Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Tropical Disturbance Statement

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2009

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COULD
AFFECT THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR RESIDENTS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
IN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 350 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR NAMED STORM IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AT THE PRESENT TIME...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
350 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...BUT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THE SYSTEM
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A DEPRESSION
OR NAMED STORM...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS THAT COULD TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING...LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...AND ROUGH SEAS. THEREFORE...IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT
INTERESTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN ITS POSITION AND
INTENSITY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A NAMED
STORM...IF THIS DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IF YOU ARE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD
FIND OUT WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF
FLOODING.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET.

MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AS CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK.

NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-
020930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.HU.S.0002.090901T0924Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
524 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2009

...RAIN AND SEAS MAY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...

...NEW INFORMATION...
ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A NAMED
STORM...IF THIS DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IF YOU ARE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD
FIND OUT WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF
FLOODING.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET.

MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AS CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK.

NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.

&&

...INLAND FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT
THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMES A NAMED SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

...MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MID WEEK...PEAKING AT 7 TO 8 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO HEED CAUTION AND ADVISORIES AS THIS
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.

$$
ROSA/BERMUDEZ

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 010916
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2009

SKIES REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS
MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...AFFECTED THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF SAINT JOHN...WHILE REST OF THE AREA STAYED RAIN FREE.
WINDS WERE EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WELL EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS NOW FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT SHOWS SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR EVEN A NAMED STORM.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME FOR THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT ELSEWHERE SEAS
ARE 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS ARE 17 KNOTS OR LESS. MARINE CONDITIONS
TO BEGIN DETERIORATING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONTINUING
THOUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND ANEGADA
PASSAGE WATERS.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 010549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW ROUGHLY
CENTERED NEAR 14N56W OR ABOUT 305 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT NOT A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N52W
THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO 10N58W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 51W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 50W-56W AND
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 12N54W TO 14N52W. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW NEAR 8 KT. INTERESTS IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY AND MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW. BROAD AREA LOW PRES TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT COULD BECOME THE FIFTH NAMED STORM OF
THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON AND MAY IMPACT THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. INTERESTS IN PR/USVI
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOR TODAY IS QUITE SIMPLE. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE. THIS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS. SHOWERS
IF ANY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF PR DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS.

FCST FOR THU-FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION
OF BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH AT THIS TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
CENTER FIXES DONE AT 06Z BY TAFB AND SAB AGENCIES WERE
AT 16.3N 55.6W AND 16.4N 55.9W RESPECTIVELY. COORDINATED WITH
BOTH ANALYSTS ON THE PHONE THIS MORNING AND BOTH INDICATED A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE FIXES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE CENTERS. A 0406Z TMI MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION BUT WITH NO
CLOSED CIRCULATION YET. 06Z EARLY CYCLE NHC MODELS SHOW TRACKS
RANGING FROM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF PR TO AS FAR NORTH AS 20N
IN THE 72 TO 96 HR TIME FRAME OR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MODELS TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK FCST UNTIL
AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HRS. INTERESTS IN PR/USVI ARE REMINDED
THAT TRACK FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE IN THE ORDER OF 167 TO 230
NAUTICAL MILES IN THE 72 TO 96 HR TIME FRAME. THE FIRST HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INTERCEPT THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON AT 2PM AND WILL GIVE A BETTER PICTURE OF THE STRUCTURE
OF THE STORM...ITS EXACT LOCATION AND WIND FIELD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM HPC`S INTERNATIONAL
DESK YESTERDAY...THE FLOW DOMINATING THE ATLC TO THE NORTH OF 20N
AND TO THE EAST OF 70W IS CHARACTERIZED BY NUMEROUS TUTT LOWS WITH
CELLS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING MIGRATORY AND OF SHORT
DURATION RESULTING IN VERY ILL DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. I WOULD
EXPECT THE TRACK FCST WITH THIS STORM TO BE EXTREMELY CHALLENGING
WITH LOTS OF ERRATIC MOVEMENTS AND WOBBLES WITH A MUCH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY.

THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE STORM IS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TON OF RAINFALL ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM MOVING AT AVERAGE
OF SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH THE GFDL INDICATING SPEEDS AS SLOW AS 4 KT AT TIMES. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN THU
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS STILL BEYOND 48 HRS IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE FRESHEN LATER THIS MORNING TO UPDATE
STORM POSITION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

[Gustywind]

Looks like a TD with my untrained eyes ...looking very good

[Gustywind]

Hummm...find the error?
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/0615 UTC 16.4N 55.9W T2.0/2.0 94L
31/2345 UTC 16.7N 54.5W T2.0/2.0 94L

[Gustywind]

Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 1, 2009 5:34 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
ATLANTIC

An area of low pressure about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has seen another flare up of shower and thunderstorm activity during the early morning hours this morning, and a tropical depression or tropical storm may form at any time. Upper level conditions remain favorable for development. The Hurricane Hunters are set to investigate this system later today.
The low is moving to the west-northwest near 15 miles per hour. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
Elsewhere it is quiet across the Atlantic Basin.

[Gustywind]

Looks like some decent convection is popping right now...in the sw quadrant of 94L, even maybe a little band trying to form?!

[Gustywind]

Hearing the radio right now, one of our Pro Met of Meteo-France is saying that it's matter of hours to see TD 5... During the day we should see TD 5 given this forecaster of Meteo-France Guadeloupe, he was pretty affirmative about the arrival of TD 5! He expected very bad weather conditions on the Northern Leewards Islands tommorow night.
Let's wait and see what could happens during the next couple of hours...

[msbee]

It sure looks like a TD to me.

Her is the morning discussion from crownweather.com

Issued: Tuesday, September 1, 2009 555 am EDT

For the Tropical Weather Discussion with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325.

Discussion
Invest 94L Located 350 Miles East Of The Leeward Islands:

It's been a very interesting 24 hours monitoring Invest 94L, which in my eyes, is at least a tropical depression, if not a tropical storm. Anyways, 94L has put on a impressive blowup of convection over the past 12 hours or so and it shows no signs of slowing down. I suspect when reconnaissance aircraft get in there today they will find a developing tropical depression or tropical storm. 94L is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 10 mph. Satellite imagery and an analysis of the wind shear around this system show some interesting things this morning.

Satellite imagery showed two things: One is that there is some decent inflow developing and Two is that the tops of the thunderstorms around the system are fanning out which means that shear is decreasing around 94L. Also, there appears to be a rather quick weakening of the trough of low pressure located near 25 North Latitude, 70 West Longitude, which looks like caused the shear axis to pull back to the northwest, therefore, this put 94L in a divergent (ie. favorable) environment. So, if this trend continues, we may see fairly rapid intensification from 94L; although a quick analysis showed that shear may be increasing on the western side of the system and this could ultimately put a damper on the deep convection we are currently seeing.

Now, what does the future hold for Invest 94L? Well, I think it will be upgraded to depression or perhaps even tropical storm status today, especially when recon aircraft get in there. I would be surprised if Hurricane Hunter aircraft cannot close off a center. Looking at the model guidance for the next several days, it appears that the more simple models like the BAMS and LBAR models are doing a better job than the dynamical consensus models. The model performance statistics can be viewed HERE. So, I think 94L will track on a general west-northwest track over the next several days and pass about 75 to 80 miles north of the Virgin Islands on Thursday morning. After that, a continued course to the west-northwest seems likely and I think that in 5 days (Sunday morning), Invest 94L/Erika will be located near 20.8 North Latitude, 70.0 West Longitude. All of the available hurricane intensity models forecast gradual strengthening over the next few days, however, if 94L tracks quicker than what the shear zone is backing to the west and northwest, it would find itself in a very hostile environment. The global models like the European and NOGAPS models forecast intensification over the next several days and it appears they forecast that 94L will move in tandem with the shear zone and remain in a favorable environment. So, I am going with the consensus and am going to forecast steady strengthening over the next several days and this system could be a hurricane by the end of the week.

The long range future, beyond Sunday, for 94L/Erika is a tough call and there are a lot of unknowns, so I don't want to make a hedge beyond Sunday. I will note though that the European model has forecasted a turn northward around 70 West Longitude and an eventual turn out to sea for the second run in a row. It is interesting to note that much like with Bill that the UKMET model does not agree with the European model and forecasts that it will be in the southeast Bahamas in 6 days. So, I wonder if the European model will trend westward with time or will the UKMET model trend towards the European model. Now, since I am forecasting a position that is south and west of the European model, I will be bold and forecast that the European model will trend westward with time and potentially curve to the north along the 75 West Longitude line early next week.

In the more immediate term, all interests in the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should closely monitor the progress of this system. Do not be surprised to see Watches and maybe even Warnings be issued for parts of these areas later today or tonight.

The effects from this storm will be felt in the Leeward Islands on Wednesday into Wednesday night, the Virgin Islands from late Wednesday through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning and possibly Puerto Rico from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night and into early Friday morning. So, if you are in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, please be aware that at the very least tropical storm force winds will be affecting you within the next 30 to 60 hours from east to west. Whether this system affects the Bahamas, the southeastern United States or even areas further up the US East Coast is still a huge unknown, however, there is plenty of time to watch this system and see what it does or even does not do.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT Wednesday.

[Gustywind]

It sure looks like a TD to me.

Her is the morning discussion from crownweather.com

Issued: Tuesday, September 1, 2009 555 am EDT

For the Tropical Weather Discussion with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325.

Discussion
Invest 94L Located 350 Miles East Of The Leeward Islands:

It's been a very interesting 24 hours monitoring Invest 94L, which in my eyes, is at least a tropical depression, if not a tropical storm. Anyways, 94L has put on a impressive blowup of convection over the past 12 hours or so and it shows no signs of slowing down. I suspect when reconnaissance aircraft get in there today they will find a developing tropical depression or tropical storm. 94L is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 10 mph. Satellite imagery and an analysis of the wind shear around this system show some interesting things this morning.

Satellite imagery showed two things: One is that there is some decent inflow developing and Two is that the tops of the thunderstorms around the system are fanning out which means that shear is decreasing around 94L. Also, there appears to be a rather quick weakening of the trough of low pressure located near 25 North Latitude, 70 West Longitude, which looks like caused the shear axis to pull back to the northwest, therefore, this put 94L in a divergent (ie. favorable) environment. So, if this trend continues, we may see fairly rapid intensification from 94L; although a quick analysis showed that shear may be increasing on the western side of the system and this could ultimately put a damper on the deep convection we are currently seeing.

Now, what does the future hold for Invest 94L? Well, I think it will be upgraded to depression or perhaps even tropical storm status today, especially when recon aircraft get in there. I would be surprised if Hurricane Hunter aircraft cannot close off a center. Looking at the model guidance for the next several days, it appears that the more simple models like the BAMS and LBAR models are doing a better job than the dynamical consensus models. The model performance statistics can be viewed HERE. So, I think 94L will track on a general west-northwest track over the next several days and pass about 75 to 80 miles north of the Virgin Islands on Thursday morning. After that, a continued course to the west-northwest seems likely and I think that in 5 days (Sunday morning), Invest 94L/Erika will be located near 20.8 North Latitude, 70.0 West Longitude. All of the available hurricane intensity models forecast gradual strengthening over the next few days, however, if 94L tracks quicker than what the shear zone is backing to the west and northwest, it would find itself in a very hostile environment. The global models like the European and NOGAPS models forecast intensification over the next several days and it appears they forecast that 94L will move in tandem with the shear zone and remain in a favorable environment. So, I am going with the consensus and am going to forecast steady strengthening over the next several days and this system could be a hurricane by the end of the week.

The long range future, beyond Sunday, for 94L/Erika is a tough call and there are a lot of unknowns, so I don't want to make a hedge beyond Sunday. I will note though that the European model has forecasted a turn northward around 70 West Longitude and an eventual turn out to sea for the second run in a row. It is interesting to note that much like with Bill that the UKMET model does not agree with the European model and forecasts that it will be in the southeast Bahamas in 6 days. So, I wonder if the European model will trend westward with time or will the UKMET model trend towards the European model. Now, since I am forecasting a position that is south and west of the European model, I will be bold and forecast that the European model will trend westward with time and potentially curve to the north along the 75 West Longitude line early next week.

In the more immediate term, all interests in the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should closely monitor the progress of this system. Do not be surprised to see Watches and maybe even Warnings be issued for parts of these areas later today or tonight.

The effects from this storm will be felt in the Leeward Islands on Wednesday into Wednesday night, the Virgin Islands from late Wednesday through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning and possibly Puerto Rico from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night and into early Friday morning. So, if you are in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, please be aware that at the very least tropical storm force winds will be affecting you within the next 30 to 60 hours from east to west. Whether this system affects the Bahamas, the southeastern United States or even areas further up the US East Coast is still a huge unknown, however, there is plenty of time to watch this system and see what it does or even does not do.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT Wednesday.

Tkanks Barbara very informative discussion. We should be very vigilant during especially the next 24-48H!

[Gustywind]

Msbee be vigilant: an yellow alert has been issued by Meteo-France at 11 AM.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_in.pdf

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 011530
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1130 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2009

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVER LAND. WINDS WERE MAINLY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 300 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS NOW FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT SHOWS SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR EVEN A NAMED STORM.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME FOR THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT ELSEWHERE SEAS
ARE 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS ARE 17 KNOTS OR LESS. MARINE CONDITIONS
TO BEGIN DETERIORATING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONTINUING
THOUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND ANEGADA
PASSAGE WATERS.

$$

[abajan]

What a relief! We've started getting some much welcomed showers to release the unbelievable stranglehold of heat experienced here over the past few days, especially this morning. Let it pour!

[caribsue]

What a relief! We've started getting some much welcomed showers to release the unbelievable stranglehold of heat experienced here over the past few days, especially this morning. Let it pour!

Absolutely abajan, a very welcome change just watching the next shower coming in off the sea now from R/Ridge

[abajan]

What a relief! We've started getting some much welcomed showers to release the unbelievable stranglehold of heat experienced here over the past few days, especially this morning. Let it pour!

Absolutely abajan, a very welcome change just watching the next shower coming in off the sea now from R/Ridge

Hey, wait a minute... I'm watching the same shower from the same ridge. You must be awfully close to me!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 260
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR...MORE
LIKELY...A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE... GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 16N57W OR ABOUT 225 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO 11N63W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 51W-57W. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW NEAR 8 KT.
INTERESTS IN THE NRNLEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

94L...approaching the Leewards Islands at Guadeloupe's lattitude given the latest TWD (broad low pressure 16N 57W).

[Gustywind]

Huge blob...is an euphemisma!