STORM2K

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:75 at noon on June 2. Amazing. Only downside is it’s not hot enough for neighborhood pool.

Do not worry. The heat always finds a way in Texas.

Lol yes I'm sure we'll be complaining soon enough even up here I saw a 90 on the 10 day last night

There have been a number of Flash Flood Warnings out across Western Texas this afternoon.

Also, what is this boundary on radar? Sea breeze?

Yep, that's the sea breeze.

Lots of rain on the way. With the ground already saturated, we will probably see a lot more widespread flash flooding than the last couple of events.

Pretty good storm cluster this evening across Austin. Ever since last Fri, have seen over 4” total.

More rain on the way for Texas



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0271
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 PM EDT Thu Jun 03 2021

Areas affected...TX/LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031933Z - 040133Z

Summary...An isolated to scattered flash flood risk continues
across portions of south TX. Further east, a localized flash flood
risk may also exist over southeast TX into southwest LA.

Discussion...A convective cluster continues to slowly drift
southward over south central TX this afternoon. Expect continued
convective development along this outflow as it moves into an
environment characterized by ~2000 J/KG of MLCAPE. We are also
seeing some discrete development downstream of this activity over
south TX. Mean flow supports a south to north movement of
cells...however the entire convective cluster is propagating
southward. Thus we are likely to see some cell mergers through the
afternoon hours as convective development continues over south TX.

PWs around 2" and a deep warm cloud layer will continue to support
efficient rainfall in any of the stronger cells. Would continue to
expect localized hourly rainfall of 3". Wet antecedent conditions
and soil moisture running above average across this portion of
south TX, combined with the expected rainfall rates, supports an
isolated to scattered flash flood risk where cell mergers occur
into the evening hours.

Further east over southeast TX and southwest LA, convective cells
are developing along a stationary boundary just inland of the Gulf
Coast. These cells will be slow moving near the boundary, and will
generally pulse up and down quick enough at any one location to
limit the extent of the flash flood risk. However we probably have
just enough deep layer shear to support some multi cell activity,
which may persist/merge enough to locally result in some 2-3"
rainfall totals in an hour or two resulting in isolated flash
flooding here as well.

Chenard

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

Flash Flood Watch for Deep South Texas

another 1.2 at my place W Austin. May 2015 (now June) all over again

At the 1.00" mark up here this morning. Surprised how the radar looked when I woke up!

Time to start watching the BOC and what might come up late next week.

bubba hotep wrote:Time to start watching the BOC and what might come up late next week.

https://i.ibb.co/0GyYCTD/ecmwf-ens-z500a-Mean-namer-6.png

https://i.ibb.co/c6LMRyd/compday-ds73-BTe-T2p.gif

What are you referring to? I'm not sure what I am looking at.

Flash Flood Warning right along the 75 corridor.

Some new cells popping back SW, maybe the airport can officially pick up some rain out of this. The DFW airport picked up 7.77" or rain in May but the DFW area avg about 9.5" with Ft. Alliance coming in with nearly 12".

This is a rain bomb over the northern metro, just sitting and POURING rain and back building over the same areas for hours... I'm glad I'm home now. Stay safe out there!

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0280
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1128 PM EDT Sat Jun 05 2021

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060328Z - 060700Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding may continue across portions of
North Texas and far southern Oklahoma through the early overnight
hours with rainfall rates as high as 2-3"/hr.

Discussion...Deep convection is expanding across portions of
northeastern Texas late this evening, amid a highly favorable
mesoscale environment for heavy rainfall (as well as relatively
slow storm motions). SPC mesoscale analysis indicates MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg, PWATS of 1.7-1.8 inches (above the 90th percentile
for FWD), and effective bulk shear of near 20 kts. In addition,
the placement of a synoptic scale upper-level low over central TX
is providing a fair amount of divergence/diffluence aloft. These
factors, along with a weak low-level jet (20 kts) and modest
925-850 mb moisture transport, should continue to foster upscale
growth of convection over the next several hours.

The just in 00z HREF suite also suggests that convection will be
able to continue to proliferate through 06z. The probability
matched mean (PMM) QPF suggests an additional 2-3" is possible
over a fairly broad area over northeastern Dallas and points
northeastward (toward far southern Oklahoma). The current
convective trends bear this out, as radar and satellite imagery
depict continued storm mergers and outflow enhanced convergence
over an analyzed region of deep moisture convergence. 00z HREF
40-km neighborhood probabilities suggest a 30% chance of 3-inch
exceedance over the next several hours. This 3-inch exceedance has
already been realized just north of Dallas (near Allen, TX),
according to dual-pol radar estimates via KFWS (as well as MRMS
3-hr QPF through 03z) which depicts an area where 5+ inches of
rain has already fallen. Hydrologically, much of the surrounding
area is already relatively saturated, as NASA SPoRT-LIS soil
moisture percentiles average above the 70th percentile.

Given these latest convective trends, the 00z CAM output, and
antecedent soil conditions, flash flooding will continue to be
possible through 07z. Of particular concern is the prospect of
convection backward-propagating farther into the Dallas-Fort Worth
metro area, given the relatively slow storm motions and high
rainfall rates.

Churchill

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

Estimated totals so far and lightning is pickup outside again.

New Flash Flood Warning

I'm fighting to get the Summer Thread to at least 5 pages this year!

Absolutely dumping here again IMBY.

I'm glad that moved out finally. When's the next round coming?

somethingfunny wrote:I'm glad that moved out finally. When's the next round coming?

Later today into tonight. The 06z 3K NAM shows over a foot of additional rain for some areas.