STORM2K

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 5:39 pm**

bubba hotep wrote:If the 18z 3k NAM is going to verify then we will need to see pretty rapid storm development over the next 30-45 min.

Yeah the 18z 3km NAM looks way too overzealous with convective development along the front tonight in north TX. Better storm chances arrive tomorrow, but it may largely be south and east of DFW.

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 5:46 pm**

Front is well defined on sat with towers along it and one storm that has been pulsing. There also appears to be an area of subtle convergence out ahead of it with a nice cloud street within it, I would watch for storms to go off as the front approaches that dashed green line.

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 6:36 pm**

Looks like first legit cell is going up out in Shackelford County and an attempt going up in Clay County.

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 7:45 pm**

Things are blooming a little slow but better late than never. Fingers crossed we get an inch by morning! Frontal boundary looks like it wants to fill in more now.

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 7:45 pm**

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-central and Eastern Oklahoma
North Texas

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 740 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
this evening within an unstable environment near a surface boundary
that extends southwest/northeast across the region. Large hail is
expected to be the primary hazard, although localized wind damage
could occur.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest
of Mineral Wells TX to 45 miles east northeast of Muskogee OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 7:50 pm**

bubba hotep wrote:https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0253_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-central and Eastern Oklahoma
North Texas

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 740 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
this evening within an unstable environment near a surface boundary
that extends southwest/northeast across the region. Large hail is
expected to be the primary hazard, although localized wind damage
could occur.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest
of Mineral Wells TX to 45 miles east northeast of Muskogee OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

Yep! I’m under the watch, I’m more optimistic compared to the previous one, but not very much. I still expect storms to miss me to the south and east.

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 8:13 pm**

Those storms basically fell apart it appears?

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 8:41 pm**

You would think with it snowing in Denver and this front pressing down in May - and May 20th mind you - if I were to write that up on a slip of paper with no charts and asked “what’s the forecast?” - almost any met would way “well there would probably be a massive severe weather outbreak and a squall line barreling through Texas”

And yet we have crumbs.

At least for now. Looks like a wet week ahead though. We need the rain.

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 8:45 pm**

jasons2k wrote:You would think with it snowing in Denver and this front pressing down in May - and May 20th mind you - if I were to write that up on a slip of paper with no charts and asked “what’s the forecast?” - almost any met would way “well there would probably be a massive severe weather outbreak and a squall line barreling through Texas”

And yet we have crumbs.

At least for now. Looks like a wet week ahead though. We need the rain.

We've had a lot of capping issues this season. The air coming out of the southwest/Mexico is extra warm and dry. Doesn't make or break an individual event but background state.

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 9:54 pm**

Pretty lame..

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 10:28 pm**

Starting to doubt DFW sees much rain this weekend. Might have to wait closer to midweek for the shortwave but I'd bet we bust on the low side.

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 10:59 pm**

jasons2k wrote:Pretty lame..

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220521/ce6116528c709ca67dc76c899180d190.jpg

Watch for Texas looks canceled, Oklahoma only now.....

Posted: **Fri May 20, 2022 11:38 pm**

Ugh. I hope things don’t fall apart for next week.

Posted: **Sat May 21, 2022 8:45 am**

Wish the cold front would get here..... just to the north and west of me looking at temps.

Posted: **Sat May 21, 2022 9:49 am**

57 degrees here :double:

probably gonna struggle to see 60 this afternoon

Posted: **Sat May 21, 2022 9:56 am**

Brent wrote:57 degrees here

Boo!!!

Posted: **Sat May 21, 2022 9:59 am**

Some storms popping across DFW out ahead of the front. Maybe a sign of a bit more favorable environment in place for storms today along the front? However, most hi-res guidance shows storms not firing along the front until later today once the front has cleared DFW.

Posted: **Sat May 21, 2022 11:09 am**

Cold front is through Decatur :cold:

Posted: **Sat May 21, 2022 11:27 am**

Currently 64 at almost noon with a strong cool N wind.
Meanwhile at my parents place in CO..

Posted: **Sat May 21, 2022 11:52 am**

bubba hotep wrote:Cold front is through Decatur

It's crazy that 30ish minutes from me and 15 degrees cooler.

Outside just waiting now.

STORM2K

Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022

Re: Texas Spring 2022