Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...THEN ERODE BY SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEST AS A POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE AND BECOME
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...ALONG WITH
A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE LOCAL WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME
TO TIME. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER LAND WERE MINIMAL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OBSERVED OR REPORTED. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE REST OF THE DAY WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS ACTIVITY LIMITED TO MAINLY PARTS OF
THE OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT
OVERALL FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
BY SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND AN INDUCED TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS UNFOLDING PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLYAID
IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PREFRONTAL TROUGH/SHEAR LINE. THIS FEATURE
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD SHOULD APPROACH THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH THE ERODING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHRA MAY CAUSE
BRIEF VICINITY SHRA POSSIBLE AROUND TIST AND TJSJ UNTIL ABOUT
22/15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5-10KTS...
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 22/13Z
AND INCREASING TO ABO0UT 10-15KT. A BRIEF SHRA TEMPO IS POSSIBLE AFTER
22/18 ACROSS TJBQ.

MARINE...A NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES THIS MORNING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SEAS AT THE NEAR SHORE BUOYS RANGED BETWEEN 7-10 FEET AT
AROUND 13 SECONDS. BREAKING WAVES OF 10-14 FEET WILL THEREFORE
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY AND THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL LATER TODAY. SEAS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERLY SWELL
ACTION... ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 88 74 / 30 20 20 10
STT 83 73 83 75 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST SAT JAN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL AID IN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT...AS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE COMBINATION
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL CREATE A MODERATE SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION
AIDED IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES
PROVIDED SUFFICIENT LIFT AND FORCING OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TO
PRODUCE PERIODS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE AND NW PR. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY BUT OVERALL MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL IN THAT AREA.

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT IS EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ERODES AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE...WILL ALLOW MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND VENTILATION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THAT
TIME. HOWEVER DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AT LEAST UNTIL ANOTHER MODEL RUN
BEFORE INCLUDING IT IN THE PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER...BRIEF
-SHRA/SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL AROUND 23/14Z...
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS SOME OF PR TERMINALS. AFTER 23/18Z SHRA
TEMPOS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
E-SE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 23/13Z...INCREASING THEREAFTER AT
AROUND 10- 15KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS

&&

.MARINE...RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND DATA TREND FROM THE SURROUNDING
BUOYS AS WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST SUBSIDING SEAS AND
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY SWELL ACTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
OFFSHORE BUOY 41043 NE OF PR SUGGEST SEAS NOW NEAR 6 FEET AND
BUOY 41053 WAS DOWN TO AROUND 4 FEET OR SO. THEREFORE SCA ARE NO
LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE
HOWEVER URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY.

FOR LOCAL BEACHGOERS AND TOURISTS...THERE IS STILL A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF PR...CULEBRA...AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 74 89 75 / 20 10 50 20
STT 83 75 83 75 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST SAT JAN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL AID IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT...AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AND A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WILL CREATE A MODERATE SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL
REGION. SHOWERS MOVED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NORTHWARD
AFFECTING THE SOUTH SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. BY 2 PM AST...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS LIGHT. CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DURING THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A POLAR
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN WILL AID IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
AT LEAST TUESDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER THE REGION MONDAY...LATER
DISSIPATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT
JSJ/JPS/JMZ AND JBQ...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AS A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION EXPECTED ACROSS
PR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 8 FEET
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS ANOTHER PULSE OF NORTHERLY SWELLS
INVADES THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 89 75 87 / 10 50 20 30
STT 75 83 75 84 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
629 AM AST SUN JAN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS....MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH WILL
ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN WILL AID IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT...AS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL HELP CREATE A MODERATE SOUTHEAST TRADE
WIND FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND GOOD
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN
TRANSPORTING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. THE CONTINUED EROSION OF THE RIDGE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL WEAKEN THE CAP INVERSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND ALLOW A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THIS MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
AT LEAST UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN CONDITIONS ARE TO THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA WE RETURN TO A
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFT
24/12Z IN TNCM AND TKPK. VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES IN PR BUT
HIR MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONT THRU 25/02Z. SE SFC WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND RETURNING TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS AFT 24/14Z. WINDS BCM SW ABV FL050 AND WILL ATTAIN 70 KT BY
24/18Z AT FL410.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE STARTING
LATER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL GENERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AND TIGHTEN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFO AND UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 74 86 75 / 20 20 30 40
STT 84 75 85 74 / 10 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN JAN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AS A DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON MONDAY. A RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND STRONGER ON TUESDAY
AS SHEARLINE WEAKENS AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WERE MINIMAL. WINDS OVER LAND WERE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 15
TO 20 MPH WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE DISSIPATING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED BULK
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AS
WELL AS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES...THE BASE OF THE POLAR TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THEREFORE...UNDER INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT...SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH EVEN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF FORECAST AREA.

AS RIDGE ALOFT RE-ESTABLISHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. TRADES WILL THEN BRING
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY UNDER RIDGE PATTERN AT ALL
LEVELS. ANOTHER SHEARLINE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH
SCT TO BKN CEILING AT FLV016 AND FLV020 IN TNCM/TKPK. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES IN PR BUT MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONT THRU
25/02Z. BRIEF -SHRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVED ACROSS TJPS/TJMZ
TJBQ/TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM TIME TO TIME. SE SFC WINDS AT 15 TO 21
KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT
AS A WNW SWELL MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL
PASSAGES. THE MONA PASSAGE...THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN WATERS
OF PUERTO RICO WERE INCLUDED IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL INFO AND UPDATES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 75 85 / 20 40 30 40
STT 75 85 74 84 / 20 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST MON JAN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS
A POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE
ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MID TO
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EMERGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DEPICTED PERSISTENT MODERATE
RAINFALL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO
RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. AS THE SHEAR LINE MOVES CLOSER...WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THE BULK
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT MOSTLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AS WELL AS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
EVERYWHERE ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

THE PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE PAST WEEK...WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE RAPIDLY TODAY AS THE BASE OF THE POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY AS THE POLAR TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EMERGING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD WILL INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AND BREEZY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION BY MID WEEK WITH A RETURN TO THE TYPICAL
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN
THE MORNING AND SOME LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...A EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST TODAY AND THEN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AN INCREASING ON
TUESDAY. A SHEAR LINE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO FLYING AREA TODAY...BRINGING CIGS BLO 030 AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUTATIONS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER
25/22Z. ONLY VICINITY SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST
AND TISX. UPPER LEVEL WINDS UP TO 5 KNOTS WILL REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT FL050 INCREASING UP TO 50 KNOTS AT FL250.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY...
CAUSING HAZARDOUS MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EXPOSED
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WATERS. THE LOCAL GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING
THE WAVE HEIGHTS...UP TO 3 FEET IN THE LATEST READINGS. THERE IS A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL BEACHES AND
MODERATE RISK ALONG THE OTHER BEACHES. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PR AS
WELL AS CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN USVI. BREAKING WAVES WILL LIKELY
REACH 12 FEET AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 85 75 / 40 30 40 40
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST MON JAN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE...UNDER THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...
PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN
THE EVENING. AS RIDGE ALOFT RE-ESTABLISHES LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH...THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...BRINGING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH DAY UNDER RIDGE PATTERN AT ALL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER SHRA ENDS THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLAND PR...EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SHRA EMBEDDED ON
EASTERLIES COULD CREATE VCSH AT TIMES ACROSS THE LEEWARD THRU
EASTERN PR TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SFC WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY FM THE EAST AT 10-20
KTS INCREASING AFTER 26/10Z AROUND 15-25 KT. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 26/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AS WELL AS HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ALONG THE NORTHWEST...NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...AND NORTHERN
US VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SURF CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOMORROW...THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS WEEK ACROSS
ALL COASTLINES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL INFO AND UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 75 87 / 50 50 20 20
STT 74 85 74 84 / 50 50 30 20

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 AM AST TUE JAN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
TODAY AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...INCREASING THE
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...A DRIER AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...BUT NOT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREA
OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR THIS MORNING. AS THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
NORTH OF THE REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
THIS HAPPENS...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE
REGION. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN STORE FOR PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY THE
TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH
LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO EACH AFTERNOON. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHTEN
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION LATE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...INCREASING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AND MOSTLY SKC ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER FM 26/09Z-26/13Z...FEW -SHRA EMBEDDED ON PREVAILING
EASTERLIES MAY BRING PATCHES OF L/LVL CLDS AND VCSH AT TIMES ACROSS
THE LEEWARD THRU EASTERN PR TERMINALS. SFC WNDS CALM TO LGT/VRB
OVERNIGHT BCMG E-NE 10-15 KTS OCNL HIGHER GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AFT
25/14Z. L/LVL WNDS FM THE E-NE AT 15-25 KTS AND INCR DURG NXT 24 HRS
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION AND TIGHTENS CL
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BOUY 41053 ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN SEAS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS NORTHWEST
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. REFER TO
LATEST CFWSJU PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFORMATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 87 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 74 85 73 / 20 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST TUE JAN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE A DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS AT MID-UPPER LEVEL...LIMITING THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL TIGHT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL RELAX FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RELOCATES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE PUSHED PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS SINCE THIS MORNING. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TRANQUIL PATTERN IS FORECAST THE REST OF THE WEEK. VERY DRY AND
SUBSIDENCE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL AT MID LEVELS...LIMITING THE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL PLUNGE TO ONE INCH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BASICALLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DAYTIME
SEA BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES. OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA
POSSIBLE AT JSJ/JBQ/JMZ AND IST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND IST AND JSJ OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER PULSE OF NORTH SWELL HAS INVADED THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING THE OVERALL SEAS RELATIVELY
HIGH AT 6-8 FEET. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL ALLOW TO EXPIRE
AT 8 PM IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES. HOWEVER...THE HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 74 87 / 20 20 20 20
STT 74 85 73 83 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 AM AST WED JAN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL DRIFT WEST TODAY AND THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL HOLD THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS IT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. A TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. MID LEVELS ARE GENERALLY DRY UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST TODAY TO THE AZORES AND BUILD
SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL HOLD A RIDGE FROM THE AZORES TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. OVER THE WEEKEND MUCH WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST OVER BERMUDA FROM THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...ALLOWING
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA TO RELAX AND TRADE WINDS TO BE
REDUCED...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AREA OF MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO MANY
PLACES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRIER...BUT NOT ENTIRELY SHOWER-FREE
WEATHER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AND WILL
TEND TO KEEP MOST AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL UNDULATE DOWNWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL PASS THROUGH THE ONE INCH LINE BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INCREASES TO 1.7
INCHES BY WEDNESDAY. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO...BUT EXPECT DAYS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT AROUND THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SPOTTY PASSING SHOWERS WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. -SHRA/SHRA IN TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EN
ROUTE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. SOME OF THIS -SHRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED
TO AFFECT TJSJ/TJPS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE MORNING HRS. AFT 27/17Z
CLOUDINESS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE INTERIOR OF PR AND
DOWNWIND FROM EL YUNQUE ARE EXPECTED. SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST
IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ/TJBQ/TIST DURING THIS PERIOD. SFC EASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KT INCREASING AT 10 TO 20 KT AND GUSTY AFTER
27/13Z. GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY SWELL TO
BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.
OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS AND
BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 FEET AT EXPOSED BEACHES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP TODAY FOR ALL BUT THE INNER COASTAL
WATERS OF MAYAGUEZ. AFTER WINDS SUBSIDE LATE THIS WEEK SEAS WILL
RETURN TO A MORE TRANQUIL STATES BUT THE SURF IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH
AROUND ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 73 / 20 20 20 30
STT 79 78 79 78 / 20 20 20 30

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST WED JAN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE A DRY
AND SUBSIDENCE AIR MASS ALOFT...LIMITING THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS...RESULTING IN BRIEF SHALLOW SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATES OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BRISK EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAVE FAVORED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STREAMERS DOWNWIND OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
THESE LINES OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...LOW MOISTURE CONTENT HAVE RESULTED IN LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS CAN`T RULED
OUT TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

A TRANQUIL PATTERN IS FORECAST THE REST OF THE WEEK. VERY DRY AND
SUBSIDENCE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LIMITING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP AND IT IS FORECAST TO REACH A MINIMUM BETWEEN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VALUES OF 0.8-0.9 INCHES...
BASICALLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEA BREEZES AND LAND BREEZES. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN IN SOME SPOTS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LOW MOISTURE CONTENT. OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A SLIGHTLY
WETTER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NOT WEATHER FLYING
HAZARD EXPECTED. SMALL AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL
PRODUCE VICINITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES TONIGHT. EAST
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DECREASING AT 10
TO 15 AFTER 27/22Z. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 70 KNOTS ABOVE 25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS SHOW THE OVERALL SEAS RELATIVELY HIGH AT 5-7
FEET. IN ADDITION...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KT RESULTING
IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL ALLOW TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 73 88 / 20 20 30 20
STT 78 79 78 79 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST THU JAN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDS NORTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO TODAY WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOW PRESSURE FORMING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
LATER NEXT WEEK WILL CAUSE A TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL RECEDE TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS
FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY WILL
THEN WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WHEN MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FLOW OVER THE
AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF
AFRICA FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WHEN IT
OCCUPIES THE PLACE OF THE HIGH PRESENT TODAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 27
KNOTS...BUT MOST WERE ISOLATED CELLS OF LESS THAN A MILE IN
DIAMETER. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVED OUT OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
AND WERE ABOUT TO EXIT THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS OF 5:30 AM AST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY FELL BELOW 50 PERCENT ABOVE
4700 FEET IN THE 28/00Z SOUNDING AND GENERALLY STAYED WELL BELOW
THAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUNDING THROUGH 40 KFT. WINDS
SHIFTED FROM EASTERLY TO WESTERLY AROUND 12 KFT WITH WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST PEAKING AT 64 KNOTS AROUND 36 KFT. DRYING WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...IF ANY...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP BELOW 0.90 INCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TIL
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BEGIN AN UNSTEADY UPTREND UNTIL IT PEAKS
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL SAG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MET BY MOISTURE FROM THE SUB
TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE UPSHOT IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
TODAY AND TOMORROW. A FEW MORE WILL FORM ON SATURDAY AND THEN
REGULAR SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SEE
A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT
WILL LIKELY BRING MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED THEN...AND SHOWERS WILL
NOT YIELD MORE THAN NOMINAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -SHRA/SHRA EMBEDDED ON
TRADE WINDS EN ROUTE FM LEEWARD TERMINALS TO EASTERN PR TERMINALS
STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WITH BRIEF -SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ ARE EXPECTED
AFT 28/17Z. ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KT INCREASING AT 10 TO 20 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 28/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEAS RISE
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 88 74 / 20 20 20 10
STT 79 78 86 75 / 10 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST THU JAN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC IS CAUSING MODERATE TO FRESH EASE SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE U.S...CAUSING THE LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES...CAUSING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE RAIN WAS OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED IN. A PATCH OF SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY
CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...HOWEVER THE SHOWERS
WILL LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AS
WELL ESPECIALLY FOR PR...WHILE THE USVI MAY HAVE SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE IN. THE WEEKEND LOOKS A
BIT WETTER WITH THE WIND SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EVEN
A BIT MORE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES. SO
CLOUDINESS AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK...MOISTURE AND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STABILIZING AT ABOUT 1.3
INCHES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES OR SO ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW FL100. ISOLD SHWRS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. LOW LVL WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY TO 10-20
KT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SLOWLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY BELOW 7 FEET BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL BEACHES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST COAST OF PR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 88 74 88 / 20 20 10 20
STT 78 86 75 86 / 20 20 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST FRI JAN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST AND
FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEXT WEEK
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND MOVE TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA TO WITHIN
850 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN TO FORM A TROUGH ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL SHIFT INTO
THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL
EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM A LOW PRESSURE IN THE SUB TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO THE
SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY UNTIL MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK WHEN MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK DRY AIR RETURNS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC TO SLOWLY BEGIN WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY
WHERE IT STRENGTHENS. A SECOND HIGH FOLLOWS IT FROM TENNESSEE BY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG FRONT OVER CENTRAL CUBA...WILL
LAY OVER IN THE WATERS NORTH OF US AROUND 22 DEGREES NORTH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO SAG THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT MODELS SHOW DRIER AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SOUTH OF CABO ROJO IN THE
OUTER CARIBBEAN WATERS...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WERE DRY. CURRENT
MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN...MOISTURE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL PLOW SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EVEN AS THE FRONT TILTS
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OF MAINLY
SHALLOW NATURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE WETTEST AREAS WILL MAINLY BE
THE LEEWARD SLOPES. LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST
TODAY BUT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WEAK GAP IN THE
MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE
MOISTURE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THIS WILL LOWER THE
CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY A LITTLE. THEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL FINALLY BE EASED THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK NEXT WEEK BY
ANOTHER HIGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY ON
AN EAST NORTHEAST TRACK. THE HIGH PRESSURE AT MID LEVELS WILL
MAINTAIN A CAP OVER RISING PARCELS IN THE AREA THAT WILL BE QUITE
EFFECTIVE IN ELIMINATING DEEPER CONVECTION UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THAT CAP RETURNS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

BECAUSE MOISTURE IS GENERALLY QUITE SHALLOW...ACCUMULATIONS AND
THE DURATION OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE MOIST AREAS AND THE OLD
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE
WETTER AREAS MOST OF THE DAYS NEXT WEEK UNTIL THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES. THE MODEL TREND FOR THE MOISTURE IN THE
BOUNDARY CROSSING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK HAS BEEN TO GENERALLY DEGRADE
IT AND THIS WILL NOT LIKELY BE REVERSED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER PR INCREASING AROUND
15 KT FROM THE ESE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 29/13Z. SURFACE WINDS
AT THE USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS ARE FROM THE
ESE...AROUND 10 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT
AFTER 29/13Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ENROUTE FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO EASTERN PR FROM TIME TO TIME...WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS
WERE SHOWING 7 FOOT SEAS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING THE BOUNDARY
PASSAGE DISCUSSED ABOVE...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DUE TO
WINDS OVER THE AREA AND THEREFORE THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 88 74 / 10 30 30 30
STT 79 75 86 74 / 20 30 30 30

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST FRI JAN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS DOMINATING THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...CAUSING FAIR WEATHER WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL OVER
THE WATERS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY WAS VERY LIMITED...AND IT
WAS MAINLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE USVI. SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS MOVING IN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO
OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AN NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AS THE
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH THE LIMITED BUT SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE IS STILL SHALLOW WITH A STRONG
CAP...BUT IT DOES GET SLIGHTLY DEEPER...SO SHOWERS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY THE WIND BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND THE MOISTURE
DECREASES SLIGHTLY. STILL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...CONCENTRATING OVER THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR IN THE MORNING...THEN WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL CAUSE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE USVI.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR TONIGHT THROUGH 30/16Z.
THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE OF SHRA INCREASES FOR WESTERN PR WHICH MAY
CAUSE AT LEAST VCSH AT TJBQ AND TJMZ BUT POSSIBLE SHRA AT THE
STATIONS AFTER 30/17Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 5-10KT
OVERNIGHT...THEN ESE AT 10-15KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 74 87 / 30 30 30 30
STT 74 85 74 84 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST SAT JAN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANYING A
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE
ARCHIPELAGO AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRACES OF
SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT LEAST
UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER 2 AM...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENTERED FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE DOPPLER
RADAR DETECTED SOME SHOWERS OVER WATER...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...THE
USVI AND THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IN GENERAL CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SURFACE MOISTURE FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH STABLE CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED AT MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW
PERHAPS NO MORE THAN 15 KFT. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE AND SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALSO...MODEL GUIDANCE AND
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST
OVER THE REGION.

FOR SUNDAY THE SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STILL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...FOCUSING ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR IN THE
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON.

PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL CAUSE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE USVI.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE PASSING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFT 30/10Z. SCT LLVL AND BKN MID LVL
CLDS MOVG WWD OVER TISX/TIST BUT WEAKENING AS THEY PASS OVER PR.
AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS. MOISTURE AND SHRA ALSO TO INCREASE OVR PR
AFT 30/12Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS THRU 30/20Z.
MAINLY VFR AT TAF SITES TJPS/TJSJ/TJBQ. SFC WINDS E 5 TO 15 KTS WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES BCMG SE AFT 30/15Z. WINDS ALF ELY UP TO
FL230 THEN BCMG NW AND INCRG TO 30 KT AT FL460.

&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI ARE INDICATING
SEAS BETWEEN 2-4 FEET AND EAST WINDS BETWEEN 9-12 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE
BUOY...41043...INDICATES SEAS UP TO 5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 12 KT.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
AS SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE EAST END OF ST CROIX AND THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 72 87 74 / 40 30 30 50
STT 84 74 85 73 / 40 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST SAT JAN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE SURGE WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE REST
OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT.
THE HIGH IS TO THEN REPOSITION ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY TRADES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION
AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FEW QUICK PASSING SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE REGION. SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OR DETECTED
BY THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR ACROSS THE ISLANDS OR COASTAL WATERS.

DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT DECREASING
CLOUDINESS...AS THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL EXIT THE REGION LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LIGHT TRADE WINDS MAY
HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BRING A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...MOSTLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL IS FORECAST. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS SO FAR...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME LOCAL AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER SHRA ENDS AROUND 22Z-23Z OVER INTERIOR/WESTERN
PR AND BKN/OVC LAYERS BTW FL070-FL100 MOVES OVER THE MONA PASSAGE.
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY -SHRA EMBEDDED ON TRADES EN ROUTE FM LEEWARD
TO USVI TERMINALS COULD MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SFC WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE EAST AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI WERE PRESENTLY
INDICATING SEAS OF 3 FEET OR LESS AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE BUOY...41043...INDICATES SEAS NOW LESS
THAN 5 FEET AND WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AS SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE EAST END OF
ST CROIX AND THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 73 87 / 30 30 40 40
STT 73 85 73 83 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE...IT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL AID IN INCREASING TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LAYER OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS BRIEFLY MOVED OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS. SO FAR NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OR DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR.

TODAY WE EXPECT LESS MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY BUT NEAR NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENOUGH TO
LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME FOCUSING ACROSS THE
USVI AND EASTERN PR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THESE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS SO FAR...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. BY MID WEEK...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE
OVER THE REGION...BUT THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING SCT -SHRA AND AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS. VFR WILL PREVAIL
AT TAF SITES UNTIL AFT 31/17Z AREAS OF SHRA IN INTERIOR WESTERN PR
WITH PDS OF MVFR CIGS FOR TJMZ. WINDS E 5 TO 15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES. WINDS ALF E UP TO 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ARND FL075-
120...BCMG WNW ARND FL260 AND INCREASING TO 42 KNOTS AT FL450.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
2 TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TO
WRAP AROUND THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO FROM AGUADILLA THROUGH SAN
JUAN TO HUMACAO. IN ADDITION...THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE FOR THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF RINCON...CULEBRA...SAINT
THOMAS/SAINT JOHN...AND ST CROIX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 86 76 / 20 40 40 20
STT 82 72 82 77 / 20 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO ERODE BY TUESDAY AND DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THEN DEEPEN AND SINK SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX ACROSS THE REGION. THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL AGAIN INCREASE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL INDUCE A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECAME VARIABLY
CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AS A A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL TRADE
WIND MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE NOTED DEVELOPING AND QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SOME OF THE ISLANDS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO WERE
ALONG THE PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN AND AROUND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL SO FAR.

STILL MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIRLY LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF SHALLOW TRADE WIND MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION... OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. BY MID WEEK...INSTABILITY SHOULD SLIGHTLY
INCREASE OVER THE REGION...AS THE RIDGE ALOFT ERODES. HOWEVER...
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS NO SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY.
THEREFORE MOSTLY TYPICAL SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHRA AROUND TJPS/TJMZ/TJBQ EXPECTED TO END BY 31/24Z.
EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH 31/23Z...DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...AROUND 5KT OR LESS
OVER THE PUERTO RICO TERMINALS. ISOLD/SCT BRIEF SHRA OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MAY CAUSE VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6
FEET. A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE BEACHES OF NORTH AND EASTERN
PR INCLUDING CULEBRA...ALSO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 88 73 86 / 40 40 20 20
STT 73 84 73 84 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST MON FEB 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK...DEEPENING
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION WILL INDUCE A SET OF SURFACE TROUGHS TODAY
INTO TUESDAY. BY MID WEEK ANOTHER ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DRIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL
INDUCE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SURGE OF MOISTURE REACHED AND MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING MAINLY OVER
THE WATERS...THE EASTERN HALF OF PR AND THE USVI. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME SHOULD PERSIST MOST OF THE
DAY.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING
NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL INDUCE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL COMBINED WITH SHALLOW TRADE WIND MOISTURE. THIS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PR AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS...FOLLOWED
BY LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...OVER PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. BY MID WEEK...
INSTABILITY SHOULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION...AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT ERODES...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPED AND DEEPEN
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VICINITY SHRA ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND THE USVI ISLANDS TAF SITES. AS
THIS MOISTURE MOVES WESTWARD VICINITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJPS...TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 01/17Z. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
NEAR 15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 01/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND PASSAGES DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FT...ELSEWHERE SEAS UP TO
5 FEET...WITH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SHORT PERIOD NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS THE BEACHES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CULEBRA AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 72 85 74 / 30 20 20 40
STT 83 73 85 73 / 30 20 20 40