Texas Fall 2018

[gpsnowman]

Happy Sunday everyone. A little taste of delicious autumn this morning. 70 degrees with a north breeze to kick off NFL Sunday. Fantastic early September weather. Go Cowboys!!!

[Haris]

This is nice !!!!

[South Texas Storms]

Beautiful to see! I'm loving this wet weather pattern

[weatherdude1108]

Another 0.5-inch in the gauge. Raining moderately for a while. Ponding in corner of yard in typical ponding or cracking spot. Widespread rain.

Up to 3.25 inches since last Monday, Labor Day.

Careful driving out there if in this area!

[weatherdude1108]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0811
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
557 AM EDT Sun Sep 09 2018

Areas affected...SRN TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090957Z - 091457Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall was escalating in coverage this morning
over the Texas Hill Country and south Texas. Flash flooding is
likely, with rapid accumulation of 3-plus inches of rainfall.

Discussion...At 0945Z the number of flash flood warnings from
local offices was increasing ahead of two mesoscale convective
vortices (MCVs) located one near San Antonio and the other along
the Rio Grande to the south. These vortices were the result of
latent heat release from prior overnight convection feeding back
on the weak synoptic mid level flow. An upstream 250-mb trough
axis placed this region under a difluent flow regime aloft,
further supporting organization and gentle lifting of the near
2.25 inch precipitable water values per the SPC mesoanalysis.

All cell motions are analyzed as zero to ten knots based on the
vertical wind profile over the region. Steering flow for the MCVs
will take them generally eastward into the instability axis, with
uncapped mixed-layer CAPE values of several hundred J/kg in the
Hill Country increasing to near 2000 J/kg at the coast.
Additionally, a surface frontal zone increasing in strength was
already leading to an expansion of new convection extending
northeast from San Antonio toward Bastrop.

Instability will gradually be consumed, and without sustained low
level inflow, there is a limit to how much rain will fall at any
given location. But the extremely efficient, tropical environment,
coupled with broad lift and sufficient instability, should yield
some rapid accumulations of 3-plus inches of rain. The 08Z HRRR
and 00Z NSSL WRF were doing particularly well depicting this.
Flash flooding appears likely, especially in the more prone Hill
Country where FFG is also lower. But some lowered FFG also exists
near and north of Corpus Christi where models depict a secondary
maximum of rainfall this morning.

Burke

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

[austin06]

Has been raining steadily for hours. With the 2 inches overnight Friday, we have a total of 4 1/4 inches so far today. I think that puts us at 7+ inches since Labor day. Oh, and the ban burn has been lifted (the least good news to me).

What a difference a week makes. I imagine a lot of low water crossings are flooded out.

[Haris]

Been raining since 5am and still is in Austin .

1.79” at my house today .

Total : 8.1

[South Texas Storms]

Another 2-4 inches fell across SA this morning bringing the monthly total at the airport to over 10 inches. My parent's house on the north side of town has received over 12 inches. Incredible start to September!

Now some models are hinting at a weak tropical depression moving inland across south TX late this week.

[Cpv17]

We just received another 1.2” here so that puts our total at 7.7” since this wet pattern developed almost two weeks ago here. The ground has soaked in most of it so that goes to show how dry it was here.

[weatherdude1108]

Another 2-4 inches fell across SA this morning bringing the monthly total at the airport to over 10 inches. My parent's house on the north side of town has received over 12 inches. Incredible start to September!

Now some models are hinting at a weak tropical depression moving inland across south TX late this week.

My dad in San Antonio said he has received 10 and 5/8 inches since last Tuesday. Amazing totals!

[weatherdude1108]

Another 0.5-inch in the gauge. Raining moderately for a while. Ponding in corner of yard in typical ponding or cracking spot. Widespread rain.

Up to 3.25 inches since last Monday, Labor Day.

Careful driving out there if in this area!

Update:
Add another inch to that since this morning, making mine a measly 4.75 inches since Labor Day.

[Ntxw]

Hi temp at DFW today so far has been 75F. Dew points lower than past days and a slight northerly breeze. Feels amazing. Fall is here.

[Haris]

[South Texas Storms]

Yep I've been watching this for several days now. Models now finally starting to show some development. I think chances for a weak tropical system are increasing for south TX.

[Cpv17]

:uarrow:
Yep I've been watching this for several days now. Models now finally starting to show some development. I think chances for a weak tropical system are increasing for south TX.

Usually I keep up with stuff like this, but for me this came out of nowhere. I was completely unaware there was even something in the Caribbean headed our way till about 3 hours ago lol

[weatherdude1108]

Hi temp at DFW today so far has been 75F. Dew points lower than past days and a slight northerly breeze. Feels amazing. Fall is here.

Here too at my house, the high on my weather station today has been 75 degrees!

[Ntxw]

To note the 75F high today at DFW if it holds is only a few degrees shy of the daily lowest "max" by a few degrees (71F in 1935)

[aggiecutter]

[Haris]

icon . holy smacks

[Cpv17]

icon . holy smacks

I’ve noticed a big fault in the icon model is that it always keeps the heaviest rain offshore even when a system moves inland. I don’t put my stock into that model for anything