Severe Weather Potential Friday the 13th and MLK Day?

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therock1811
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#21 Postby therock1811 » Thu Jan 12, 2006 1:29 pm

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the Southeast tomorrow. Crapped out? I don't think so!

Also interesting to note is that this thing is looking stronger, and both models are putting out snow behind this thing, maybe a few inches in the Ohio Valley by Saturday midday. With so much cold air, we will really need to watch the severe threat first.
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#22 Postby Skywatch_NC » Thu Jan 12, 2006 1:40 pm

Wouldn't even know it was Jan...er June-uary...more like early June with highs approaching the lower 70s here today and tomorrow! :wink:

Eric
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#23 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 12, 2006 1:56 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-130400-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1246 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

...THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. THE TIME OF
GREATEST THREAT IS BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM. WHILE ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL HAVE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...THERE IS AN ENHANCED
RISK ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY
THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS...THERE IS ALSO A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

A BAND OR LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA...NEAR A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. AS CONDITIONS WARM UP FRIDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED. SOME MAY GROW STRONG ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO
BEGIN TO ROTATE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE CAN WARM AND MOISTEN UP EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
STORMS ARRIVE. IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND IF HUMIDITIES ARE ABLE TO INCREASE...THEN THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL INCREASE. IF OVERCAST CONDITIONS KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN IN THE 50S...THEN THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE LESS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND USHERS IN MORE STABLE AIR.

EVERYONE ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WHEN MAKING THEIR PLANS FOR FRIDAY. REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY PLANS WITH FAMILY MEMBERS AND COLLEAGUES...AND KNOW WHAT TO
DO IN THE EVENT THAT WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.
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#24 Postby therock1811 » Thu Jan 12, 2006 1:58 pm

Skywatch_NC wrote:Wouldn't even know it was Jan...er June-uary...more like early June with highs approaching the lower 70s here today and tomorrow! :wink:

Eric


June-uary...:lol: :lol:

Seriously, if I didn't know better, I'd think it was April!
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#25 Postby Donwx » Thu Jan 12, 2006 3:58 pm

Heres the latest discussion from the NWS in Houston:ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST...WITH LOW STRATUS/FOG LIKELY. 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND CROSSING THE STATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE 12Z GFS (SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS) SHOWING SE TX
GOING INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 140 KNOT 250 MB JET STREAK
MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS COINCIDES WITH A FAST-MOVING SURFACE DRYLINE
PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSPORTS PWS OF 1.5 INCHES ENSURING PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE.
LOOKS LIKE A ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE UNCERTAIN WITH CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS LIKELY. DRYLINE PASSES LATE
MONDAY...HOWEVER PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH AND ACTUAL FROPA WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE WRAP-AROUND CLOUD COVER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SOME POPS THESE PERIODS BUT KEPT
PRECIP OFFSHORE FOR NOW.

35
&&
note:(intresting...)
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#26 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jan 12, 2006 5:01 pm

We're now in a Mesoscale Discussion box. Yeah!! Maybe some much-needed rain :D :D
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#27 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Jan 12, 2006 6:27 pm

Wow was I wrong. :eek:

Guess I was right, the models changed back to outbreak. Another busy day tomorrow it seems.

EDIT: reading the discussion, it seems more like a wind event than a tornado event, but we shall see.
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#28 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Jan 12, 2006 7:02 pm

I've been told by several pros on another site that the GFS is way way off there. If the system is as strong as GFS is depicting, LIs will be much lower, as will dewpoints be much higher. Basically it makes no sense for the dynamic of this system to feature so paltry numbers. I was surmising on this myself earlier today and the Jackson MS NWS did too:

MODELS HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS SUSPICIOUSLY LOW FOR SUCH A
DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND HAVE A FEELING THAT THEY ARE AS MUCH AS 4-7F TOO
LOW. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S (RATHER THAN AROUND 60F)
INSTABILITY WOULD BE GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. HOWEVER...AM UNCERTAIN HOW THUR NIGHT/FRIDAY`S
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AFFECT MOISTURE SOURCE OVER THE GULF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES AND KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON TS POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY.


If this system scours the Gulf enough then I wouldn't be surprised at such low dew points (as the AFD suggests). After all, this is winter! :eek:
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#29 Postby Skywatch_NC » Thu Jan 12, 2006 7:13 pm

I've always been a severe wx enthusiast so tomorrow's SPC forecast is like a one day early birthday present for me! :D

Eric 8-)
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#30 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Jan 12, 2006 7:18 pm

Skywatch_NC wrote:I've always been a severe wx enthusiast so tomorrow's SPC forecast is like a one day early birthday present for me! :D

Eric 8-)


Wow, I had no idea. Happy Birthday Eric!! :D
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#31 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Jan 12, 2006 7:21 pm

MD 43, potential ww SE OK/NE TX/W AR/NW LA

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0043.html
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#32 Postby WaitingForSiren » Thu Jan 12, 2006 8:20 pm

I dunno, Im still a bit skeptical. It appears as though the warm front will be close to the cold front, so there might be widespread clouds ahead of the cold front, not to mention precipitation. But, since the models are more avid on this thing strengthening, I could see a few big time tornadoes in Georgia or Alabama. I wouldnt be too surprised though if it all craps out and all we get are scattered wind reports.

I am also a severe wx enthusiast. I was going nuts back in late June when we had a moderate risk over us for day 2, with talk of a possible tornado outbreak with my city right in the center of it all. It was a bust, though, of course! Well, not a total bust, but definitely not the major outbreak that was possible.
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#33 Postby mike815 » Thu Jan 12, 2006 8:23 pm

Yeah im not sure either i have been almost obsesed with severe wether since i was little. in florida it has been very boring this winter though its no suprise. anyway the first tornado watch is up but is expected to become more of a squall line and be more of a damaging wind hail producer.
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#34 Postby mike815 » Thu Jan 12, 2006 8:25 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 13
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL
200 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
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#35 Postby WaitingForSiren » Thu Jan 12, 2006 8:29 pm

Looks like some supercells are blowing up in eastern OK right now.
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#36 Postby mike815 » Thu Jan 12, 2006 8:54 pm

hmmm... yeah things do change fast looks like there starting to fire.
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#37 Postby mike815 » Thu Jan 12, 2006 9:14 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
806 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LE FLORE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 900 PM CST

* AT 803 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOKOSHE TO 21 MILES WEST OF
WHITESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BOKOSHE...
FANSHAWE...WHITESBORO...PANAMA...SPIRO...WISTER...MUSE...POTEAU...
ARKOMA...CAMERON...HOWE...POCOLA...BIG CEDAR AND HEAVENER.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

LAT...LON 3537 9486 3495 9498 3454 9491 3452 9446
3536 9441
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#38 Postby mike815 » Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:13 pm

TORNADO WARN for 2 counties first warn. UNTIL 945 PM CST.

* AT 907 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KIMBERLING CITY...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
BRANSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE...
NEAR HOLLISTER BY 915 PM CST.
NEAR BRANSON BY 920 PM CST.
NEAR ROCKAWAY BEACH BY 925 PM CST.

THE TOWNS OF LAMPE...SILVER DOLLAR CITY...TABLE ROCK...KIRBYVILLE...
WALNUT SHADE...EDGEWATER BEACH...OZARK BEACH AND POWERSITE ARE ALSO
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

LAT...LON 3667 9353 3655 9348 3660 9307 3682 9323

$$
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#39 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Jan 13, 2006 12:06 am

Pope, Yell, and Conway Counties in Arkansas under Tornado Warnings now:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1036 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN POPE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHEASTERN YELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1115 PM CST

* AT 1030 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DARDANELLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DARDANELLE...RUSSELLVILLE AROUND 1040 PM CST
POTTSVILLE AROUND 1045 PM CST
ATKINS AROUND 1050 PM CST

&&

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WESTERN ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3525 9286 3509 9321 3521 9328 3526 9328
3533 9315 3535 9311 3540 9303 3541 9298
3549 9284

$$

46


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1055 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CONWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1145 PM CST

* AT 1051 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF
HATTIEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HATTIEVILLE...JERUSALEM AROUND 1105 PM CST
ST. VINCENT AROUND 1110 PM CST

&&

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WESTERN ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3534 9249 3517 9254 3514 9274 3513 9285
3522 9284 3540 9284 3546 9283 3546 9274
3546 9249

$$

46
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#40 Postby mike815 » Fri Jan 13, 2006 12:11 am

yup very active night even more tomorrow
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