALOFT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE THRU THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PROMOTE STRONG CAP INVERSION...AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND
LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS. MAINLY SHOWERS
FORMING FROM STREAMERS OFF THE ISLANDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...IF ANY...DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTN RANGES AND WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS FCST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURG THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH QUICK PASSING TRADE WIND SHRA/-SHRA TIL AT
LEAST 05/12Z. SFC WNDS LGT/VRB TIL 05/14Z...BECMG ESE AT 10 T0
15KTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AFT 05/14. NO OTHER SIG WX IMPACTS
ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4-7 FEET...WITH LOWEST
SEAS ACROSS WESTERN PR. THIS IS DUE TO WIND GENERATED WAVES AS
FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS. EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 75 / 30 20 10 40
STT 87 76 86 77 / 20 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SAT DEC 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING
TILL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST WED-THU. FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THEM
AFFECTING THE USVI AND THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO
NOTED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN AFTERNOON.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND FRESH TRADE WINDS.
THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS EACH DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND LATE
NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THOSE DAYS PWAT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BUT WITH UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.
AS A RESULT STILL EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER PATTERN BUT WITH
BETTER AREAL COVERAGE MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURG THE NEXT 24
HRS...WITH QUICK PASSING SHRA/-SHRA TILL AT LEAST 05/22Z. EASTERLY
SFC WNDS AT 10 T0 15 KTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS THROUGH 05/22. NO
OTHER SIG WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...WIND WAVES EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4-7 FEET...WITH
THE LOWEST SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PR. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 75 / 30 20 10 50
STT 87 76 86 77 / 20 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST SUN DEC 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT OVER THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
UNTIL A TROF ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE NW ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE WATERS WITH A FEW
OF THEM MOVING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF PR. RAINFALL RANGED FROM TRACES TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OVER LAND AREAS.

NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON RAINFALL ACTIVITY. TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR HOLDS THRU THE WEEK...EXPECT
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT THOSE DAYS PWAT WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LAYER MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA IN ASSOCIATION TO AN UPPER
TROUGH.


&&

..AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS FCST ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
DURG THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH BRIEF SHRA/-SHRA CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH
ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT DIFFERENT TIMES. SFC WNDS LGT/VRB TIL 06/14Z
FOR THE TERMINALS IN PR...EAST WINDS AT 10-15KT FOR USVI...TKPK
AND TNCM. WINDS INCREASING AFTER 06/14Z TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY AS FRESH TRADES CONTINUE TO CREATE CHOPPY SEAS.
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND PASSAGES. THEN...SMALL
CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WINDS
CONTINUE BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP IN THE 40-50% AND GUSTY WINDS. SEE
LATEST FIRE DANGER STATEMENT(RFD) FOR MORE INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 75 / 20 50 50 10
STT 86 76 86 76 / 20 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SUN DEC 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH SHALLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.THESE SHOWERS MAINLY
AFFECTED THE NORTHERN USVI AND THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS HAD BEEN REPORTED. SATELLITE SHOWS MORE SHALLOW
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA THEREFORE MORE
SHALLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

PRECITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THEREFORE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED
ON RAINFALL ACTIVITY. TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND AS DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR HOLDS THRU THE WEEK...EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LAYER MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA IN ASSOCIATION TO AN UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 07/00Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT TIST...TISX...TJSJ AD TJBQ FROM TIME
TO TIME. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY AS FRESH TRADES CONTINUE TO CREATE CHOPPY SEAS.
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND PASSAGES. THEN...SMALL
CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WINDS
CONTINUE BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 88 / 50 50 10 20
STT 76 86 76 85 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON DEC 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO SAG SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. TROUGH WILL HOWEVER GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...AS A
MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WILL SHIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOOSENING OF THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS A DECREASE IN THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREAS TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PORTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WAS AIDING IN ENHANCING SOME OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY QUICKLY
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS ISLANDS...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WHERE LOCAL FORCING AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER. HOWEVER...NO
WIDESPREAD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND DECREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LOOSEN...AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT AND REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG WITH GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING. THIS OVERALL SCENARIO WILL AID
IN SUPPRESSING AND LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION DURING
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...LESS FREQUENT EARLY MORNING PASSING
SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION....SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS PART OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL AT
LEAST 07/15Z. CEILING AT AROUND FL060-080 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 07/14Z. EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 15 KTS AFTER 07/13Z. SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS PR AND THE USVI...IMPROVING AFTER 07/20Z.
DEVELOPING SHRA COULD AFFECT TJMZ...AND TJBQ AFTER 07/18Z WHICH
COULD CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. RECENT BUOY DATA AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN
SEAS WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS OF UP TO 7 FEET IN SOME AREAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ELSEWHERE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND
MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONS WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 40 10 20 10
STT 85 75 85 75 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST MON DEC 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. A DECREASE ON THE TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED ON THE UPCOMING
DAYS A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOSENS...AS WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SFC HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED EARLY ON ACROSS
EASTERN PR WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PR. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR WERE AROUND ONE INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSEN...AND THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DOMINATE AND
PROMOTE MID LEVEL DRYING. THIS WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING AND
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION DURING REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR/WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR DUE TO
LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA...RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ...IMPROVING AFTER 07/21Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDS PREVAIL...ALBEIT SOME -SHRA/VCSH. EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS...BCMNG LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFT
07/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND PASSAGES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 7 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 88 / 10 20 10 10
STT 75 85 75 84 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARDS WHILE FILLING...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THEN REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
FARTHER NORTHEAST AS A WEAKLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL LOOSENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THUS SUPPORT A DECREASE IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION....THE 08/00Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE
RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT AND THE GPS
MET DATA PLOTS...ALL SUGGEST DECREASING LAYERED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...AS A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS...ALONG WITH RECENT
OBSERVATIONS ALL SUGGEST DECREASING LOW LEVEL ESE TRADE WINDS
WHICH WERE NOW RANGING 15-20 KNOTS BELOW 15 KFT...WITH ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 700 MILLIBARS. CONSEQUENTLY...ONLY EXPECT
A FEW QUICK PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS
DURING THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND AND PRODUCE ONLY THE NUISANCE SHOWERS OF
SHORT DURATION.

THE REST OF THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN RECENT DAYS. AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITYSHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONSOF
PUERTO RICO AS PREVAILING WIND FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ISLANDS INCLUDING THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER IN
ACROSS THE REGION.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A GRADUAL BUT STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME DOMINATE AND PROMOTE MID
LEVEL DRYING AND STRENGTHEN OF THE TRADE WIND INVERSION. THIS
WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING AND LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
PASSING SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION.

&&

.AVIATION....BRIEF SHRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING W-NW ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA...RESULTING MAINLY IN OCCASIONAL VCSH ACROSS
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 08/14Z. HOWEVER...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE WINDS REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE TERMINALS
IN PUERTO RICO AND EASTERLY AT 5-10 KT ACROSS THE USVI AND TKPK AND
TNCM TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 08/14Z TO 10- 15KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD HOWEVER EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
DUE TO SLIGHT WIND CHOP. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR
FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 75 / 20 10 20 30
STT 84 75 85 74 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST TUE DEC 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARDS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FARTHER
NORTHEAST AS AS AN INDUCE TROUGH SET OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS FORMED DOWNWIND FROM THE ISLANDS OF ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN...ST CROIX...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THEM MOVED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF MAINLAND PR...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
USVI AND EASTERN PR.

RELATIVE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILED
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...BRIEF TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE
USVI...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION. WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF TSRA STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PR
THRU 022Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM ESE AT 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE
SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KTS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 75 / 20 10 20 30
STT 84 75 85 74 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST WED DEC 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A MID TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND THEN AMPLIFYING OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
INDICATED ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS BUT NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO
FAR THIS MORNING. A RELATIVE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAME
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
CUBA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THRU PRD.
ISOLD PASSING SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN
LEEWARDS. MTN TOP PARTIALLY OBSCURED IN PASSING SHRA OVR ERN PR TIL
09/14Z. SFC WND LGT/VRB TIL 09/14Z BCMG FM E-SE 10-15 KTS DURG REST
OF PRD. L/LVL WNDS BLO F100 FM SE 5-15 KTS. FEW SHRA/PSBL ISOLD TSRA
OVR CTRL AND NW PR FM 09/18Z-09/22Z W/BRIEF MVFR VCTY TJBQ AND TJMZ.
NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE DUE TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE
SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 88 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 84 75 85 75 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED DEC 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO THE RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGES ARE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
THIS LIMITED SHOWER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE USVI WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LATEST MODELS RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY THAT WAS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL NOT REACH OUR
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE SHEAR LINE WILL GENERATE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BRIEF TSRA STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PR
THRU 022Z. LIGHT PASSING SHRA WILL REACH THE FLYING AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO OVERNIGHT HRS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM SE AT 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KTS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 75 87 / 30 30 20 30
STT 75 85 75 84 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
453 AM AST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ERODE RAPIDLY BY SATURDAY AS A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN AMPLIFY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
INDICATED ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS BUT NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO
FAR THIS MORNING. A RELATIVE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. ALMOST THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
AT LEAST FRIDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO ERODE RAPIDLY SATURDAY AS A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE SHEAR LINE
WILL GENERATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FEW L/LVL CU/SC CLD LYRS FL022...FL040 WITH -SHRA/SHRA EN
ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. SFC WND LGT/VRB TIL 10/14Z BCMG FM
ESE 5-15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS FM
10/14Z-10/22Z. L/LVL WNDS BLO FL100 FM E-SE 10-15 KTS...THEN BACKING
AND DECR W/HT ABV UP TO FL300. NO SIG OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 88 75 / 30 20 30 20
STT 85 76 85 76 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING
THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THEN...UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ERODING THE CAP INVERSION AND ENHANCING THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. DOPPLER
RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST PR LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. IF ANY
SHOWER DEVELOP...WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. SOME INTERRUPTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS LIGHT TRADE
WIND SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID-UPPER TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE EAST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
HIGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY ENHANCING THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME VCSH FROM TIME TO TIME. ESE 5-15 KTS EXCEPT FOR
SEA BREEZE VARIATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS THRU 10/22Z. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...TYPICAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 87 / 20 30 20 20
STT 76 85 76 85 / 30 30 20 30