National Weather Service San Juan PR
332 PM AST Thu Jun 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Dry slot over the local area will be short lived,
moisture will increase tonight and persist through the weekend.
Upper trough will remain over the area through Friday, weakening
this weekend. Strong surface high pressure will keep east to east
southeast winds for the next several days. Tropical wave to pass
south of the local area on Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...
Much drier air today than what we have had the past few days.
This is due to a dry slot passing through the local area, which
was expected. However, the moisture will return late tonight and
so will the activity of showers over the area. The upper trough is
still over the local area which will help in the development of
thunderstorms over the waters and portions of the USVI and eastern
PR overnight and on Friday. The upper trough is expected to
weaken this weekend but the available moisture will remain near or
above normal...which will help in the development of locally
induced showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico in the
afternoons this weekend and maybe into Monday as well. The
tropical wave that is expected to reach the local area should
remain mainly to our south but there may be an even deeper
increase in moisture.
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...From Previous discussion...
As a tropical wave moves across the eastern Caribbean but mainly
south of the area on Sunday; precipitable water is expected to
increase with values near or above the normal range which is 1.75
inches. However, moisture is expected to quickly erode as soon as
late Monday as a mid to upper level ridge builds across the forecast
area and hold much of the next week. At lower levels, a surface high
pressure across the central Atlantic will yield an east southeast
wind flow Sunday through at least Thursday.
As a result, if the forecast holds, the best chance for shower and
thunder activity is Sunday and Monday with passing showers across
the USVI and E PR during the morning hours followed by showers and
thunderstorms developing across west sections of Puerto Rico in the
afternoon. A fair weather pattern with warm to hot temperatures and
hazy skies is expected Tuesday and onwards.
&&
.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions can be expected across most TAF sites through
the forecast period. Brief periods of MVFR conditions with mountain
obscurations can be expected across TJMZ through 01/22Z. Low level
winds will continue mainly east at 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...Seas 3 to 5 feet and winds 15-20 knots are expected to
prevail across the local waters. The Atlantic waters could observe
seas up to 6 feet. Small craft operators should exercise caution
across the Atlantic waters due to seas possible of up to 6 feet
and winds up to 20 knots. There is moderate risk of rip currents
across most of the beaches around Puerto Rico and the USVI,
increasing to high risk tomorrow night across the north facing
beaches of Puerto Rico.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 88 / 40 40 20 30
STT 79 86 79 86 / 30 30 20 20