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Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:54 pm
by Iceresistance
cheezyWXguy wrote:Iceresistance wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:Agreed, my eyes have been glued to this since the SPC started highlighting it. If the nam timing is right, most of central and eastern Texas will be in the thick of this, along with points east of course
The 12z NAM timing also has me under this, it tries to have Last Night for me all over again!
As of right now it’s definitely an outlier with regard to timing. We’ll need at least another of day of runs to start piecing together trends though, as we’re basically still out in the nam’s la-la land
SREF also has the higher parameters in the Western part of the Enhanced Risk, it's definitely trending further west.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:09 pm
by Edwards Limestone
May as well move over to the spring thread since we're already consistently in the mid 80s in the Hill Country...everything is in full bloom already.
Now, can we get some rain? Pretty please.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:16 pm
by bubba hotep
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Mon Feb 27, 2023 10:52 pm
by txtwister78
cheezyWXguy wrote:txtwister78 wrote:Concerned about the potential for another severe weather outbreak on Thursday focused further south into parts of Texas this time. Models look to be trending slower today with the approaching system/trough ejecting out from the west on Thursday. Ample shear (NAM parameters/soundings 84 hours out look insane already) along with the classic spring clash of airmasses across the state likely to be in place. Obviously other factors need to be considered as we get closer, but definitely something to keep an eye on going forward this week.
Agreed, my eyes have been glued to this since the SPC started highlighting it. If the nam timing is right, most of central and eastern Texas will be in the thick of this, along with points east of course
Yup. ICON also aligned more with the NAM right now.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:54 am
by Brent
So Oklahoma has set a record for number of tornadoes for the third month in a row
I'm gonna need this trend to stop before we get into the real season
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 1:24 am
by Cpv17
Brent wrote:So Oklahoma has set a record for number of tornadoes for the third month in a row
I'm gonna need this trend to stop before we get into the real season
My gut is telling me it’s going to be a very active severe weather season. But maybe if it cools off in March that will limit things at least for March anyway.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 1:35 am
by Brent
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:So Oklahoma has set a record for number of tornadoes for the third month in a row
I'm gonna need this trend to stop before we get into the real season
My gut is telling me it’s going to be a very active severe weather season. But maybe if it cools off in March that will limit things at least for March anyway.
Yeah I keep imagining what would have happened had it actually been warmer yesterday
still had a fatal tornado apparently even. it's definitely been a concerning season already
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:30 am
by bubba hotep
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:28 am
by Iceresistance
It's also going to keep trending further west, the storm systems have a really bad tendency to slow down.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 11:23 am
by rwfromkansas
The fact that storms are trending west and slowing is hopeful as we get into this season to have good rainfall. I think the La Nina weakening is helping to push back the precip a bit from the east focus of the past few years to more the plains region. Not sold on DFW being in this yet. May still be too far west, but it's more concerning.
Could make for a bad severe weather season depending on temps and other factors. I think March may be slower if it does get cool. But, early April on I bet look out....
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 11:32 am
by Iceresistance
12z Currently trended faster than the previous 0z/6z for Thursday (March 2nd)
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 11:48 am
by rwfromkansas
Looks like Larry Cosgrove is going warmer for March and basically saying winter is done.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:05 pm
by cheezyWXguy
rwfromkansas wrote:The fact that storms are trending west and slowing is hopeful as we get into this season to have good rainfall. I think the La Nina weakening is helping to push back the precip a bit from the east focus of the past few years to more the plains region. Not sold on DFW being in this yet. May still be too far west, but it's more concerning.
Could make for a bad severe weather season depending on temps and other factors. I think March may be slower if it does get cool. But, early April on I bet look out....
Thinking that the main threat for the dfw area will be hail, and potentially very large at that, given the forecast instability. Not seeing the red flags for tornadoes across the area I was seeing a day or two ago. Low level shear looks pretty meager from 12pm-6pm, which is when the majority of the event looks to transpire on the nam and gfs. Areas east would get the main tornado threat after dark when the llj kicks in. Of course, assuming the timing doesn’t slow down again…
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:08 pm
by bubba hotep
rwfromkansas wrote:Looks like Larry Cosgrove is going warmer for March and basically saying winter is done.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:32 pm
by txtwister78
I was tempted to post it just because of the month/timeframe on the calendar, but we would probably have more luck winning the lottery than that verifying.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 1:26 pm
by gpsnowman
Wouldn't that be something. I just mentioned in the Winter thread how disappointing it was not to have a multi-inch snow event this season. Who knows???
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 2:35 pm
by Iceresistance
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 2:51 pm
by Brent
gpsnowman wrote:Wouldn't that be something. I just mentioned in the Winter thread how disappointing it was not to have a multi-inch snow event this season. Who knows???
Lol even up here our best snow is the inch at Christmas. That's pathetic for up here
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 2:54 pm
by HockeyTx82
Is it me or will that water tower leave a hole in the radar?
Seems like odd placement.
Re: Texas Spring 2023
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 3:00 pm
by South Texas Storms
Some ensemble guidance has trended more towards a colder pattern by the middle part of March, likely due to the SSW event a few weeks ago. In fact, the 12z Euro Ensemble has the 1 inch mean snowfall contour down to Abilene over the next 15 days. I don't think winter is over for us yet.
