MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...NRN IND...NW OH...SRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527...
   
   VALID 211928Z - 212100Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
   ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN NRN IL...NRN IND AND NW OH. AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS DEVELOP AND INCREASE
   IN INTENSITY. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 21Z ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN WI...SRN
   LOWER MI INTO WCNTRL OH. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER 70S F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES RANGING FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SHOWS THE CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE
   CAPPING INVERSION IS VERY WEAK ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
   STORM INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION...A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED OVER NE IL AND IS
   RESULTING IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   AND BOW ECHOES. AS STORMS INITIATE...RAPID DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
   DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND
   WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING IF A
   LINEAR MCS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE AND MOVE QUICKLY
   EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
   
   40438437 40058863 40728938 41548931 41968861 42238654
   42228419 41368355

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1279
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 212019Z - 212145Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   ENEWD INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WITH A WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOW MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE
   700 MB SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE
   MCS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
   IMAGERY JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WSR-88D VWPS
   CURRENTLY SHOW 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN LOWER MI
   SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE MCS. HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR
   ALOFT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   43488473 43658652 44568719 45358631 45458431 44768307
   43708348

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1280
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SW KS...ERN OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 212024Z - 212300Z
   
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL INITIATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. A WW WILL LIKELY
   SOON.
   
   MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE INCREASED DUE TO PERSISTENT SLY FLOW
   ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE
   STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED NE-SW ACROSS KS. THE STRONGEST HEATING
   AND STEEPEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS FAR SWRN KS INTO THE
   OK/TX PANHANDLES AND THIS IS WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS
   ANTICIPATED AS CAPPING IS STRONGER FARTHER E.
   
   GIVEN VERY LARGE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...VERY
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF 20-35 KTS IS
   NOT OPTIMAL FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   LIKELY. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE FROM SWRN AND
   CENTRAL KS INTO NRN KS...WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR
   LEFT-MOVERS. FARTHER S INTO OK AND TX...DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
   LIKELY GIVEN VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENHANCING OUTFLOW.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
   
   39489704 38439694 37939749 37249794 36359951 35720028
   35170094 34590172 34420258 34520295 34950305 36280233
   36720207 37320163 37950112 38500073 39329982 39959846
   39909751 39769718

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0425 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI / NRN-CENTRAL OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 212125Z - 212200Z
   
   NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR SERN LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF
   NRN AND CENTRAL OH.
   
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE NERN AND SERN
   PARTS OF WW 530.  AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...
   GIVEN MOIST SWLY FLOW. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS SERN LOWER MI
   INDICATED LIKELIHOOD FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS BECOMING SEVERE AS NEW
   ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO SERN LOWER MI AND NRN/CENTRAL OH.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   41578431 42028432 42718405 42648311 41868276 41448179
   40718182 39938200 39938303 40108390 41038385 41438400

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1282
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI...UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528...
   
   VALID 212138Z - 212315Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND CONTINUES OVER ERN WI AS WELL AS
   MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN U.P. OF MI. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY SURVIVE
   E OF CURRENT WW...BUT ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
   
   STORMS HAVE REMAINED RATHER ISOLATED WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NOTED OVER
   NERN WI AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING...AND
   DEWPOINTS DECREASING...TEMPERATURES/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
   HIGH THUS INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE. GIVEN STRONG
   WLY SHEAR VECTORS AND CONTINUED FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH...ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...ARX...
   
   44978324 44368326 44548664 44198770 44189009 47278821
   46908476 45908360

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1283
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527...
   
   VALID 212224Z - 212300Z
   
   SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
   ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL.  THUS...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   BEFORE 23Z ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SRN WI/NRN IL TO REPLACE WW 527.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
   INTO CENTRAL/SRN WI...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE OR THE SRN EXTENTION OF
   THE WI WAVE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING ASCENT ACROSS NRN IL.
   LATEST SURFACE DATA/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   NEAR CHICAGO SWWD INTO FAR SERN IA /30 N BRL/. AIR MASS FROM FAR
   SRN WI INTO IL REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM
   2000-2500 J/KG.  THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 35-40 KT...
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...
   ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
   
   40599008 41479006 42468989 43078984 43368948 43268740
   42958718 41648708 40348729 40358989

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1284
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 212253Z - 220030Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN SC THROUGH
   01-02Z.  GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ADDITIONAL THREAT...WW IS NOT
   EXPECTED.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A WELL ESTABLISHED
   COLD POOL WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH
   FAR SERN NC AND NERN SC.  ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
   ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IN SC...MAINLY E THROUGH SW OF
   OGB.  AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE INLAND OF
   THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE TO ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD
   INTO EAST CENTRAL GA.  DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
   PULSE-TYPE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
   BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 20
   DEGREES MAY ENHANCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   33368138 33898113 34388053 34578003 34467941 34317861
   34047851 33637892 33087937 32618078 32828129

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529...
   
   VALID 212326Z - 220100Z
   
   SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND HAVE MERGED INTO LARGE CLUSTER
   ACROSS SERN CO...AND WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW WITH
   HIGH WIND THREAT. ASIDE FROM THIS CLUSTER...MORE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT AS ELY SFC-850 FLOW PERSISTS AND BRINGS HIGHER
   DEWPOINTS WWD. DEPARTURE OF MAIN CLUSTER MAY ALLOW MASS FIELDS TO
   BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CO. DEVELOPMENT
   WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
   
   E OF THE WW INTO W CENTRAL KS...THREAT OF SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL
   WILL EXIST IF CO STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM NWD AND MOVE INTO THE AREA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   37000205 36960501 39980497 39990361 38620198

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0725 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI / NRN-CENTRAL INTO ERN OH
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 532...
   
   VALID 220025Z - 220130Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS WW 532 THIS EVENING. NEW WW IS
   BEING CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WW INTO ERN PARTS OF OH.
   
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION PER INCREASING SWLY LLJ ACROSS OH
   VALLEY IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS EWD INTO ERN OH.
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN ESTABLISHED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS EXTENDING FROM NWRN OH EWD ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE...
   REACHING NRN ERIE COUNTY.  CURRENT TRACK OF THIS LEAD ACTIVITY
   SHOWED STORMS MOVING EAST OF WW 532 INTO LORAIN COUNTY BETWEEN 2330-
   01Z.  50 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ATOP SWLY 30-35 KT LLJ ARE
   MAINTAINING STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
   THREAT TO CONTINUE AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES FROM W-E. 
   
   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS LOCATED NORTH OF THE SERN LOWER MI/NWRN
   OH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A POTENTIAL SEVERE
   THREAT...GIVEN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD THROUGH
   LOWER MI AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...
   
   40468379 41718417 42718403 43128263 42878249 41648233
   41608134 41878072 41248059 40428077 40238145 40308285

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...MUCH OF KS...SERN NEBRASKA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531...533...
   
   VALID 220046Z - 220245Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF KS AND SERN
   NEBRASKA...WITH SMALLER HAIL LIKELY OVER TX. DAMAGING WIND WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN THE WATCHES.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND SERN CO
   STORM CLUSTER. NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS FORMED OVER NERN CO...ESSENTIALLY
   LINKED UP WITH ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
   ENTER WRN KS.
   
   TO THE SE..SEVERE STORMS PERSIS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SERN
   NEB. INTO SWRN KS...AND ALONG DRYLINE INTO TX PANHANDLE. RAPID
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN KS WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   COLLIDE NEXT FEW HOURS. TO THE SOUTH...STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
   WILL PERSIST AS WELL GIVEN SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AMPLE FEED OF
   INSTABILITY NWD. LATER IN THE NIGHT...STORM CLUSTER COULD MERGE
   TOGETHER INTO A LARGER MCS...SHIFTING SEWD TOWARD THE ICT AREA AND
   INTO NRN OK LATE...WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
   
   01Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK WILL BE SHIFTED EAST TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...
   
   34759995 34740038 34320042 34360204 34740207 34710296
   36940298 36990207 38240205 38280019 39140008 39159959
   40029964 40029833 40359825 40359737 40699733 40749691
   41079685 41069640 40839642 40789581 40169542 39969526
   39679532 39649549 39449552 39429512 38979513 38959499
   38739504 38719548 38379557 38389586 38129592 38029725
   37869725 37919762 37689783 37329788 37339827 37059834
   36959995

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1288
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0907 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI/NERN IND/NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 530...
   
   VALID 220207Z - 220230Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER
   MI...NERN IND AND NWRN OH THROUGH 03Z. WRN MOST STORMS...NOW
   LOCATED OVER CALHOUN COUNTY MI AND ALLEN/WELLS COUNTIES IND SHOULD
   MOVE EAST OF WW 530 JUST AFTER 03Z ALLOWING THIS WW TO EXPIRE AS
   SCHEDULED.
   
   UNTIL 03Z...AIR MASS ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 530 REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AT 40-50 KT SUPPORTIVE OF
   ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH 03Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
   
   40448532 41378505 42418521 42768507 42768411 41438397
   40568392 40178409 40358502

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0909 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NWRN KS/FAR SWRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529...535...
   
   VALID 220209Z - 220415Z
   
   THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN LIMITED FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW
   529 THROUGH THE EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/ OVER THE FRONT RANGE NERN CO.
   FURTHER EAST...CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR NERN CO WITH LEFT AND RIGHT SPLITS
   MOVING NEWD/SEWD RESPECTIVELY INTO FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS OVER THE
   NEXT 1-2 HRS.
   
   NRN HALF OF WW 529 OVER NERN CO HAS NOT BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED
   DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT MOVED ACROSS SERN CO INTO
   SWRN/WCENTRAL KS. MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER
   WRN CO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG PER THE
   00Z DNR SOUNDING/ SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP
   OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO. LONG TERM
   SVR THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HIGH...SO A NEW WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED TO REPLACE WW 529. HOWEVER...WW 529 MAY BE EXTENDED
   LOCALLY PER WFO DISCRETION.
   
   FURTHER EAST OVER FAR ERN CO..NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB...GLD VWP AND MCK
   PROFILER DATA SHOWS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35-40 KTS/ WITH
   STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS. SPLITTING SUPERCELLS HAVE RESULTED WITH
   THE MAIN SVR THREAT OVER WW 535 REMAINING ACROSS FAR ECENTRAL/NERN
   CO THROUGH 03Z. SUPERCELL STROM MOTIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SLOW
   DUE TO ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW...LARGE
   HAIL AND DMGG WIND THREAT WITH THESE CELLS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH
   NWRN KS/FAR SWRN NEB UNTIL AFTER 03Z. FURTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE
   LINE OVER SWRN KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO SRN
   PORTION OF WW 535. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DMGG WINDS
   DUE TO LINEAR NATURE OF STORMS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   40140131 40010344 39990487 38920466 38430429 38280265
   38379948 40209962

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0945 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...NRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531...
   
   VALID 220245Z - 220445Z
   
   OUTFLOW COLLISIONS OVER SWRN KS AND THE NRN/ERN TX PANHANDLES MAY
   SUPPORT A MARGINAL SVR THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 531
   EXPIRATION TIME. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ORGANIZING OVER THE NERN TX
   PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK...MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR THREAT AS IT
   MOVES EWD INTO NRN OK. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW
   OVER THIS AREA.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OK/NRN TX
   PANHANDLE...WHERE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING. CONVECTIVE
   LINE WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING IN NWRN OK. HOWEVER
   INTERPOLATION OF THE 00Z OUN/DDC SOUNDINGS SHOWS WARMER MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CINH SHOULD EXIST OVER NRN OK. HOWEVER
   IF COLD POOL IS DEEP ENOUGH THEN WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
   JET/INFLOW CONVECTIVE LINE MAY BE SUSTAINED OR INCREASE IN STRENGTH.
   GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW OVER NRN OK. FURTHER
   WEST...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE
   SRN TX PANHANDLE MAY MERGE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN TX
   PANHANDLE AND SUPPORT RENEWED ISOLATED SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BUT
   THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE. OVER SWRN KS...MOST OF THE
   AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER...BUT COLLAPSING TSTMS MAY SUPPORT DMGG
   WIND GUSTS. THE SVR THREAT OVER WW 531 IS ANTICIPATED TO WANE IN THE
   NEXT 1-2 HRS...WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAK FORCING...SO WW 531
   SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   38099953 38190129 38060155 36190224 35610116 35550055
   35499780 35589732 36679670 37349783 37299975

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1028 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI AND NORTH CENTRAL OH
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 532...
   
   VALID 220328Z - 220400Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN FIRST PARAGRAPH
   
   SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO EXIT MUCH OF WW 532 BY 04Z.  THE SERN PART
   OF THIS WW FROM CRAWFORD/MARION COUNTIES TO ASHLAND TO KNOX COUNTIES
   MAY REQUIRE A LOCAL WFO EXTENTION GIVEN THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
   STORMS SHOULD NOT EXIT THIS PART OF WW 532 UNTIL 05Z.
   
   ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A COUPLE OF LINES OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NRN OH...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE
   ESE AT 30-40 KT.  THESE LINES OF STORMS ARE TRACKING ESEWD ALONG AN
   INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED FROM THE
   SOUTHWEST PER A 35 KT SWLY LLJ AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   EXTENDING FROM SRN IL/IND INTO SWRN-SRN OH.  GREATEST THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AS WAS EVIDENT AT FDY AROUND 03Z
   WITH A RECORDED SEVERE WIND GUST OF 53 KT.
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
   ACROSS SERN LOWER MI AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL OH IN THE WAKE OF THE WRN
   MOST LINE OF STORMS...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AND
   INSTABILITY REMAINING SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   41748239 40848213 40188232 40398339 40258385 42758419
   43158244

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1045 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN KS...NRN MO/FAR SRN IA AND SERN
   NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533...
   
   VALID 220345Z - 220545Z
   
   CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS OVER CENTRAL/ERN KS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 WILL
   CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS THEY
   MOVE SLOWLY SEWD. MERGING OUTFLOW BNDRYS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SVR
   THREAT BECOMING MORE OF A HVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER
   CENTRAL/ECENTRAL KS. DESPITE INCREASING CINH...CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
   FAR NWRN OK/SCENTRAL KS MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE GIVEN RELATIVELY
   STRONG COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE.
   
   SVR CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL KS HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SWD SUPPORTED BY
   MODEST PRESSURE RISES. HOWEVER...EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BNDRY
   OVER SWRN KS HAS BEGUN TO MERGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND IS NOW
   SUPPORTING A SLOWER MVMNT SPEED ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER /SLN AND RSL AREA/. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   EWD ALONG THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
   I-70 OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS THE SWRN KS OUTFLOW SHOULD REMAIN
   SUPPORTED BY A STRONG REAR INFLOW JET /50 KTS PER THE 02Z GDA
   PROFILER DATA/. DMGG WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...BUT AS MERGING OUTFLOWS
   AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE MODE...HVY RAIN WILL
   BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT STRONGER
   INFLOW INTO CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF FAR
   SCENTRAL KS. DESPITE STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE
   AND MATURE COLD POOL...INCREASING CINH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE SVR
   THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   FINALLY...OVER SERN NEB SMALLER CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS SHOULD BE
   MAINTAINED GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY / REF 00Z OMA SOUNDING/ AND
   SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY INCREASING TSTM
   COVERAGE AND A MARGINAL SVR THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG
   MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO FAR SRN IA AND NRN MO THROUGH THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HRS GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NOTED
   ON THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ONLY
   MODEST LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH SUGGESTS THAT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND A NEW WW EAST OF WW 533 IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   40859245 40919474 40799634 39519716 38919959 38640045
   38410029 38219849 37379862 37189888 36999766 37119499
   38569460 39329230 39999193

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH / WRN PA/ NRN WV PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536...
   
   VALID 220405Z - 220530Z
   
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD THROUGH WRN PART OF
   WW 536 BETWEEN 04-06Z.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF STORMS
   EXTENDING FROM RICHLAND TO LORAIN COUNTIES OH AND MOVING TO THE ESE
   AT 40 KT.  ADDITIONAL STORMS EXTENDED EWD INTO NERN OH/NWRN PA.
   THE WRN MOST STORMS ARE THE STRONGEST AND WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A
   RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER IND/WRN-SRN OH PER 35
   KT SWLY LLJ.  THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO ERN OH WITH A RECENT
   HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
   ESE REACHING THE NRN WV PANHANDLE COUNTIES OF HANCOCK TO OHIO TOWARD
   06Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
   
   40158220 41988229 42377992 41967896 41167878 40367896
   40057926 39948050

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0725 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221225Z - 221400Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN IL ATTM.  SEVERE
   THREAT MAY INCREASE AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...POSSIBLY
   REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
   MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NWRN IL ATTM...ALONG NRN FRINGES OF INSTABILITY
   AXIS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND SRN IL/THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
   
   STORMS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED -- ABOVE A SHALLOW/STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER. RECENT SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS HAVE BEEN IN THE FORM OF
   MARGINAL HAIL...BUT THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ASSOCIATED
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING
   WIND POTENTIAL WITH TIME.
   
   THOUGH DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS RELATIVELY
   MARGINAL -- WITH WINDS GENERALLY AOB 30 KT THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID
   TROPOSPHERE.  THOUGH THIS FACTOR MAY ACT TO LIMIT HIGH-END WIND
   POTENTIAL...FAVORABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR
   LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS -- POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
   41538976 42218554 41528451 39968569 39308868 39459048
   39579110 40579015

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0903 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...SRN IL...FAR SW IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221403Z - 221530Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN
   KY...SRN IL AND FAR SW IND. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO NCNTRL IL AND FAR NRN IND.
   DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AND
   STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN IL...SRN IND AND
   WRN KY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WRN KY AND
   SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS EXPAND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NWD THIS
   MORNING. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
   A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM SUGGESTING A HAIL THREAT
   WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
   
   37028917 37828924 38478868 38548743 37628668 36788713
   36578832

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0955 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE IL...IND AND OH...NRN KY...NRN WV...FAR WRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
   
   VALID 221455Z - 221630Z
   
   AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF SE
   IL...IND...OH...NRN KY...NRN WV AND FAR WRN PA FOR TODAY. THE
   OUTLOOK DISCUSSION CONCERNING THIS MODERATE RISK UPGRADE WILL BE
   ISSUED BY 1630Z.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
   
   37028917 37828924 38478868 38548743 37628668 36788713
   36578832

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MO...WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221622Z - 221745Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
   SCNTRL MO ON THE SRN END OF AN MCS. AS THE CELLS EXPAND IN
   COVERAGE...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL DEVELOP. A
   WW WILL BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC MESOLOW OVER SE MO WHERE LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ACCORDING TO
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME UNCAPPED AND THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN SRN MO. THE
   AIRMASS IN WHICH THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D
   VWPS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING CONDITIONS WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR STRONG MULTICELLS. STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH
   THE STRONGER CELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...
   
   37999009 37359259 37779314 38439319 38829277 39559027
   38538940