You heard it first- 6/21/06=4/11/65?

[BillyBobzWildWX]

The SPC hasn't reported any tornadoes yet...

They often don't until hours later. NWS in Grand Rapids has reported several, including one near Battle Creek. Storms are missing my area due to tight outflow boundary that's channeling it all away from here, I may go on to chase some of the Indiana stuff that will be developing, looks very good as main complex is still in Iowa so anything that develops to my east should remain discrete for the next several hours.

[CrazyC83]

Starting to crawl into Metro Detroit...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

MIC091-212245-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-060621T2245Z/
LENAWEE MI-
618 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR LENAWEE
COUNTY...

AT 614 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ADRIAN...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTH OF RIDGEWAY BY 625 PM EDT...
DEERFIELD AND BRITTON BY 630 PM EDT...

AT 613 PM...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
AND A FUNNEL CLOUD 4 MILES NORTH OF ADRIAN.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4207 8414 4196 8415 4182 8408 4183 8377
4208 8378

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
MIC115-212330-
/O.NEW.KDTX.TO.W.0004.060621T2227Z-060621T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
627 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 623 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DUNDEE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF ADRIAN...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DUNDEE BY 645 PM EDT...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO...THE SAFEST PLACE IN A HOME OR
BUSINESS IS AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE. AVOID
WINDOWS.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 65 MPH AND
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 4209 8378 4180 8378 4179 8344 4209 8346

$$

KEK / MANN

Now on the Canadian border...

[CrazyC83]

http://www.clickondetroit.com/index.html - then click on "Track 4 Live Radar"

Heavy damage reported in Adrian, MI

[CrazyC83]

Major commercial area south of Detroit under the gun...they've been sending hundreds of people into small closets...

[CrazyC83]

Widespread damage in southern Metro Detroit - likely straight-line winds.

[CrazyC83]

From the secondary storm area:

WFUS54 KAMA 212244
TORAMA
TXC195-212330-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0003.060621T2244Z-060621T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
544 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HANSFORD COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 543 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
SPEARMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPEARMAN...
GRUVER...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

LAT...LON 3634 10157 3609 10154 3611 10111 3639 10111

$$

[CrazyC83]

78 mph wind gust in Michigan City, Indiana...

[CrazyC83]

Toledo now under a Tornado Warning...

TORNADO WARNING
OHC095-220015-
/O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0006.060621T2319Z-060622T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
719 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 714 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
HOLLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
HOLLAND
OREGON
SYLVANIA
TOLEDO

THIS WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY
ISSUED FOR THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4170 8387 4171 8378 4173 8346 4170 8344
4169 8336 4172 8334 4168 8330 4163 8316
4162 8357 4153 8370 4151 8388

$$

[Stephanie]

Wow! Good call BillyBob, though THANKFULLY, it doesn't seem as severe as 4/11/65.

[BillyBobzWildWX]

Well, no, it was a bit of a bust on my part. Mostly just a wind event, a few tornadoes but mostly wind. The shearing was so impressive, with the needed instability that I was sure more storms would fire. For the most part they stayed as discrete sups, never really lined out, so from there I was right, but I didn't forsee the mesoscale being so crappy and complex. Maybe the next setup my area will get some decent severe, probably not another 4/11/65 though.

[Stephanie]

Well, no, it was a bit of a bust on my part. Mostly just a wind event, a few tornadoes but mostly wind. The shearing was so impressive, with the needed instability that I was sure more storms would fire. For the most part they stayed as discrete sups, never really lined out, so from there I was right, but I didn't forsee the mesoscale being so crappy and complex. Maybe the next setup my area will get some decent severe, probably not another 4/11/65 though.

We can ONLY HOPE we never see something along those lines again.

[wxmann_91]

Well, no, it was a bit of a bust on my part. Mostly just a wind event, a few tornadoes but mostly wind. The shearing was so impressive, with the needed instability that I was sure more storms would fire. For the most part they stayed as discrete sups, never really lined out, so from there I was right, but I didn't forsee the mesoscale being so crappy and complex. Maybe the next setup my area will get some decent severe, probably not another 4/11/65 though.

No, it really wasn't that either. The storms quickly congealed into a line after initiation in MI, probably due to the strong veered winds at the sfc. It gets more complicated after that. What was suppose to happen was discrete supercells in IN, OH, MI, and a derecho was suppose to form in IL. But subsidence in IL prevented this from happening. The outflow boundary from the MI complex caused all discrete cells forming afterwards to become elevated. Bust all around.

[Droop12]

Now onto tomorrow, SPC hinted at a possible upgrade but Im not sure about that at the moment. Not to sure what is gonna happen around here tomorrow, but KIND is saying storms tomorrow afternoon, then a heavy rain event tomorrow night, friday morning. Thoughts?

[BillyBobzWildWX]

The MCD complex screwed a lot of the Illinois stuff up. The cells in Southern MI got off to a good start, though they became more high based as they moved eastward out of the best shear environment, and seeing that at one point they were almost forming on top of each other, they were somewhat robbing each other's environments and congealing into a disorganized squall rather than surface based rotaters. Everything to the west today screwed us over, and where the outflow boundaries set up didn't exactly help for initiation over here. If initation had occured 75-100 miles to the southwest of where it did, then I contend today could have been comparable to Palm Sunday in numbers {maybe not F4+, but just as many tornadoes}.

Oh well, still have to overlook tomorrow, looks like the goods will be to our south and east, probably another shaft day.

[wxmann_91]

The MCD complex screwed a lot of the Illinois stuff up. The cells in Southern MI got off to a good start, though they became more high based as they moved eastward out of the best shear environment, and seeing that at one point they were almost forming on top of each other, they were somewhat robbing each other's environments and congealing into a disorganized squall rather than surface based rotaters. Everything to the west today screwed us over, and where the outflow boundaries set up didn't exactly help for initiation over here. If initation had occured 75-100 miles to the southwest of where it did, then I contend today could have been comparable to Palm Sunday in numbers {maybe not F4+, but just as many tornadoes}.

Oh well, still have to overlook tomorrow, looks like the goods will be to our south and east, probably another shaft day.

I'm not sure if initation had occurred further south things would've been worse. Three supercells did try to initiate further south. The southern two completely failed, and the northern one, though long-lasting, never really developed a tornadic circulation. I don't think the northern storms had any effect on these. Overall, though, I do not think a Palm Sunday situation was in the cards.