Severe Weather/Heavy Rainfall This Weekend for Texas

[vbhoutex]

Right now the MCS complex is approaching the areas just to the North of Austin(I was t here for last nights event). Looks like arrival time here in SE TX area should be around 6:30 7:30 in the morning, at least for the leading edge.

[Shoshana]

Looks like the Waco area got pounded - wunderground radar is showing a tornado sig right thru thr middle of town. .... no word on Waco news sites yet tho.

[Johnny]

It looks like it will be a little sooner than 6:30. I'm thinking between 4:30 to 6:30. I'm inbetween Montgomery and Conroe so I'll probably see it between 4:30 and 5:30. This thing has severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings all over it. If it holds together (I don't see why not) then it's gonna be packing one heck of a punch.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston is now under a tornado watch. That MCS has already caused gusts up to 87mph, hail to baseball size and tornadoes, so we will need to watch out. We should be safe for the next hour or two though.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like the Waco area got pounded - wunderground radar is showing a tornado sig right thru thr middle of town. .... no word on Waco news sites yet tho.

I was watching that one and another on Wunderground. Radar of the winds did show a definite signature at the time you were talking about. Haven't heard anything news wise yet though either.

[Johnny]

It looks to be making a bee line straight towards southeast, Texas. It's starting to form into a severe line with plenty of wind and hail. I've got my alarm set for 4. Ok, off to bed.

[TexasSam]

No update from the Houston / Galveston weather service yet. I guess it caught them off guard. They normaly say something before a watch happens.

[Johnny]

The leading line of storms just pushed through with gusty winds with lots of rain behind it. Nothing severe thankfully but more severe weather has form out in the hill country behind this with a severe thunderstorm warning for Kerr County. This area got worked over earliar with bad weather and now another round is forming it looks like.

[Johnny]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 8 AM. LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH THIS COMPLEX...BUT THE RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN AS THEY ENTER OUR CWA. SOME SPOTS COULD EASILY SEE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.
DUE TO THE AREA'S RECENT DRYNESS...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES
AT THIS TIME. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING UP NORTH
AND LOWERED THEM A BIT TOWARD THE COAST. THINK MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL STABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...IF THIS MORNING'S STORMS MOVE ON OUT EARLY AND THE SUN SHINES
ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE STORMS
AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER
POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING COULD
BRING US SOME MORE STORMS. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THESE HARD TO TIME IMPULSES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
AN EARLY MAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THIS SCENARIO
AND LOWERED THURSDAY'S AND FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

[jasons2k]

It's pouring here with a nice light show, but nothing severe.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, some rain, wind and lightning here as well, but not nearly comparable to Thursday's storm. Looks like we have a chance of storms the next two days though, so I am sure this will not be our only round.

[wxman22]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
550 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT

* AT 550 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOOKS AIRPORT...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALDINE...
SPRING...
BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...
HUMBLE...
KINGWOOD...
SHELDON...
CROSBY...
BARRETT...
PORTER HEIGHTS...
PORTER...
NEW CANEY...

STRONG WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OR DAMAGE
BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW!

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FOR THE WARNED AREA.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3013 9556 2991 9560 2982 9498 3021 9513

$$





[vbhoutex]

The show started here in Spring Branch about 10 minutes ago. Same as above-intense CG and pouring to beat the band, with some wind, but definitely not approaching severe yet, if it is going to.

[KatDaddy]

58MPH at IAH

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HARRIS AND
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

AT 613 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HUMBLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
AT 604 AM CDT...HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT RECORDED A WIND
GUST OF 58 MPH.

[wxman22]

At my house by the medical center winds are gusting over 50mph! And its pouring cats and dogs!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow, IAH got a gust to 58mph? That is weird, because the storm moved through my area less than 20 minutes before reaching IAH and I think I only recieved 40-50mph gusts.

[Extremeweatherguy]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
EVOLVE FROM THE PLAINS ON TUE TO THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY THU.
MOST MODELS AGREE THAT LOW-LEVEL MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS EWD INTO THE OH
VLY AND DEEP S. GIVEN STRONG WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE
TROUGH...THE THREAT FOR DAILY SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FROM TUE-THU
OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY ON TUE.

..RACY.. 05/06/2006

[Johnny]

I've got a quick question after y'all read this update.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1059 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2006

.UPDATE...
WILL BE LOWERING POPS A BIT MORE WITH THE UPDATE. OVERNIGHT CON-
VECTION HAS HELPED SCOUR OUT THE AIRMASS ACROSS SE TX. PWS CURR-
ENTLY JUST UNDER AN INCH AND WITH CLOUDS LINGERING A BIT WE WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO RECHARGE BY THE LATE AFTN WHEN THE SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE IS BRINGING ANOTHER S/W OVER THE REGION.


I agree with this update but my question is for the re-firing of severe storms over the Hill Country earliar this morning after the atmosphere was really worked over previously be severe storms. In other words, how did more severe storms form over areas that were already worked over very hard?

[Extremeweatherguy]

he dynamics were there. We could see the same thing happen in our area today if...

-The front works back far enough north.
-We get good sunshine/heating.
-If the dynamics are in place.

Even if we do not see more storms today, however, the SPC and the NWS believes there is a risk of Svr. weather for us possibly tomorrow night/Monday and then again next Tuesday and beyond.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the latest 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM both show a return of storms over our area later today and this evening. May be the NWS and SPC will need to change their tune later on.