STORM2K

That line in KS did make it just far enough south to give me around .02in of rain but at least it's something. I just got upgraded to a marginal risk for tonight so maybe we can get something there as well, as long as tomorrow stays dry.

12z GFS is quite the run there and next week is looking pretty great for rain/storms but it's a week out so there's obviously enough time for that to change like usual...

I do think we need to keep an eye on this Friday however, just a marginal risk for now, but I think we could see some upgrades on later outlooks. Parameters are looking decent for a wind/hail event, probably not much of a tornado threat. Will be interesting to see what the CAMs show over the next couple days.

12z gfs is beautiful I hope it pans out! Would alleviate a lot of the drought!!

Ntxw wrote:12z gfs is beautiful I hope it pans out! Would alleviate a lot of the drought!!

I do not recall any models showing so much rain this year within 5-10 days, so I would say the odds of a big rain event are rather high now. It's more than one model showing lots of rain too, so that's even more optimistic. Also, so much rain in this time period should help decrease afternoon temperatures quite a bit.

Ntxw wrote:12z gfs is beautiful I hope it pans out! Would alleviate a lot of the drought!!

The question I have is where’s this coming from with so many negative factors working against it?

Cpv17 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:12z gfs is beautiful I hope it pans out! Would alleviate a lot of the drought!!

The question I have is where’s this coming from with so many negative factors working against it?

CCKW passage over the Pacific and western hemisphere this past week. So it's a little taste of pseudo ninoesque forcing. Pacific convection is mostly a good thing. It's mostly over though so the pattern lags a bit. I think it reverts back because nothing supports it after as things go back to the background state. 3-4 or 3-6 days of relief.

Ntxw wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:12z gfs is beautiful I hope it pans out! Would alleviate a lot of the drought!!

The question I have is where’s this coming from with so many negative factors working against it?

CCKW passage over the Pacific and western hemisphere this past week. So it's a little taste of pseudo ninoesque forcing. Pacific convection is mostly a good thing. It's mostly over though so the pattern lags a bit. I think it reverts back because nothing supports it after as things go back to the background state. 3-4 or 3-6 days of relief.

I'm not so sure about that. Latest ensembles continue to hint at a slight weakness developing over the region during the last few days of May and into early June. Will likely bring another round of unsettled weather if it verifies.

South Texas Storms wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:Back to Texas again.lol

Probably not within range of the NHC forecasts yet to get their attention. Sea temps warm, but lots of shear. Would be the earliest Texas landfalling hurricane since records began. I think I heard June 1967 was the earliest Texas landfall(?). Not sure.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022051212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_64.png

That run is from 5 days ago. The GFS continues to be an outlier in developing a TC in the northwest Caribbean later this month. It's solution is quite unlikely.

Oh geez. Sorry about that! I just realized that. When I went back to the model, it remembered where I was from before. Forgot to update it. Ugh. Never mind.

South Texas Storms wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
The question I have is where’s this coming from with so many negative factors working against it?

CCKW passage over the Pacific and western hemisphere this past week. So it's a little taste of pseudo ninoesque forcing. Pacific convection is mostly a good thing. It's mostly over though so the pattern lags a bit. I think it reverts back because nothing supports it after as things go back to the background state. 3-4 or 3-6 days of relief.

I'm not so sure about that. Latest ensembles continue to hint at a slight weakness developing over the region during the last few days of May and into early June. Will likely bring another round of unsettled weather if it verifies.

I'm skeptical given sinking motion returning to the central Pacific and OLR returning to the MC. We'll have to see what the CAG does. It could get trapped under a ridge as it moves north. I'll take that but I don't trust it.

Good news: no 100s this week I think unless we hit it at DFW and I missed it, but tomorrow through Friday look to be below.

rwfromkansas wrote:Good news: no 100s this week I think unless we hit it at DFW and I missed it, but tomorrow through Friday look to be below.

No 100s, one more chance to tomorrow but for the most part we've managed to keep under forecast a little bit each day with cloud cover and/or higher dews.

WPC is looking really nice for Texas, I see 4-5 inches of rain in the next 7 days from the WPC

Best looking WPC QPF map in 2022 for Texas.

FYI a little unrelated but for those who haven't read, Hunga-Tonga eruption back in January in the South Pacific was the largest volcanic eruption since Krakatoa in 1883 now that more data has come in. It's plume reached 36 miles, highest that we've recorded in modern history. For comparison Pinatubo in 1991 reached 22 miles up. Early on this was very much a muted incident as far as how much/how high it's plume went with lack of data and everyone playing the safe card. Definitely a wild card with a lot of questions what role it will play as the months go on.

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: Best looking WPC QPF map in 2022 for Texas.

https://i.imgur.com/4PTxHNQ.gif

I’ll let Texas have the fun, I had enough of the rainfall now that I’m out of the drought.

The colder temperatures would be very nice because my AC unit is bad, out of Freon and it has a hole in it (Sucking in the air by itself). It’s going to be a while (or a couple of weeks) before it’s replaced because the unit is considered a total loss.

Ntxw wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
CCKW passage over the Pacific and western hemisphere this past week. So it's a little taste of pseudo ninoesque forcing. Pacific convection is mostly a good thing. It's mostly over though so the pattern lags a bit. I think it reverts back because nothing supports it after as things go back to the background state. 3-4 or 3-6 days of relief.

I'm not so sure about that. Latest ensembles continue to hint at a slight weakness developing over the region during the last few days of May and into early June. Will likely bring another round of unsettled weather if it verifies.

I'm skeptical given sinking motion returning to the central Pacific and OLR returning to the MC. We'll have to see what the CAG does. It could get trapped under a ridge as it moves north. I'll take that but I don't trust it.

It also looks like there will be another MJO or CCKW pulse across the Pacific as we move into June. That would be another opportunity to shake things up and probably our first legit window for tropical threats. Also, the QBO is rather low and that can favor Western troughing and potentially keep a big heat ridge from setting up over the Southern Plains. It looks like this might occur via QBO modulation of tropical convection. The current QBO/ENSO phasing pairs up more closely to 2013 and is the opposite of 2011. The last big -QBO summer was 2015 (but ENSO was more favorable for Texas rain)

It looks like areas of Eastern and NE DFW could actually end up with above avg rainfall for Spring, esp. if this pans out. Some areas have already had 10"+ of rain so far this Spring.

bubba hotep wrote:It looks like areas of Eastern and NE DFW could actually end up with above avg rainfall for Spring, esp. if this pans out. Some areas have already had 10"+ of rain so far this Spring.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTEPQnwWUAY2Wfl?format=png&name=medium

That map is beautiful!!

bubba hotep wrote:It looks like areas of Eastern and NE DFW could actually end up with above avg rainfall for Spring, esp. if this pans out. Some areas have already had 10"+ of rain so far this Spring.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTEPQnwWUAY2Wfl?format=png&name=medium

Austin got 3.8" in May 2011. Right now we're at a 1/2" so I reallllyyy hope we can at least beat that number

Fire that started yesterday southwest of View (near Abilene) has gotten worse. It jumped containment and Hwy US 277 and now Buffalo Gap has been ordered to evacuation. NWS San Angelo has put up a Fire Warning.

 https://twitter.com/TravisABC13/status/1527077932778377217




 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1527095712692858880