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Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 12:13 pm
by dpep4
An error occurred while processing your request.
Reference #102.6460dc17.1653066651.aa8a26d
Just ridiculous that the NWS forecast pages are broken so often. Can't find a way to get my local forecast, 3rd time this week. If I have to keep going to private sites for basic like a forecast, might as well privatize the whole incompetent agency.
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 12:20 pm
by HockeyTx82
dpep4 wrote:An error occurred while processing your request.
Reference #102.6460dc17.1653066651.aa8a26d
Just ridiculous that the NWS forecast pages are broken so often. Can't find a way to get my local forecast, 3rd time this week. If I have to keep going to private sites for basic like a forecast, might as well privatize the whole incompetent agency.
Forecasters are good, being in IT I don't want to speak bad about them but the blame for that is on them.
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 12:34 pm
by Ntxw
Cold front is surging through Wichita Falls. Curious the wetter models associated with it has storms firing quickly along the line while the dry ones don't. Currently it's mostly a dry passage up there.
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 1:06 pm
by HockeyTx82
Ntxw wrote:Cold front is surging through Wichita Falls. Curious the wetter models associated with it has storms firing quickly along the line while the dry ones don't. Currently it's mostly a dry passage up there.
So ahead of schedule?
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 1:15 pm
by gpsnowman
HockeyTx82 wrote:Ntxw wrote:Cold front is surging through Wichita Falls. Curious the wetter models associated with it has storms firing quickly along the line while the dry ones don't. Currently it's mostly a dry passage up there.
So ahead of schedule?
That's what I was thinking. I thought the main push of cooler air was tomorrow afternoon which is why low 90s are forecasted for Saturday. Not complaining, earlier the better.
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 1:15 pm
by rwfromkansas
Might that mean DFW gets little rain but places east get it again? HRRR doesn't even generate any storms looking at QPF.
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 1:16 pm
by Iceresistance
dpep4 wrote:An error occurred while processing your request.
Reference #102.6460dc17.1653066651.aa8a26d
Just ridiculous that the NWS forecast pages are broken so often. Can't find a way to get my local forecast, 3rd time this week. If I have to keep going to private sites for basic like a forecast, might as well privatize the whole incompetent agency.
The errors sometimes happens to me, it could be they they are trying to update the forecasts and this happens.
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 1:17 pm
by captainbarbossa19
And now it's trending wetter for y'all!!
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 1:22 pm
by Ntxw
gpsnowman wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:Ntxw wrote:Cold front is surging through Wichita Falls. Curious the wetter models associated with it has storms firing quickly along the line while the dry ones don't. Currently it's mostly a dry passage up there.
So ahead of schedule?
That's what I was thinking. I thought the main push of cooler air was tomorrow afternoon which is why low 90s are forecasted for Saturday. Not complaining, earlier the better.
A little bit, dependent on precipitation. It's not all THAT much colder behind it but a wind shift and a touch cooler, could still reach 90s if dry passage. But if it rains, then it will be 70s. The stronger push of cool air is tomorrow.
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 1:24 pm
by Iceresistance
captainbarbossa19 wrote:And now it's trending wetter for y'all!!
So is the WPC! They’re calling for 3-5 inches of rain for DFW and 2-3 for my area!
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 1:26 pm
by HockeyTx82
Ntxw wrote:gpsnowman wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:
So ahead of schedule?
That's what I was thinking. I thought the main push of cooler air was tomorrow afternoon which is why low 90s are forecasted for Saturday. Not complaining, earlier the better.
A little bit, dependent on precipitation. It's not all THAT much colder behind it but a wind shift and a touch cooler, could still reach 90s if dry passage. But if it rains, then it will be 70s. The stronger push of cool air is tomorrow.
I think it's showing up on NWS radar. Thin line just north and west on Denton..... maybe?
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 1:47 pm
by captainbarbossa19
If something gets going along the line soon, it could be really nasty. CAPE is very high.
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 2:13 pm
by South Texas Storms
captainbarbossa19 wrote:And now it's trending wetter for y'all!!
Yep, 12z Euro trended slower with the trough next week which means a longer period of enhanced rain chances. I think we'll likely see several waves of showers and thunderstorms track eastward across the state Monday through Wednesday of next week. That is in addition to the scattered showers and thunderstorms that should develop along the cold front this weekend. Hopefully all of us can get some much needed rainfall over the next week! Bring it on!
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 2:19 pm
by Ntxw
captainbarbossa19 wrote:If something gets going along the line soon, it could be really nasty. CAPE is very high.
Looks like a summer high CAPE situation from the spc maps. Tornado/hail conditions and supercells are low, not much like a spring air mass despite 4-5k j/kg. High straight-line winds and small hail but right now the radar is dry. HRRR is verifying better in real time than the 3km NAM.
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 2:28 pm
by rwfromkansas
It seems to me that line is not the front after all checking out other surface analysis maps. Maybe just some little boundary.
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 2:32 pm
by Ntxw
rwfromkansas wrote:It seems to me that line is not the front after all checking out other surface analysis maps. Maybe just some little boundary.
It's the front, just heavily moderating daytime heating and hot ahead of it. Observations are northerly component behind it. The stronger cool push will come with height rises tomorrow. Today the front needed the help from rain but so far not working out.
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 3:13 pm
by bubba hotep
18z 3K NAM looks pretty good with front placement. It doesnt fire storms for another hour or two.
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 3:59 pm
by HockeyTx82
bubba hotep wrote:18z 3K NAM looks pretty good with front placement. It doesnt fire storms for another hour or two.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0845.html
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 4:21 pm
by cheezyWXguy
Storms starting to fire near abilene
Edit: well, first attempt anyway
Re: Texas Spring 2022
Posted: Fri May 20, 2022 5:30 pm
by bubba hotep
If the 18z 3k NAM is going to verify then we will need to see pretty rapid storm development over the next 30-45 min.
