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Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:16 pm
by Brent
Weather Dude wrote:I'm actually somewhat interested in the 6z SPC outlook. Rare for September, but both the NAM and HRRR show a solid line moving through OK/TX during the mid-afternoon/evening. Soundings look pretty bad for anything too strong. Any severe threat will be very very low, but there's at least a chance we can at least end up with a solid storm tomorrow. After over a month will no rain, I'll take anything at this point.
Yeah I was looking at that earlier and surprised there's no risk. We will definitely see
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:18 pm
by ElectricStorm
Brent wrote:Weather Dude wrote:I'm actually somewhat interested in the 6z SPC outlook. Rare for September, but both the NAM and HRRR show a solid line moving through OK/TX during the mid-afternoon/evening. Soundings look pretty bad for anything too strong. Any severe threat will be very very low, but there's at least a chance we can at least end up with a solid storm tomorrow. After over a month will no rain, I'll take anything at this point.
Yeah I was looking at that earlier and surprised there's no risk
They didn't even mention OK at all in today's disco, so I probably shouldn't get my hopes up. But after these last couple months I need storms lol
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:24 am
by Brent
Weather Dude wrote:Brent wrote:Weather Dude wrote:I'm actually somewhat interested in the 6z SPC outlook. Rare for September, but both the NAM and HRRR show a solid line moving through OK/TX during the mid-afternoon/evening. Soundings look pretty bad for anything too strong. Any severe threat will be very very low, but there's at least a chance we can at least end up with a solid storm tomorrow. After over a month will no rain, I'll take anything at this point.
Yeah I was looking at that earlier and surprised there's no risk
They didn't even mention OK at all in today's disco, so I probably shouldn't get my hopes up. But after these last couple months I need storms lol
Nope still no risk here... Slight and moderate down in Texas
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:31 am
by Iceresistance
Brent wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Brent wrote:
Yeah I was looking at that earlier and surprised there's no risk
They didn't even mention OK at all in today's disco, so I probably shouldn't get my hopes up. But after these last couple months I need storms lol
Nope still no risk here... Slight and moderate down in Texas
NWS-Norman features a Marginal risk up to OKC along I-44 SW to Texas . . .
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:35 am
by Iceresistance
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:49 am
by cstrunk
Still dry in Longview. Doesn't look very promising today or tomorrow. Perhaps Saturday.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:34 am
by WacoWx
If I am heading to the Woodlands for golf tomorrow and Saturday, am I looing at a rain shield (all day rain event) or pop-up rain/storms??
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:05 am
by Iceresistance
Skies are getting darker in OKC, the storms are getting closer . . .
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:24 am
by ElectricStorm
Storm blew up just to my west. Hopefully it won't be pouring when I walk to my next class
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:36 am
by Ntxw
Ntxw wrote:There's definitely some chances for rainfall the next few days but I would keep expectations at a decent level. The upper feature in the southwest will provide favorable flow for Fall season type rain.
But we must remember we are now approaching a 2nd year La Nina and more importantly the PDO has been negative for nearly all of 2020-2021. This is a hard truth we must consider. The copious rainfall totals prior to 2019 is over in the warm PDO period. Gradually, the record months of rainfall have come to a halt and the dry spells are outlasting the wet spells that will continue, outside of a tropical influx event, and we've all seen it well now. Rainfall will likely risk underperforming rather than overperform in the coming months to possibly a year.
We haven't entered the Super Ninas that kickstarts the prolonged drought yet, thankfully. Most have been able to muster about average annual rainfall the past couple of years.
I still think is the case and this recent week of opportunistic rainfall has largely become underwhelming. We'll still see chances and some areas have received pretty good rains but it is localized and sparse in between. Most will be lucky to register an 1". There's no tropical Pacific connection. It's an ugly Nina coupled pattern right now with the -PDO, western troughs that underperform because no Pacific moisture.
Luckily cold waters of the Nina event are heavily centered west of South America in the Southern Hemisphere. If it were -PDO dominant cold strength in the Northern Hemisphere we'd risk a 2011-2012 type Nina dud winter.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:18 am
by rwfromkansas
The prediction of underwhelming proved correct.
QPF from NWS seems reduced in the graphic they posted yesterday, and now their chance graphics don't really show 90 percent anymore. Friday was supposed to be the best chance of rain, and now it's reduced to 50 percent during the day IMBY.
It is cooling down though, hallelujah. But, not turning off my sprinklers until I get an inch.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:39 am
by Iceresistance
It is POURING outside right now at School . . .
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:56 am
by Brent
Looking promising here but I can see how this is not gonna be the widespread everyone gets a soaking rain type deal down in Texas especially. It's too scattered
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:16 pm
by Cerlin
The rain in Norman has been nice for a change. We were approaching 2 months without more than a quarter inch of rain. Rain might be underperforming for a lot of Texas but underperforming rain is still better than no rain. Interested to see how storms develop in the slight risk in Texas today--and interested to see if we get any hailers. I'm looking at you Del Rio.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:21 pm
by ElectricStorm
Cerlin wrote:The rain in Norman has been nice for a change. We were approaching 2 months without more than a quarter inch of rain. Rain might be underperforming for a lot of Texas but underperforming rain is still better than no rain. Interested to see how storms develop in the slight risk in Texas today--and interested to see if we get any hailers. I'm looking at you Del Rio.
For sure. Pretty much the first time it's rained since I got here in mid August. It's nice to hear thunder again
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:47 pm
by bubba hotep
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:50 pm
by bubba hotep
That is a nasty and ill timed outflow boundary on DFW radar... Probably why hi-res models now have storms missing DFW to the South. What a bust this week has turned out to be for DFW, storms have moved all around the metroplex but mostly avoided it lol
I would suspect that FWD will drop the widespread 80% pops for tonight at some point this evening.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:31 pm
by Iceresistance
Yes! The drought can finally go away for once!
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:58 pm
by rwfromkansas
It keeps thundering. But, zip. Some to my southwest that will either evaporate or miss me and stuff to the west that’s moving so slow it won’t get into DFW.
Come on, man.
Re: Texas Fall 2021
Posted: Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:12 pm
by gpsnowman
rwfromkansas wrote:It keeps thundering. But, zip. Some to my southwest that will either evaporate or miss me and stuff to the west that’s moving so slow it won’t get into DFW.
Come on, man.
Yep for the third day in a row I've had about 3 minutes of light rain and then poof. Gimmie a freakin break!!
