Page 92 of 112
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:59 am
by Ntxw
In other news the daily SOI is tanking negative. Rule of thumb in cold season is 7-14 days look for high impact precipitation events.
17 Nov 2018 1009.46 1010.55 -25.26 -0.18 -2.26
16 Nov 2018 1010.92 1010.25 -14.06 0.96 -1.96
15 Nov 2018 1012.26 1009.65 -1.72 1.84 -1.71
14 Nov 2018 1011.45 1008.65 -0.51 2.43 -1.56
13 Nov 2018 1011.49 1008.20 2.61 3.16 -1.59
12 Nov 2018 1011.85 1009.05 -0.51 3.98 -1.74
11 Nov 2018 1012.94 1008.30 11.20 4.80 -1.96
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 2:36 pm
by Cpv17
The 12z Euro kind of has an interesting setup towards the end of the run. Doesn’t look that great, but not bad either.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:55 pm
by TheProfessor
ooh wee the end of the 12 FV3 lol. This might be my last December in Texas as my family will be moving next year. I'd love to have a special one for the record books.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:22 pm
by Cpv17
TheProfessor wrote:ooh wee the end of the 12 FV3 lol. This might be my last December in Texas as my family will be moving next year. I'd love to have a special one for the record books.
I don’t really see anything too special about it for Texas. Snow in Oklahoma and rain in Texas with a blizzard headed towards Ohio.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:30 pm
by TeamPlayersBlue
Cpv17 wrote:TheProfessor wrote:ooh wee the end of the 12 FV3 lol. This might be my last December in Texas as my family will be moving next year. I'd love to have a special one for the record books.
I don’t really see anything too special about it for Texas. Snow in Oklahoma and rain in Texas with a blizzard headed towards Ohio.
That set up is basically what we need for a monster storm. The model likely has the surface temps wrong. The setup is near perfect.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:42 pm
by Cpv17
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Cpv17 wrote:TheProfessor wrote:ooh wee the end of the 12 FV3 lol. This might be my last December in Texas as my family will be moving next year. I'd love to have a special one for the record books.
I don’t really see anything too special about it for Texas. Snow in Oklahoma and rain in Texas with a blizzard headed towards Ohio.
That set up is basically what we need for a monster storm. The model likely has the surface temps wrong. The setup is near perfect.
Yeah I agree. By looking at this you would think this would be a significant system for us, but there’s not really much moisture or much cold air on the model during this period. It really bombs out east of us though and looks like a major nor’easter. It doesn’t really look like there’s much cold air available for that trough to pull down from Canada for us so maybe that’s why? Source region is too warm?
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:42 pm
by bubba hotep
Euro control run has a monster snow storm for N. Texas in the long range.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:38 pm
by TheProfessor
I'm not going to make a big deal for hour 384 of any model lol. Anyways I'll be in Texas for a few days next week and after that I won't be back till the 14th, so a blizzard in Ohio on December 5th would actually make me quite happy lol.
Edit: Oops 3rd not 5th lol.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:53 pm
by Ntxw
This is my interpretation of the models. Probably not wise to get hung up on 240 hours+. The players are still the same, cold air aloft, a Greenland block, Northeast Canada block, and a decent Pacific. We are looking for storms now on the guidance because ensembles for the past week have shown lower than average 500mb heights in the southern plains and southeast US. This is the birthplace for systems that crash into the west coast. They go the path of least resistance. At first you're going to see models try to send storms into the block, it's not likely to happen. It's bad physics. In years with -AO/-NAO blocks storms like to travel the more southern path into the lower heights through the southeast and out into the mid-Atlantic and open Atlantic, not into the Lakes. But the guidance loves to do that before the blocks are in play.
We have been watching for the storms to show after Thanksgiving and they are slowly but surely. The first will likely carve a deep trough and systems that follow it will continue to go south. While the surface often shows warmer than one would think (on models) this is the kind of year you don't really look at that until about 3 days out. If it's colder aloft (850mb temps often can tell you in times like this) the nature of how deep the cold air is for these systems they will find surface or make it. My two cents this evening!
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:48 pm
by Brent
bubba hotep wrote:Euro control run has a monster snow storm for N. Texas in the long range.
When
Found it next Wednesday into Thursday
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:12 am
by Brent
0z Euro turning pretty cold at the end of the run just before the timeframe above
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:25 am
by northjaxpro
Ntxw wrote:This is my interpretation of the models. Probably not wise to get hung up on 240 hours+. The players are still the same, cold air aloft, a Greenland block, Northeast Canada block, and a decent Pacific. We are looking for storms now on the guidance because ensembles for the past week have shown lower than average 500mb heights in the southern plains and southeast US. This is the birthplace for systems that crash into the west coast. They go the path of least resistance. At first you're going to see models try to send storms into the block, it's not likely to happen. It's bad physics. In years with -AO/-NAO blocks storms like to travel the more southern path into the lower heights through the southeast and out into the mid-Atlantic and open Atlantic, not into the Lakes. But the guidance loves to do that before the blocks are in play.
https://images2.imgbox.com/1b/40/GewEDchq_o.jpg We have been watching for the storms to show after Thanksgiving and they are slowly but surely. The first will likely carve a deep trough and systems that follow it will continue to go south. While the surface often shows warmer than one would think (on models) this is the kind of year you don't really look at that until about 3 days out. If it's colder aloft (850mb temps often can tell you in times like this) the nature of how deep the cold air is for these systems they will find surface or make it. My two cents this evening!
That is a very good analysis Ntxw!! I have completely enjoyed your discussions of the winter-time synoptic patterns through the years on the Texas threads.
I agree with you generally that the cold and storms are eventually coming for the Southern Plains. Gulf Coast, portions of the Southeast U.S. and the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. We just saw the precurser event a couple of days ago with the nor'easter. I think we will have a series of these this upcoming winter season.
The Greenland blocking ridge and ridging over Northeast Canada looks stout in long range model runs, enforcing a pending -NAO, combined with El Nino, in all good probability assures southerly storm tracks.
It is looking like an potential winter bonanza for cold weather enthusiasts, especially across the Eastern CONUS. We will find out soon.
.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:23 am
by bubba hotep
00z GFS is ugly! 0.00" of rain at DFW after this morning and temps near 80 to start December.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:27 am
by gpsnowman
bubba hotep wrote:00z GFS is ugly! 0.00" of rain at DFW after this morning and temps near 80 to start December.
Man I hope this is a throw away run. Nothing worse than watching dry leaves blow northward on a hot December day. Yuck.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:33 am
by Ntxw
Despite hitting 70s the past two days DFW is still -7F! If there is a cool shot the last week of the month we might give 2014 a run for the money.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:34 am
by Ntxw
gpsnowman wrote:bubba hotep wrote:00z GFS is ugly! 0.00" of rain at DFW after this morning and temps near 80 to start December.
Man I hope this is a throw away run. Nothing worse than watching dry leaves blow northward on a hot December day. Yuck.
384 hours
. Plus -SOI tank. You can toss the dry run
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:37 am
by srainhoutx
But that 00Z ECMWF EPS at 192 tho...
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 10:14 am
by DonWrk
Talk about hitting maybe the best 3 day stretch of the entire month for the wedding festivities. Thursday family came in, Friday was rehearsal, and Saturday the wedding. You could not have asked for more perfect weather. About 30 minutes after it was over the North wind was on it's way and howling. Pretty lucky.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 10:54 am
by gboudx
DonWrk wrote:Talk about hitting maybe the best 3 day stretch of the entire month for the wedding festivities. Thursday family came in, Friday was rehearsal, and Saturday the wedding. You could not have asked for more perfect weather. About 30 minutes after it was over the North wind was on it's way and howling. Pretty lucky.
Congrats to you and your family.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:01 am
by BrokenGlass
gpsnowman wrote:bubba hotep wrote:00z GFS is ugly! 0.00" of rain at DFW after this morning and temps near 80 to start December.
Man I hope this is a throw away run. Nothing worse than watching dry leaves blow northward on a hot December day. Yuck.
In Texas in winter, big cold usually follows big heat.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro