Texas Spring-2015

[Ntxw]

Models only had "some rain" for tonight, it wasn't until last night and this morning did short guidance show us the big MCS. Right now they are showing "some rain" for Saturday evening.

[Brent]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
423 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE AREA FROM GARLAND TO ALLEN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 AM CDT

* AT 417 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
PRODUCED OVER 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THIS REGION. ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TROUGH SUNRISE. SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING NEAR DUCK CREEK IN
GARLAND. SPRING CREEK AND ROWLETT CREEK ARE ALSO LIKELY
OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE AREA FROM GARLAND TO
ALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING WITH NUMEROUS ROADS NOW
DANGEROUS AND IMPASSIBLE. MULTIPLE HIGH WATER RESCUES ARE
OCCURRING. TRAVEL HAS BECOME IMPOSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. IF YOU LIVE
IN A LOW LYING AREA NEAR A CREEK OR STREAM BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND SHOULD WATERS RISE TO YOUR LOCATION.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
DALLAS...PLANO...GARLAND...MESQUITE...RICHARDSON...ALLEN...
ROWLETT...WYLIE...SACHSE...MURPHY...FAIRVIEW...LUCAS...SUNNYVALE...
PARKER AND ST. PAUL.

[TheProfessor]

A lot of the metroplex has already received the upper limits of the Flash Flood Watch. If the MCS the next 2 days decide to do similar things, wherever it stalls, someone is going to have some real serious issues.

[DougNTexas]

As it is nearing Tyler it appears to be all but falling apart. Nothing like it was a few hours ago in D-FW.

[Texas Snowman]

It's official. Lake Texoma hit its new record level with the 6 am reading at Denison Dam.

Old record was 644.76 feet above sea level during the 1990 flood. New record as of this morning is 644.82 feet above sea level.

With plenty more inflow to come and more rain in the forecast, I wonder how high the new record level will go?

[Texas Snowman]

Wowza!!!

-----

@NWSFortWorth: There has been enough rain across #Texas during May to cover the entire state nearly 8 inches deep. That's over 35 trillion gallons! #txwx

[Ntxw]

2015 obliterated 1982 at DFW, not even close.



One more round of MCS tonight into tomorrow morning to go for the all time record, need about 1.57 inches. After that some better weather to dry out and clean up across the state next week. But that's what it will be, a break because the pattern is relaxing before another western trough comes through.

[wxman57]

I'm at 13.25" for the month (not counting this morning's rain). Many homes flooded around me last Monday night with the 8-11" of rain. Another stalled front across SE TX this weekend will be the focus of more heavy rain and flooding. I'm ready for a drought...

[Rgv20]

Had some heavy rain earlier this morning....Last nights HRRR did a great job at predicting a line of Rain moving into the valley early to mid morning. In April and May the HRRR has done a great job with the with the "Simulated Radar Forecast" for Texas.

[funster]

1.57 inches in a couple days seems easy after the way rain has been falling lately but in a typical month it is not so easy to get. We need to get that DFW record tonight. Otherwise we will have to start all over at zero on June 1st

[TeamPlayersBlue]

HRRR did well, the lines did split but the southern half was much weaker than anticipated. I'll take it. Only .05 here. Sunday is the focus now.

[Ralph's Weather]

Not sure we even managed a trace here in downtown Tyler this morning. We have now gone over 48 hours without rain for the first time since early May.

[aggiecutter]

A major north-south highway just closed down north of Texarkana. The highway 71-Interstate-49 thoroughfare has been closed at the Red River bridge just north of town. It will probably be quite some time before it opens as the current level of the river at the Index bridge is 27 feet. It is expected to crest on Sunday at 31 feet. The water level will remain steady or fall slowly over the next week after the crest on Sunday. Of course, the crest could be higher and last longer with more rainfall. The closing will cause major headaches for travelers and truckers as this is a major interstate highway that runs from New Orleans, LA to the Canadian border.

From Texarkananews.com:

"Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department has shut down Southbound lanes of Highway 71 and will be closing northbound lanes within the next few hours."

[weatherdude1108]

Update:

There were a lot of tree limbs down on our street and neighborhood from this morning's squall line at about 1:00am. I took pics, but not sure how to post here. One neighbor down on the other street had a large Bradford Pear tree limb fall on her SUV. Another Bradford Pear limb split in nearby church parking lot. We thankfully just had leaves and twigs down, with one medium size already dead tree branch fall down. I am ready for some calm.

[gboudx]

Lake Lavon is just 1.3' away from tieing it's highest crest ever recorded. It's currently at 503.6' with the record at 504.9'.

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291218
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
718 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
CANCELED PART OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CANCEL WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND ADJUST POPS
LOWER OVER THE WEST FOR THIS MORNING. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DIMINISHING SQUALL LINE WAS LOCATED FROM
KUTS TO THE HOUSTON METRO SITES TO KLBX AT 1130Z. EXPECT THESE TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 1230Z...AND THEN KGLS BY
13Z. RAIN OCCURRING IN THE TRAILING COLD POOL SHOULD LAST THROUGH
MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. THE RAP13 MODEL DID A DECENT JOB WITH
THE SYSTEM. THE MODEL KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA AT KGLS AND
KLBX THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE OTHER INLAND SITES. VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT
BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.

[Brent]

2015 obliterated 1982 at DFW, not even close.



One more round of MCS tonight into tomorrow morning to go for the all time record, need about 1.57 inches. After that some better weather to dry out and clean up across the state next week. But that's what it will be, a break because the pattern is relaxing before another western trough comes through.

Do you know what the wettest month ever is by chance?

[gboudx]

Couple updates from jeff:

Dangerous flash flood event underway over the NW portions of SE TX into SC TX.

Tremendous rainfall rates along a training band of thunderstorms from near San Antonio to College Station. Hourly rainfall rates nearing 3-5 inches under this band is leading to an extremely dangerous flash flood situation. Line continues to slow is forward motion and appears to be anchoring its southwest flank while very favorable low level inflow remain south of the line over all of SE TX. This is a very favorable flash flood setup capable of producing some extreme rainfall totals in a short period of time.

High resolution meso models want to bring this line slowly into SE TX and then toward I-10 by later this evening. Should the boundary become west-east facing the flash flood threat will increase even more as the low level flow will becomes perpendicular to the boundary. Training cells with excessive rainfall rates will be possible at least NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville…but could be displaced more southward closer to I-10. Will just have to watch radar trends to see how far south the storms will build.

Radar shows rapid development of training excessive rainfall from north of San Antonio to west of Austin ahead of eastward moving line of thunderstorms and cluster of tornadic supercells over SC TX. Strong SE low level flow is pumping copious moisture NW into C TX feeding training supercells and thunderstorm cells. Given saturated grounds and rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour with these storms rapid flash flooding of creeks and rivers will be possible where extended period of training establishes. Current radar trends suggest at least this is possible along and just west of I-35 from NE of San Antonio to Austin to south of Waco.

As experienced Sunday morning the rivers in this area are capable of tremendous rises in a short period of time with excessive rainfall.

Thunderstorm activity at current is focused across:

Llano River
Pedernales River
Blanco River
Middle Colorado River
San Gabriel River
Little River

[gboudx]

Do you know what the wettest month ever is by chance?

Searching through this table, it appears 17.64" in April 1922. But that is when the official station was in downtown Ft. Worth.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dmoprecip

[funster]

Do you know what the wettest month ever is by chance?

Searching through this table, it appears 17.64" in April 1922. But that is when the official station was in downtown Ft. Worth.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dmoprecip

There's a chart on the bottom of this page also:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dapravgtp

These are the only two months ever higher than this current month for DFW:

April 1922 with 17.64 inches
April 1942 with 16.97 inches