Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Is moving more westward.

[Gustywind]

Is moving more westward.

?

[Gustywind]

Look at that blob? Mary poppins seems to definitely starting...

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 311520
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 AM AST MON AUG 31 2009

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION AND REACH HISPANIOLA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS
EFFECTS WILL AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME AS SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS
OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER THERE IS NO
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 311801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 15N52W. MAXIMUM VALUES OF LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
BASED ON CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE AND TPW IMAGERY. THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED AND MAINTAINED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 17N THAT IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE NW OF THE LOW
CENTER. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 49W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 54W-58W AND FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 48W-52W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WNW
NEAR 12 KT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Gustywind]

Let's continue to follow closely 94L...especially the Leewards, Northern Leewards and all of the carib islands as usual.



Latest on 94L:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
31/1745 UTC 15.5N 53.6W T1.5/1.5 94L
31/1145 UTC 15.2N 51.5W T1.5/1.5 94L
31/0615 UTC 14.1N 49.5W T1.0/1.5 94L

[msbee]

They still didn't call this thing a TD or TS?
Wow!

[cycloneye]

I am amazed this has not been classified as a TD,but they say there is not a well defined circulation.

Barbara,the web cam at the beach looking to the cruise ships that dock there is not working.

[msbee]

Luis
it's working for me. maybe it's a bad link?

http://www.thevillasongreatbay.com/netcam.jpg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Disturbance Statement from NWS San Juan

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST MON AUG 31 2009

...ADVANCING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE U.S VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR RESIDENTS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
IN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS BEING
ACTIVELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AT THE PRESENT TIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER
THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A DEPRESSION
OR NAMED STORM...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS /ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO/...AND ROUGH SEAS. THEREFORE...IT IS
IMPERATIVE THAT INTERESTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN ITS
POSITION AND INTENSITY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A NAMED
STORM...IF THIS DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLASH FLOODING...DO NOT TRY
TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS IN YOUR VEHICLE.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET.

MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AS CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK.

NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-
011900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.HU.S.0002.090831T1854Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
254 PM AST MON AUG 31 2009

...RAIN AND SEAS MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...

...NEW INFORMATION...
ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A NAMED
STORM...IF THIS DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLASH FLOODING...DO NOT TRY
TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS IN YOUR VEHICLE.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET.

MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AS CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK.

NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.

&&

...INLAND FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE ONE OF THE MAIN THREATS AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS
DISTURBANCE BECOMES A NAMED SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
CAUSING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO PEAK BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.

...MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK...PEAKING AT 7 TO
8 FEET BY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. MARINERS ARE
URGED TO HEED CAUTION AND ADVISORIES AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
$$

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 0statement

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 15N54W...ABOUT 500 MILES E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE AREA COINCIDES WITH BROAD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MAXIMUM VALUES OF LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY ARE ALSO OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW BASED ON
CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 50W-53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
51W-54W...FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 48W-53W...AND FROM 13N-15N
BETWEEN 58W-59W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WNW NEAR 15 KT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[expat2carib]

A picture is worth more than a thousand words. I'm poisoned by information.. yes....no....yes...no

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010101
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
901 PM AST MON AUG 31 2009

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 54 WEST THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO GIVE A HIGH CHANCE
OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY...WITH A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY DRY DAYS AHEAD
OF THIS AREA OF WEATHER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED
FORECAST THIS EVENING AS IT REMAINS IN LINE WITH LATEST THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL RAISE OR
ELIMINATE CEILINGS SUCH THAT ALL STATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WIND SHIFT FROM ESE TO ENE WILL CAUSE
CONVECTION TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE ISLAND AFT
01/18Z. EXPECT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ BTWN 01/17Z AND
01/22Z...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

[Gustywind]

From a correspondant of the weather site stormcarib.com
31 Aug 2009 23:51:28 -0000 - Curious system


Good evening,

Just a quick post to mention Invest 94L is something of a Mother Nature anomaly having had all the ingredients to become a monster (and could still) but just never got it's act together. If the increased wind shear does not keep it battened down, then it still has the chance to reach hurricane status in a few days. Right now, it looks like a molting octopus with it's western side being beaten down by the increase in wind shear. Still, at a low latitude, 14.6 N as of 5 pm, it's still a danger to the northern Caribbean Islands and the Bahama's. When it gets it's act together, it will not be pretty. At the moment, it is still playing hide and seek.

More tomorrow morning.

Dave

[expat2carib]

Moderate showers and some thunder here on Dominica
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 010535
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT IT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[abajan]

Compliments of 94L, Grantley Adams Airport is reporting winds out of the north at 5 mph but it's practically dead calm here. Looks like a hot and thundery day ahead!