STORM2K

The second shower of the day is falling over the southside of Austin. Had the first around noon time. A sign of things to come this month? I hope so.


It's dipped into the mid 60s here at my house twice so far over the past 2 weeks. As far as the two official recording stations, the one at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport will dip into the 50s first as it's near a creek bed and typically sees cooler temps than at Camp Mabry. I think ABIA could hit 59 by September 15th MAYBE lol. Then probably here at home next and Camp Mabry either around the 21st or a few days after. Don't hold me to it lmao

Wish I could say this guess was educated....

DFW 10/8
IAH-10/16
KAUS- 10/9

I'm not getting your scoring system, Ntxw. Wouldn't you just add a point for each day off your forecast is, regardless of whether the first 59 is before or after your picked date? Lowest points wins?

We've been running this 59F or lower at IAH contest for 20+ years and I can tell you that it's frequently the 3rd week or 4th week of September. October is late for the first 59 down here, and I imagine it's very late for DFW and AUS. Checking 2014, the first 59F temp at DFW was Sept. 12th, and it was 56 on the 13th.

wxman57 wrote:I'm not getting your scoring system, Ntxw. Wouldn't you just add a point for each day off your forecast is, regardless of whether the first 59 is before or after your picked date? Lowest points wins?

I wanted to keep things a little simple on first run. It can be modified if it gets too complicated. Essentially if it hasn't happened you are still in contention, if it happens after your selected date you become disqualified for points for that location. If multiple people are left then we only need one (or more if tie) person to get the extra bonus if they are closest.

And it makes it easier to track points, instead of looking at everybody individually, just base it off the number of days until 59F from the 8th of Sept

So if I get all 3 within 24hrs of when the low of 59 occurs but the date is the day after my pick, then I lose? That doesn't seem right. This isn't The Price is Right. Scoring should be the total number of days you're off, regardless of whether the 59 occurs before or after. Why penalize someone for picking the day before the first 59F when others picked dates weeks away? I'll pass.

Here's the climo for all 3 stations for the last 5 years.

wxman57 wrote:So if I get all 3 within 24hrs of when the low of 59 occurs but the date is the day after my pick, then I lose? That doesn't seem right. This isn't The Price is Right. I'll pass.

Here's the climo for all 3 stations for the last 5 years.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/climo.JPG

Very well, it does seem a little unfair, less dramatic but I do like your way better. I'll adjust the scoring system, one point per day (per station) off the 59F lowest wins

You'll have to let those who already entered adjust their picks to account for the new scoring.

wxman57 wrote:You'll have to let those who already entered adjust their picks to account for the new scoring.

Deal, anyone who posted an official guess before this post may adjust their selection once by the end of the deadline date.

Texarkana came awfully close to 59 last Friday night, with a low of 60.

When is it gonna start feeling like fall?

12Z GFS has DFW down to 56F on the 16th of September.

wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS has DFW down to 56F on the 16th of September.

I think...I think..I may be ok with Climo...I think...LOL

I know this is old news today, but interesting little factoid from yesterday's blog by Bob Rose:



In the far eastern Atlantic, a strong tropical wave rapidly strengthened into a hurricane near the Cape Verde Islands earlier today. According to the official Atlantic tropical cyclone record, which began in 1851, hurricane Fred is the first hurricane to pass through the Cape Verde Islands since 1892.

The eye of Fred passed just southwest of Boa Vista Island in the Republic of Cabo Verde (formerly called the Cape Verde Islands) near 8 am EDT Monday, with the northeastern eyewall likely hitting the island. The center of Fred is expected to pass over or very close to the northwestern Cape Verde islands of Sao Nicolou, Santa Luzuia, Sao Vicente, and Sao Antao by Monday night. When Fred was declared a hurricane at 2 am EDT Monday, at 22.5°W longitude, this was the easternmost formation location for any hurricane in the historical record; the previous record was held by Hurricane Three of 1900, which became a hurricane at 23°W, south of the Cape Verde islands.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

IAH - 9/22
AUS- 9/19
DFW - 9/10

wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS has DFW down to 56F on the 16th of September.

If only fantasy land were right... Just last night it had no heat relief through day 16.

the GFS might be on to something, the CFSv2 has been showing a strong cold front as well, it should be a lot clearer by the weekend on what might happen.

Got a 3rd much heavier downpour this evening with some lightning and thunder. 0.57 fell from today's 3 events with the majority falling from the isolated storm. That actually surpassed what I recorded for the month of August. September really is off to a good start, at least for parts of the southside of Austin. I know most of the city didn't see a drop.

Cool!

Yeah, nope. We didn't see a drop. Maybe some outflows, second day in a row. Teasing the north side.

JDawg512 wrote:Got a 3rd much heavier downpour this evening with some lightning and thunder. 0.57 fell from today's 3 events with the majority falling from the isolated storm. That actually surpassed what I recorded for the month of August. September really is off to a good start, at least for parts of the southside of Austin. I know most of the city didn't see a drop.

Received close to a half inch yesterday evening, courtesy of that same cell. No complaints here!

Looks to me like the long-awaited front is still in the longer range, but it appears to be gaining some model support. 6z GFS shows it in just about 10 days, with a second front at the red river and dropping south by day 16. Additionally, according to the FWD AFD, the euro shows this front and even more precip with it, though I haven't taken a look myself.