STORM2K

While signs are growing that the -NAO type pattern might lock in for an extended period of time we will need to wait for the Pacific to come around. Models show the EPO and WPO heading back towards the positive range but the models have, at times, been too aggressive lately with sending the EPO positive. There are also significant differences in how the GFS and Euro handle the MJO and this will also cause some issues in the longer range. By D15 the Euro EPS, and to a lesser extent the GEFS, has the coldest air still bottled up on the others side of the globe. The ensembles, even with some disagreement in the evolution of the Pacific pattern, show below normal 850s returning to Texas beyond D10. However, it may take some time for the Pacific to shuffle around and allow for really cold air to build in our source region.

Now the operational runs are different, the 00z Euro is much more aggressive than the EPS in building cold in our source region:



This is similar to the 00z GFS:



I suspect that the operational runs are moving too fast with the pattern shuffle and I would expect to see something like this in early December. However, the ensembles have contently been too warm in the longer range here recently.

Ntxw wrote:Also as a reminder we will be moving to the winter, yes WINTER thread in 2 weeks! We live for this.

Looks like some have already moved to it. It's 10 pages long already!

Brent wrote:

Haris wrote:[url]https://image.ibb.co/f8he70/Screen-Shot-2018-11-15-at-9-41-04-PM.png [/url]

its not just us....


NYC tonight

they have lost their right to make fun of us...

0z GFS fantasy snow in DFW November 29th.

12z GFS has a system in that range but cuts it inland towards the Great Lakes keepinv Texas in the warm sector.

Also, it is worth noting that the FV3 did pretty well with this last system in the East. It looks like it will be a decent upgrade over the current GFS.

The Globals are now hinting at something starting to show up the week after Thanksgiving. Plenty of time to watch and likely changes a million times until. But a pretty decent hint of a major storm coming down the west coast final week of November.

The early hard freezes and scattered flurries Texas has seen is just the precursor to what's coming this Winter.

CaptinCrunch wrote:The early hard freezes and scattered flurries Texas has seen is just the precursor to what's coming this Winter.

And how confident are you on that happening?

Ntxw wrote:The Globals are now hinting at something starting to show up the week after Thanksgiving. Plenty of time to watch and likely changes a million times until. But a pretty decent hint of a major storm coming down the west coast final week of November.

I saw that too, but I don’t see any cold air with it. Just looks like a lot of rain. There doesn’t really seem to be any strong high pressures building in our source region to drive any cold air down here.

Cpv17 wrote:

CaptinCrunch wrote:The early hard freezes and scattered flurries Texas has seen is just the precursor to what's coming this Winter.

And how confident are you on that happening?

pretty confident...

the ingredients for a "cold & wet" winter are pressent unlike the past couple of winters, Now it's just a matter of them coming together. This year isn't a matter of "IF" but rather a matter of "WHEN".

Cpv17 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:The Globals are now hinting at something starting to show up the week after Thanksgiving. Plenty of time to watch and likely changes a million times until. But a pretty decent hint of a major storm coming down the west coast final week of November.

I saw that too, but I don’t see any cold air with it. Just looks like a lot of rain. There doesn’t really seem to be any strong high pressures building in our source region to drive any cold air down here.

12z Euro has a lot of energy sloshing around out West with cold air over the top. Just need to get timing and orientation right.



ETA: However, the EPS is more strung out and warmer.

Cpv17 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:The Globals are now hinting at something starting to show up the week after Thanksgiving. Plenty of time to watch and likely changes a million times until. But a pretty decent hint of a major storm coming down the west coast final week of November.

I saw that too, but I don’t see any cold air with it. Just looks like a lot of rain. There doesn’t really seem to be any strong high pressures building in our source region to drive any cold air down here.

How cold has Canada been? Not all that cold really but yet we are experiencing a cold November. It is all about placement and timing.

Yet Canada has been really cold the past 2 winters and we saw some extreme warmth.

Models have performed not so well with below normal air beyond 3-5 days. You can see it pretty well. High at DFW this Sunday may not be much more than 40!

Ntxw wrote:https://images2.imgbox.com/a1/47/%20XQIEuLFL_o.png

https://images2.imgbox.com/cc/a0/t1LVzT83%20_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/76/da/BO2ssC%20ud_o.jpg

12/4/2009 huh?

Ntxw wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:The Globals are now hinting at something starting to show up the week after Thanksgiving. Plenty of time to watch and likely changes a million times until. But a pretty decent hint of a major storm coming down the west coast final week of November.

I saw that too, but I don’t see any cold air with it. Just looks like a lot of rain. There doesn’t really seem to be any strong high pressures building in our source region to drive any cold air down here.

How cold has Canada been? Not all that cold really but yet we are experiencing a cold November. It is all about placement and timing.

Yet Canada has been really cold the past 2 winters and we saw some extreme warmth.

Models have performed not so well with below normal air beyond 3-5 days. You can see it pretty well. High at DFW this Sunday may not be much more than 40!

Yeah remember when Sunday was not that cold in the 50s?

We just need that for an expected cold rain now ala February 2010 and nobody will be complaining

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:

Ntxw wrote:https://images2.imgbox.com/a1/47/%20XQIEuLFL_o.png

https://images2.imgbox.com/cc/a0/t1LVzT83%20_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/76/da/BO2ssC%20ud_o.jpg

12/4/2009 huh?

'63 was also a +ENSO Dec that saw snow at DFW.

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:

Ntxw wrote:https://images2.imgbox.com/a1/47/%20XQIEuLFL_o.png

https://images2.imgbox.com/cc/a0/t1LVzT83%20_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/76/da/BO2ssC%20ud_o.jpg

12/4/2009 huh?

That whole package is pretty good! They are very close in patterns. 1963 and 1977 are also in there. Let's give it a chance to unfold, it's not even winter yet technically .

bubba hotep wrote:

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:

Ntxw wrote:https://images2.imgbox.com/a1/47/%20XQIEuLFL_o.png

https://images2.imgbox.com/cc/a0/t1LVzT83%20_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/76/da/BO2ssC%20ud_o.jpg

12/4/2009 huh?

'63 was also a +ENSO Dec that saw snow at DFW.

63-64 another of the very few foot plus winters at DFW

bubba hotep wrote:

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:

Ntxw wrote:https://images2.imgbox.com/a1/47/%20XQIEuLFL_o.png

https://images2.imgbox.com/cc/a0/t1LVzT83%20_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/76/da/BO2ssC%20ud_o.jpg

12/4/2009 huh?

'63 was also a +ENSO Dec that saw snow at DFW.

December 1963 was extreme. Also hit 4F that winter. If 1963-1964 happened again the Texas threads would go crazy. 2009-2010 with all the snow craziness was not that terribly cold, raw temperature wise, just consistent below normal.

I’m growing impatient over here lol I’m ready for some cold air to start showing up on the models.

Cpv17 wrote:I’m growing impatient over here lol I’m ready for some cold air to start showing up on the models.

Same... this early cold snap/flizzard got me in the mood and I'm ready for the real winter now... Really hope we get a snowstorm by Christmas again but unlike last year DFW better not get shutout...

the 0z Euro is turning colder at the end of the run it appears

Here is why models have performed not so well with medium and long term cold, even the Euro and its group. They keep promoting a moderation of the East Pacific Oscillation into positive for duration, it's just not happening. If you go back the past 60-90 days the EPO has largely fallen negative and been on the lower end of the guidance. This is supported by the warm "blob" in the Gulf of Alaska.