STORM2K

Pow Ponder is now agreeing with what I was thinking about October.

Cpv17 wrote:Pow Ponder is now agreeing with what I was thinking about October.

Gotta get through September first.

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Pow Ponder is now agreeing with what I was thinking about October.

Gotta get through September first.

Yeah, it’s gonna be miserable and the drought is most likely going to get even worse. I could be looking at a D4 drought here soon, which I haven’t seen here since 2011.

Wonderful I am in a D4 drought now.

IcyTundra wrote:Wonderful I am in a D4 drought now.

So is Houston

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Pow Ponder is now agreeing with what I was thinking about October.

Gotta get through September first.

Late September is usually when we get a front dropping lows in the upper 50s give or take. Might have to wait a bit longer for that unfortunately.

All jokes aside, there is hints of heights reversal for us as we move deeper into Fall. Remember El Nino has greater influence into the Fall and winter than does summer.

Ntxw wrote:All jokes aside, there is hints of heights reversal for us as we move deeper into Fall. Remember El Nino has greater influence into the Fall and winter than does summer.

When our long range guy says this, I listen.

Tireman4 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:All jokes aside, there is hints of heights reversal for us as we move deeper into Fall. Remember El Nino has greater influence into the Fall and winter than does summer.

When our long range guy says this, I listen.

I honestly listen to anyone that sounds credible I have 0 experience in long-range type weather

Ice, post Pow Ponders latest fall forecast he put out yesterday. It’s a good watch.

Cpv17 wrote:Ice, post Pow Ponders latest fall forecast he put out yesterday. It’s a good watch.

Link: https://youtu.be/0qNkFIczNVU

Iceresistance wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Ice, post Pow Ponders latest fall forecast he put out yesterday. It’s a good watch.

https://youtu.be/0qNkFIczNVU

Encouraging (like what happened in 2011)! I pray he's on the money, for all our landscapes' and water sources' sake.

I pray that's true. We need it!

The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.

In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...

Ntxw wrote:The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.

In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...

IIRC late Octobers of 91,92, and 93 were quite chilly with 93 having some light frozen stuff just before Halloween. I remember stading outside with my friends thinking what the hell when some wet snow and sleet started falling. Didn't last long and is the only October frozen precip I've ever seen. Thirty years ago, damn.

gpsnowman wrote:

Ntxw wrote:The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.

In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...

IIRC late Octobers of 91,92, and 93 were quite chilly with 93 having some light frozen stuff just before Halloween. I remember stading outside with my friends thinking what the hell when some wet snow and sleet started falling. Didn't last long and is the only October frozen precip I've ever seen. Thirty years ago, damn.

Yeah, I think Hurricanes Idilia and Franklin sucked up most of the moisture, exacerbating the feedback loop even more and extending the Ridge O' Misery to October across the central and southern US.

I'm guessing had the storms not hit or been as strong (leaving more available atmospheric moisture), we probably would have looked forward to a Mid-September flip. Maybe...

gpsnowman wrote:

Ntxw wrote:The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.

In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...

IIRC late Octobers of 91,92, and 93 were quite chilly with 93 having some light frozen stuff just before Halloween. I remember stading outside with my friends thinking what the hell when some wet snow and sleet started falling. Didn't last long and is the only October frozen precip I've ever seen. Thirty years ago, damn.

Halloween 2019 (the last El Nino of recent, at the time) was pretty chilly 51/30F at DFW. The winter then sucked because it was too weak and Nina like forcing overpowered the Nino. That was a cold November too like some of the Nino's of old.

Ntxw wrote:The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.

In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...

I was convinced we would see the flip in late summer based on some of the long range indicators in early summer, but that left egg on my face. However, I agree with the stong Nino thinking but am a bit worried about the unknown associated with the HTH eruption. Here is a strong Nino map:

bubba hotep wrote:

Ntxw wrote:The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.

In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...

I was convinced we would see the flip in late summer based on some of the long range indicators in early summer, but that left egg on my face. However, I agree with the stong Nino thinking but am a bit worried about the unknown associated with the HTH eruption. Here is a strong Nino map:

https://i.ibb.co/7GbCDYn/F43-PO2-NXUAEdwc.png

It's very unlikely the STJ will allow for it to stay hot in our region. However when I say anomalies I mean below normal relative to everywhere else. These days it's hard to predict cold. Summer sucks, it's hard to forecast because it's so dependent on rain and moisture, I've been egged to several times since Spring! At least in the cooler season the 500mb pattern can somewhat be more helpful.

Ntxw wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:

Ntxw wrote:The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.

In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...

I was convinced we would see the flip in late summer based on some of the long range indicators in early summer, but that left egg on my face. However, I agree with the stong Nino thinking but am a bit worried about the unknown associated with the HTH eruption. Here is a strong Nino map:

https://i.ibb.co/7GbCDYn/F43-PO2-NXUAEdwc.png

It's very unlikely the STJ will allow for it to stay hot in our region. However when I say anomalies I mean below normal relative to everywhere else. These days it's hard to predict cold. Summer sucks, it's hard to forecast because it's so dependent on rain and moisture, I've been egged to several times since Spring! At least in the cooler season the 500mb pattern can somewhat be more helpful.

I also think there is a rather high chance of an active spring. The correlation is very strong between +ENSO and precip especially in the spring. Also, there is a strong correlation with cooler temps too.