Texas Fall 2025

[mmmmsnouts]

Don’t weather apps tend to just regurgitate a model or two? That can make their forecasts way off target.

[HockeyTx82]

Don’t weather apps tend to just regurgitate a model or two? That can make their forecasts way off target.

Yes they do. I just always take a quick glance just for fun just to see what models maybe pushing out days out.

[Ntxw]

Got to watch Lorena. It will definitely cool temperatures a lot more where the heavy rains go. Locally someplace will get lots of rain with it, your classic Fall EPAC recurve.

At the same time there is a decent frontal boundary, along and south of it I expect the models to not perform well with qpf. It is a recipe for big rains.

[snownado]

It's so nice to have a strong/severe t'storm in the daytime for once...

BTW, in a rare occurence this season, DFW overachieved with a high of 100*F today.

That should make it 6 in total to likely close out the season.

Hmmm...

Might have spoke too soon..

[rwfromkansas]

It's so nice to have a strong/severe t'storm in the daytime for once...

BTW, in a rare occurence this season, DFW overachieved with a high of 100*F today.

That should make it 6 in total to likely close out the season.

Hmmm...

Might have spoke too soon..

There are often some sneaky ones before mid-September, looks like we might tomorrow.

[Cpv17]

I thought there was supposed to a recurving Pacific system? The Euro is dry for most of the state and Oklahoma lol GFS doesn’t have much widespread rain either.

[Texoz]

I thought there was supposed to a recurving Pacific system? The Euro is dry for most of the state and Oklahoma lol GFS doesn’t have much widespread rain either.

NHC still has Lorena curving into northern Mexico.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

[Brent]

I thought there was supposed to a recurving Pacific system? The Euro is dry for most of the state and Oklahoma lol GFS doesn’t have much widespread rain either.

Well the front clears us which is probably gonna largely dry us out I think

I think Texas is gonna be more favored for heavy rainfall

But how far south does the front get? I feel like that's a big part of this and the wildcard here?

[Cpv17]

I thought there was supposed to a recurving Pacific system? The Euro is dry for most of the state and Oklahoma lol GFS doesn’t have much widespread rain either.

Well the front clears us which is probably gonna largely dry us out I think

I think Texas is gonna be more favored for heavy rainfall

But how far south does the front get? I feel like that's a big part of this and the wildcard here?

Idk man, I really don’t think it’s gonna amount to much of anything for Texas or Oklahoma the way the globals look.

[Brent]

I thought there was supposed to a recurving Pacific system? The Euro is dry for most of the state and Oklahoma lol GFS doesn’t have much widespread rain either.

Well the front clears us which is probably gonna largely dry us out I think

I think Texas is gonna be more favored for heavy rainfall

But how far south does the front get? I feel like that's a big part of this and the wildcard here?

Idk man, I really don’t think it’s gonna amount to much of anything for Texas or Oklahoma the way the globals look.

Yeah I dunno either I mean the NHC mentioned some of the models never come ashore to even recurve yesterday.. .so I guess we'll see

It's no doubt been a drier trend up here for whatever reason

[HockeyTx82]

Well the front clears us which is probably gonna largely dry us out I think

I think Texas is gonna be more favored for heavy rainfall

But how far south does the front get? I feel like that's a big part of this and the wildcard here?

Idk man, I really don’t think it’s gonna amount to much of anything for Texas or Oklahoma the way the globals look.

Yeah I dunno either I mean the NHC mentioned some of the models never come ashore to even recurve yesterday.. .so I guess we'll see

It's no doubt been a drier trend up here for whatever reason

Winter Cancel

[wxman22]

The TC may become too sheared out to produce a lot of precipitation.The front will grab some moisture from the TC though but not that much.On another note it looks like we may see our first 50’s of the season this weekend lol.

[rwfromkansas]

NWS keeps dropping rain chances.

[Brent]

The TC may become too sheared out to produce a lot of precipitation.The front will grab some moisture from the TC though but not that much.On another note it looks like we may see our first 50’s of the season this weekend lol.

Yeah that front on Friday afternoon is looking crazy.... Tulsa mentioning 50 mph winds possible high school football is sounding fun

I think it might be pretty dry though

[cstrunk]

Euro keeps the rain mostly in S/SW TX. Which would be fine because they need it more than we do. The GFS is much drier.

At least we still have the front with cooler temps coming.

[rwfromkansas]

Euro keeps the rain mostly in S/SW TX. Which would be fine because they need it more than we do. The GFS is much drier.

At least we still have the front with cooler temps coming.

I just had 2 inches, so I am good for a bit. Just wish that abnormally dry bit a few miles south of me on SW would go away lol.

But, West TX and SW TX needs it a LOT MORE, so I hope they get it at least.

[ElectricStorm]

Guidance is trending towards Lorena not even making landfall... Total 180 from a couple days ago. Doubt we really see anything out of this

[rwfromkansas]

Guidance is trending towards Lorena not even making landfall... Total 180 from a couple days ago. Doubt we really see anything out of this

Some of the hypers on social media may have egg on their faces.

[Ntxw]

Win for the Euro?

[HockeyTx82]

Guidance is trending towards Lorena not even making landfall... Total 180 from a couple days ago. Doubt we really see anything out of this

Some of the hypers on social media may have egg on their faces.

Evan will be vindicated!