Re: Mid-Atlantic Spring-Summer 2015
Posted: Thu Jul 09, 2015 9:43 am
000
FXUS61 KCTP 091203
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...
PLACING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA IN THE WARM
UNSTABLE SECTOR. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK BORDER AND DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS
HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN WILL BE AROUND EARLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL PENN.
MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. A RATHER SHARP DROP-OFF
TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER WILL MEAN
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS THERE.
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FCST BY ENSEMBLES AND HIGH
RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST NEAR THE PENN/NY BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. RARELY DO WE SEE THE 2 PRIME SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADIC
INGREDIENTS /THAT BEING CAPE AND 0-1KM SHEAR/...SO STRONG AND
MATCHING UP SO WELL DURING THE SUMMER HERE IN CENTRAL PENN. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL ALL BE TAKING PLACE AT THE MOST
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY / MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING/ FOR ATTAINING THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
TYPICALLY THIS MUCH LLVL SHEAR AND ENERGY ALOFT LEADS TO
WIDESPREADWEAKER CONVECTION AND PERSISTENT LAYERED
CLOUDS...PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY FROM FUELING SVR TSRA
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FAVORABLE SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS /AND HAVE TRENDED FURTHER
NORTH AND STRONGER WITH THEIR LLVL SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN/. A DISTINCT/STRONG AREA OF 0-1KM EHI IN THE 3-3.5 M2/S2
RANGE FORMS JUST EAST OF THE SFC LOW DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...THEN SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ/S WEST
BRANCH AND NORTH BRANCH BETWEEN 22-01Z. THE FAVORABLE MESOSCALE
ENVIRONMENT AND LOCALIZED TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS OF LLVL SHEAR IN
THE TSRA WILL ENHANCE THE TORNADIC THREAT IN A CORRIDOR FROM KBFD
TO KIPT...KSEG AND KAVP.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE OR LARGE HAIL FROM ONE OR MORE
FAST MOVING LINEAR CONVECTIVE FEATURES WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT /THOUGH ONE OR TWO BRIEF QLCS TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE INVOF OF BROKEN-S SIGNATURES/.
SPC/S DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AND MRGL RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
BACK A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS DAY 2 RISK AREA
/AND COVERS APPROX THE SE 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
THE OTHER ASPECT OF THE FCST TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH SUSQ VALLEY WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FGEN IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE AND SHOULD
BE OCCURRING OVER A LONGER DURATION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC
WARM FRONT. 3 HOUR FFG VALUES IN THIS REGION ARE ONLY AROUND
1.3-1.5 INCHES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT PWATS OF 2-2.25 INCHES /ANOMALIES OF PLUS 3-4
SIGMA/ WILL BE FUELING THESE STORMS AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THE TRAINING OF 2 OR 3 INDIVIDUAL CELLS...FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A
DISTINCT THREAT. COORDINATED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH WFOS KBUF
AND KBGM TO RUN FROM 17Z TODAY THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ALONG...AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
/LOW- MID 70S NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER...UPPER 70S NEAR THE I-80
CORRIDOR...AND 80-85F ACROSS THE SOUTH/. HOWEVER...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /WHICH IS SOLIDLY
LINKED TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 75 KT 300 HPA JET/ MOVES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IT MAY BRING ENOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO TRIM TEMPS IN SOME AREAS BELOW CURRENT FCST MAXS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING EAST ACROSS THE DELAWARE
VALLEY OF FAR EASTERN PENN AROUND MIDNIGHT. SWWD TRAILING COLD
FRONT FROM THE SFC LOW OVER THE CATSKILL REGION WILL MEANS THAT
ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
FROM 02Z ON WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH.
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF STEADILY OVERNIGHT AND DIP TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS FAR NRN PENN. LLVL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY WAIT TO BE SCOURED OUT UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN DUE TO THE VERY LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THE
SFC CFRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIGHT WIND...EVEN RIGHT IN ITS WAKE.
LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE NRN TIER...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST...
RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
EVENTUALLY SETTLING NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING NWD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IN A 48 HOUR/2-DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY CONTINUES THROUGH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...WITH THE
LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY
DRY/LOW PW AIR SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
RESIDES WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA
COAST WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...MOST LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH
THIS ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD CONVECTIVE IMPULSES
DIMINISHED THE ABILITY FOR ADEQUATE TIMING THROUGH THE MID AND
LONG TERM.
AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP
THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING LIFTING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING WAVE OVER
OHIO. ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING...A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT INROADS INTO THE IFR/LIFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
APPROACHING WAVE MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW CENTER WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NY...WHERE THE BULK OF THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL. AS THE
LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED TO BROKEN TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED THIS
MORNING...AND BREIFLY LIFT BEFORE MORE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSORMS MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWERING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT DRYING
WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS VFR
WILL DOMINATE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR. SUN...PRIMARILY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA
POSSIBLE WEST. SUN NIGHT- MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049-051>053.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...JUNG
FXUS61 KCTP 091203
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
803 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...
PLACING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA IN THE WARM
UNSTABLE SECTOR. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK BORDER AND DRAGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTABLY LESS
HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN WILL BE AROUND EARLY
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL PENN.
MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. A RATHER SHARP DROP-OFF
TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER WILL MEAN
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS THERE.
A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FCST BY ENSEMBLES AND HIGH
RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST NEAR THE PENN/NY BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. RARELY DO WE SEE THE 2 PRIME SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADIC
INGREDIENTS /THAT BEING CAPE AND 0-1KM SHEAR/...SO STRONG AND
MATCHING UP SO WELL DURING THE SUMMER HERE IN CENTRAL PENN. IN
ADDITION...THIS WILL ALL BE TAKING PLACE AT THE MOST
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY / MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING/ FOR ATTAINING THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
TYPICALLY THIS MUCH LLVL SHEAR AND ENERGY ALOFT LEADS TO
WIDESPREADWEAKER CONVECTION AND PERSISTENT LAYERED
CLOUDS...PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY FROM FUELING SVR TSRA
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FAVORABLE SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS /AND HAVE TRENDED FURTHER
NORTH AND STRONGER WITH THEIR LLVL SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN/. A DISTINCT/STRONG AREA OF 0-1KM EHI IN THE 3-3.5 M2/S2
RANGE FORMS JUST EAST OF THE SFC LOW DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...THEN SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ/S WEST
BRANCH AND NORTH BRANCH BETWEEN 22-01Z. THE FAVORABLE MESOSCALE
ENVIRONMENT AND LOCALIZED TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS OF LLVL SHEAR IN
THE TSRA WILL ENHANCE THE TORNADIC THREAT IN A CORRIDOR FROM KBFD
TO KIPT...KSEG AND KAVP.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE OR LARGE HAIL FROM ONE OR MORE
FAST MOVING LINEAR CONVECTIVE FEATURES WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT /THOUGH ONE OR TWO BRIEF QLCS TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE INVOF OF BROKEN-S SIGNATURES/.
SPC/S DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AND MRGL RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
BACK A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS DAY 2 RISK AREA
/AND COVERS APPROX THE SE 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
THE OTHER ASPECT OF THE FCST TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH SUSQ VALLEY WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FGEN IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE AND SHOULD
BE OCCURRING OVER A LONGER DURATION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC
WARM FRONT. 3 HOUR FFG VALUES IN THIS REGION ARE ONLY AROUND
1.3-1.5 INCHES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT PWATS OF 2-2.25 INCHES /ANOMALIES OF PLUS 3-4
SIGMA/ WILL BE FUELING THESE STORMS AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THE TRAINING OF 2 OR 3 INDIVIDUAL CELLS...FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A
DISTINCT THREAT. COORDINATED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH WFOS KBUF
AND KBGM TO RUN FROM 17Z TODAY THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ALONG...AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
/LOW- MID 70S NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER...UPPER 70S NEAR THE I-80
CORRIDOR...AND 80-85F ACROSS THE SOUTH/. HOWEVER...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE /WHICH IS SOLIDLY
LINKED TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 75 KT 300 HPA JET/ MOVES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IT MAY BRING ENOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO TRIM TEMPS IN SOME AREAS BELOW CURRENT FCST MAXS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING EAST ACROSS THE DELAWARE
VALLEY OF FAR EASTERN PENN AROUND MIDNIGHT. SWWD TRAILING COLD
FRONT FROM THE SFC LOW OVER THE CATSKILL REGION WILL MEANS THAT
ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
FROM 02Z ON WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH.
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL OFF STEADILY OVERNIGHT AND DIP TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS FAR NRN PENN. LLVL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY WAIT TO BE SCOURED OUT UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN DUE TO THE VERY LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THE
SFC CFRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIGHT WIND...EVEN RIGHT IN ITS WAKE.
LOW TEMPS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE NRN TIER...TO THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FCST OVER THE LOWER 48 INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST...
RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
EVENTUALLY SETTLING NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING NWD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE IN A 48 HOUR/2-DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY CONTINUES THROUGH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...WITH THE
LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING AN AREA OF ABNORMALLY
DRY/LOW PW AIR SPREADING INTO CENTRAL PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AND ULTIMATE SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
RESIDES WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA
COAST WHICH IS STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LKLY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...MOST LKLY IN THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...NOT ONLY WITH
THIS ENERGY BUT WITH ONE OR TWO LEAD CONVECTIVE IMPULSES
DIMINISHED THE ABILITY FOR ADEQUATE TIMING THROUGH THE MID AND
LONG TERM.
AS WITH THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM...EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP
THE 70 RANGE BY THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS
MORNING LIFTING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING WAVE OVER
OHIO. ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING...A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT INROADS INTO THE IFR/LIFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
APPROACHING WAVE MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THE WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW CENTER WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NY...WHERE THE BULK OF THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL. AS THE
LOW MOVES TO THE EAST...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED TO BROKEN TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED THIS
MORNING...AND BREIFLY LIFT BEFORE MORE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSORMS MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWERING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT DRYING
WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS VFR
WILL DOMINATE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...PRIMARILY VFR. SUN...PRIMARILY VFR. ISOLATED TSRA
POSSIBLE WEST. SUN NIGHT- MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049-051>053.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...JUNG