STORM2K

1900hurricane wrote:

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:It's been quite a long time since there's been a moderate risk including the Houston area.

Yep, since February 16, 2008, or over nine years ago.

Are you going to chase?

EF-5bigj wrote:The probabilities are pretty high 45%

Indeed and it expanded in the latest update at 17:30z.

 https://twitter.com/NWSShreveport/status/848246077904105473

A Flood Watch has been issued for N portions of SE TX from late tonight through Sunday evening.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
144 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

TXZ163-164-176-177-195-196-198-030000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0001.170402T0900Z-170403T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/Brazos-Burleson-Grimes-Houston-Madison-Trinity-Walker-Including the cities of Bryan, Caldwell, College Station,Crockett, Groveton, Huntsville, Lake Somerville, Madisonville, Navasota, and Trinity
144 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Texas...including the
following counties...Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...
Madison...Trinity and Walker.

* From late tonight through Sunday evening

* A warm front becoming nearly stationary within a very unstable environment may provide the focus for repeated daytime storm activity. Very moist air flowing directly into this boundary will enhance the threat for slow moving high rainfall producing thunderstorm cells. This will increase the probability for flash flooding across our far northern counties.

* Travel may become hazardous as flooding could occur over rural roadways or low water crossings. Rapid response water sheds could come out of banks within periods of heavy rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

I wonder if they go high risk with this?

 https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/848266623563780102

 https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/848271157040218112

Tireman4 wrote:

1900hurricane wrote:

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:It's been quite a long time since there's been a moderate risk including the Houston area.

Yep, since February 16, 2008, or over nine years ago.

Are you going to chase?

I'm not sure how well I can do actual chasing considering the trees and road network, but I'm going to try for at least some type of intercept.

I'm now included in the Moderate risk for Sunday. This is VERY rare for us, we all have to be on our toes tomorrow.

The model runs I've seen have been pretty troubling with discrete cells firing.

EF-5bigj wrote:I wonder if they go high risk with this?

Has there been a high risk day for Houston in the history of the SPC?

That. Worries. Me. Greatly. Folks make sure to have your phone's charged your Weather Radio batteries fresh and safety precautions up tp date.

ronyan wrote:

EF-5bigj wrote:I wonder if they go high risk with this?

Has there been a high risk day for Houston in the history of the SPC?

I think so, but is has been a LONG while

I think the last time Houston was in a high risk was December of 2002

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/e ... e=20021223

wxman22 wrote:I think the last time Houston was in a high risk was December of 2002

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/e ... e=20021223

List of high risk severe weather days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S ... _risk_days

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/848321377572618240

Has anyone else noticed the hook echo on that storm near Ballinger? Looks pretty ugly yet no tornado warning.

Okay there's a tornado warning for that storm now.

Confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado on the ground

If the HRRR model is right,DFW may see a very nasty squall line by noon.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/848347936312496128