Texas Spring-2015

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281100
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VARIABLE SKY CONDITIONS DOMINATE ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS PERSIST OVER THE SW ZONES WITH DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS AT
KCXO/KUTS. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND CIGS WILL
ERODE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
16Z. PW VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1.5-1.7 INCHES THIS AFTN SO CAN`T
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 08Z-10Z BUT MODELS PERFORMING KINDA POOR AS OF LATE SO NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MUCH QUIETER MORNING IS UNDERWAY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING... WITH DRY CONDITIONS... LIGHT S/SE WINDS... AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S AS OF 3 AM CDT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
DOES SHOW A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOCATED ALONG A DUMONT...TX TO
HOBART...OK LINE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THIS COMPLEX GIVEN THE REGION/S PRESENT
SENSITIVITY TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BUT WITH INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A WARMING TREND IN CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES... THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY... 00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN
UPPER RIDGE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL HELP LIMIT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAP GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS RIDGE AND
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO RISE BACK
TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON... CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PRESENTLY ROTATING ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND AS THIS
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE STATE LATE TONIGHT... A SPLIT JET/
DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH LIFT OVERSPREADING THE REGION... WITH TWO
POSSIBLE ROUNDS FOR THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. COULD SEE
NORTHWEST TEXAS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER MCS
THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE FAR ENOUGH E/SE TO CLIP WESTERN/
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ENHANCED LIFT DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH /AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR/... BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN UNSATURATED AND
SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN /HIGH 1000-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS/ REMAIN DISPLACED FROM EACH
OTHER IN LOCATION. WHILE AN ISOLATED EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORM CAN/T BE RULED OUT ON FRIDAY... NOT CONFIDENT IN A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THE MOMENT. GIVEN HOW SATURATED
THE GROUND IS... HOWEVER... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
POTENTIAL FLOODING THREATS ON FRIDAY.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... SENDING A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL REALLY BE MORE OF A WIND
SHIFT... WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY /HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING... STALLING NORTH OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK... THE FORECAST BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CUTS OFF ANOTHER PASSING
DISTURBANCE INTO A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL DETERMINE RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK... WITH A MORE EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW PLACING
THE REGION IN A MORE SUBSIDENT AND DRIER PATTERN. STILL SEVERAL
DAYS TO REFINE THIS... BUT ONLY HIGHLIGHTING 10-20 POPS IN THE
EXTENDED FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE EXTENDED.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SE NEW
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRI
NIGHT SO STRONGER NOCTURNAL WINDS EXPECTED WITH A SCEC POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SE TX ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS BUT THE WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS NEXT MON/TUES.
43

[Ntxw]

Ntxw-

What impact do you think Andres will have on Texas? It looks like it won't make landfall, but I know these Pacific storms can still send a ton of rain our way without making landfall.

ULL crossing this weekend may have more juice to it if there is a connection with Andres' mid and high level moisture, not that there isn't plenty already. It could mean higher rain totals than currently progged. It's difficult to forecast with tropical systems as they don't play by the general rules as to how they influence.

[Ntxw]

Loop the HRRR. A lot of wide scale rain coming

HRRR

[TheProfessor]

If DFW gets a wide spread 1.5 inches, we will break our record for rainfall in May.

[Ntxw]

If DFW gets a wide spread 1.5 inches, we will break our record for rainfall in May.

We have until midnight Sunday. I think we will get it. The past few nights came close with 1-3" west, east, north, and south of DFW airport lol. The station is on the north side of the airport.

[Texas Snowman]

Texoma is rolling over the spillway at 643.80 this morning.

MCS rolled down the Red Rivet Valley all night long. Torrential downpour here in Denison at the moment.

I think the 1990 record flood level of 644.76 is going to be reached in the next 24-48 hours.

[Texas Snowman]

Today's rain total at the AC Weather Station (west of Sherman) is 1.08 inches, all in the last hour.

The total for May there is 16.90 inches. And counting.

I think 20 inches is within reach with rain in the forecast all the way through 5/31.

[Ntxw]

I was going through F6 data from FW (goes back to 2002) and noticed there has not been a May where DFW did not see 90 degrees in that span. We have not seen this year nor is it forecasted by Sunday.

[Rgv20]

Surprisingly we have not hit 100F for my are this year, highest temperature so far has been 96F! NWS 7 day forecast highest temperature is 93F

[Ntxw]

As of today, all of DFW's supplying reservoirs are 100% full. Bridgeport was the last standout as of last week but has since topped. I'd say watering restrictions will be lowered, but really do we need to? It rains every day or every other...

[Tireman4]

I was going through F6 data from FW (goes back to 2002) and noticed there has not been a May where DFW did not see 90 degrees in that span. We have not seen this year nor is it forecasted by Sunday.

In this twisty, turvy Spring, who knows what Summer may bring. I am thinking with all this rain, it has to help cool temperatures...I am thinking...

[Ntxw]

MCS starting get going with those clusters out in West Texas. It's going to fill in to the south into a solid line and basically intersect most of the state.

[lukem]

A rain gauge in Shallowater measured instantaneous rainfall rates of 6.6 inches per hour. Looks like they are already seeing some flooding in Lubbock County.

[TheProfessor]

CAPE values were close to 4000 on the 18z sounding at FWD, SPC says that there isn't a lot of vertical shear though, which should help suppress long track super cells and tornadoes, though they said a couple of tornadoes can't be ruled out.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

As of today, all of DFW's supplying reservoirs are 100% full. Bridgeport was the last standout as of last week but has since topped. I'd say watering restrictions will be lowered, but really do we need to? It rains every day or every other...

They have actually RELEASED water from Possum Kingdom in the past 24 hours. That alone is mind boggling given the state of that lake at the beginning of May.

[Ntxw]

CAPE values were close to 4000 on the 18z sounding at FWD, SPC says that there isn't a lot of vertical shear though, which should help suppress long track super cells and tornadoes, though they said a couple of tornadoes can't be ruled out.

Sounds like a lot of lightning and wind gusts tonight with the MCS

[TheProfessor]

Today will likely be the only chance for DFW airport to reach 90 in May, I'm not sure if it will get the 4 degree push, but if it doesn't reach 90, it doesn't look like 90 will be reached this month.

[TheProfessor]

Severe Thunderstorm watch issued.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 236 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC009-027-035-049-077-083-093-095-097-099-113-121-133-139-143-
193-217-221-237-251-281-307-309-333-337-363-367-411-425-429-439-
485-497-503-290400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0236.150528T2025Z-150529T0400Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BELL BOSQUE
BROWN CLAY COLEMAN
COMANCHE CONCHO COOKE
CORYELL DALLAS DENTON
EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH
HAMILTON HILL HOOD
JACK JOHNSON LAMPASAS
MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MILLS
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
SAN SABA SOMERVELL STEPHENS
TARRANT WICHITA WISE
YOUNG
$$

[DonWrk]

HRRR has continually showed the storm weakening rapidly as they approach I-35 from the west. What is causing this weakening?

[TheProfessor]

Only thing I can think of is loss of heat, the 18z soundings showed no cap.