STORM2K

Only 97 at the big airport so far may avoid 100 again

Remember when today was 105+ on the models?

Brent wrote:Only 97 at the big airport so far may avoid 100 again

Remember when today was 105+ on the models?

Up to 97 now, IIRC, the forecast was 104 earlier today and they lowered it to 101 during one of the updates.

18z 3K NAM holds on to a pretty decent looking event across DFW. SPC mesoanalysis shows surface based CAPE is pushing past 4000 j/kg and Sat images show a slowly developing CU field just north of DFW. Tha Cap is slowly eroding but there isn't a whole lot of lift with the front, so we need all the surface heating that we can get.

12z TXTech Ensemble looks pretty good

Just got an update that Camp Mabry officially reached 100 degrees around 3pm, the earliest 100-degree day since the infamously hot and dry year of 2011. Hmm.

We hit 100 too. Yay.

I am going to go on record to say I hope the current High pressure locks itself over the state for the entire summer because it will block any tropical nonsense from hitting our coast.

We still have a number of people still trying to get their lives back together down here. And everyone down here is going to get whacked with higher insurance costs as soon as the final bills come in from the insurance companies on top of all the litigation costs that will be passed on to we the consumers. Any further damage anywhere on our coast is going to compound it.

12Z GFS builds the ridge right over Texas around the 8th. Euro keeps the center west of Texas, which would not be as hot and would give us a chance of some afternoon storms. I'd trust the Euro over the GFS beyond a few days. May get some storms building across Texas tomorrow. Had a pleasant 5-hr bike ride today. Got back home around 2pm. Felt like a cool summer day.

102F at the HWC center in W Austin today! Summer is here! May get a few sct storms in Austin tom but chances look slim . The death ridge pattern continues...

We've got a cell firing just SW of DFW. The CU field north of DFW has thinned some over the past hour but also appears that the front is sagging towards the Red River, need to get something going here soon.

Still waiting for the front to set things off but it might not happen in DFW... However, there is one svr warned cell just SW of DFW that busted through

That cell is just anchored on that boundary

00z FWD Sounding

bubba hotep wrote:

Brent wrote:Only 97 at the big airport so far may avoid 100 again

Remember when today was 105+ on the models?

Up to 97 now, IIRC, the forecast was 104 earlier today and they lowered it to 101 during one of the updates.

Officially, 98 was the high... Busting low when it doesn't matter lol

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:I am going to go on record to say I hope the current High pressure locks itself over the state for the entire summer because it will block any tropical nonsense from hitting our coast.

We still have a number of people still trying to get their lives back together down here. And everyone down here is going to get whacked with higher insurance costs as soon as the final bills come in from the insurance companies on top of all the litigation costs that will be passed on to we the consumers. Any further damage anywhere on our coast is going to compound it.

Let us compromise. How about we keep Houston and the coastal areas rain free while the central and western half of the state gets a stalled meandering TUTT low?

Cold front sagging into NW Collin County, running out of time for storms...

Bummer. No storms.

Welp, let's try again tomorrow night...

These 80s today sure are refreshing.

Mets, need your brain and expertise. What are summers like where we have such a positive PMM like this? Does the positioning of where warm water is lead to sinking air in the West Texas region in the upper levels? Rising air from the warm water, bending to the right due to Coriolis effect, sinking right over Texas. Right? If so, this is going to be a brutal summer.


If this i the case, what other summers can we compare a +PMM to? I am heading out for a bit, i can check analogs later but if you guys have some already, that would be awesome.

Nice to see the radar lighting up.