Tornado Outbreak - Southeast, January 10-11

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 101603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF EASTERN MS...NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL AL AND MIDDLE TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN LA EWD TO FL
PANHANDLE NWD TO KY...

POTENT S/WV TROUGH CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD TO ACROSS OH
VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD AS 100KT 500MB WIND MAX RED RIVER VALLEY SRN
OK MOVES TO MO BOOTHEEL BY THIS EVENING.

SURFACE LOW SWRN MO ATTM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING AS 50-60KT LLJ IS RAPIDLY INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NWD ACROSS LOWER MS INTO TN VALLEYS.

SHEAR PROFILES BECOME VERY STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY
STRETCHES SWWD THRU SRN AR INTO ERN TX. IN EARLIER OUTLOOKS THE
PRIMARY LIMITATION FOR A TORNADO THREAT WAS HOW MUCH HEATING AND
CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE. MODELS APPEAR TO BE
DEFICIENT IN SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND BREAKS NOTED IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL AL AND MID 60S
MIDDLE TN. THUS MLCAPES TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
MID AFTERNOON NWD TO CENTRAL AL ALONG WITH LITTLE CINH.

WHILE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG ASCENT WRN
TN INTO MS...MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO NRN/CENTRAL AL AND MID TN. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ALONG WITH APPROACH OF 100KT 500 MB WIND MAX
SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG /LONG TRACK TORNADOES IF DISCRETE STORMS
DEVELOP. DISCRETE STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED INTO SRN MS AND THESE
SHOULD PERSIST WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THEY TRACK NEWD.

A MORE LINER MODE SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING HOWEVER
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AFTER DARK...PARTICULARLY WITH
ANY SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS AL INTO NWRN GA.

..HALES.. 01/10/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1615Z (11:15AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

New watch coming (maybe PDS? although not in the main threat area)

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...EXTREME SWRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 16...

VALID 101611Z - 101715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 16 CONTINUES.

...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN
LA AND SRN MS...

HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS HAS SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SRN LA/MS WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS ARE NOW INTO THE UPPER 60S. WITH BREAKS NOW EVIDENT IT
APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL ONLY IMPROVE ACROSS THIS REGION ENHANCING
THE PROSPECT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RADAR DATA
SUPPORTS THIS WITH ONE STRONG SUPERCELL HAVING DEVELOPED OVER EAST
FELICIAN PARISH IN LA. WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION AND SHEAR INCREASING
ACROSS THIS REGION ANY PREFRONTAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE LONG-LIVED. TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS
THIS REGION AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM INTO
SERN MS.

..DARROW.. 01/10/2008


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

31479183 32438907 31698819 30798872 30289171

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
LAC025-029-041-107-101700-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0005.080110T1603Z-080110T1700Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1003 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CATAHOULA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN CONCORDIA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
TENSAS PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CST

* AT 1003 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO NEAR WALLACE RIDGE...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FERRIDAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LEE BAYOU BY 1015 AM CST...
COOTER POINT BY 1030 AM CST...
9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWLIGHT BY 1040 AM CST...
LAKE BRUIN BY 1045 AM CST...
NEWELLTON BY 1050 AM CST...
SOMERSET BY 1100 AM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3172 9192 3222 9134 3222 9131 3223 9126
3208 9110 3209 9114 3207 9115 3205 9113
3159 9177
TIME...MOT...LOC 1603Z 232DEG 42KT 3173 9176

$$

OLB

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, another very busy day. Looks like a good possiblity of long tracked tornados. Hopefully no one will be hurt.

[CrazyC83]

Wow, another very busy day. Looks like a good possiblity of long tracked tornados. Hopefully no one will be hurt.

We can only hope and pray.

This is a more "classic" winter setup with the Ohio Valley low, although more common in February or March.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've purchased beer in Catahoula Parish, and fished in the lake and Cowpen Bayou. Can't buy beer in LaSalle parish on Sunday.

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 101624
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-110030-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER A PART OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAJOR METROPOLITAN
AREAS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA INCLUDE BIRMINGHAM AND HUNTSVILLE
ALABAMA...JACKSON MISSISSIPPI AND NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHERN/WESTERN ALABAMA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
MIDDLE TENNESSEE

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ALABAMA...EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS ENCOUNTER STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE TORNADOES MAY
BE STRONG/LONG TRACKED GIVEN THE INTENSE NATURE OF THE SHEAR. A MORE
LINEAR THUNDERSTORM MODE SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING.
HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AFTER
DARK...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..CROSBIE/HALES.. 01/10/2008

$$

[MississippiHurricane]

wow i wake up to a tornado watch then go outside and i can tell you it feels like tornadic weather with winds gusty at times out of the south and the humidity is in the air too. i hope this will be a non event but you never know. I will be in here from time to time giving updates. HOLY CRUD!! i just saw crazy's post 0_o

[CrazyC83]

Maybe this will be upgraded again to HIGH at 2000Z?

[MississippiHurricane]

possible tornado touchdown in LA per ham radio ops.

[CrazyC83]

This could be another bad day...it's only 10:30 am and we are already seeing a lot of supercells!

I'd kill the existing watch and replace it with a new PDS watch...

[angelwing]

920 WFUS54 KJAN 101641 TORJAN MSC021-063-101730- /O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0006.080110T1641Z-080110T1730Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1041 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 1130 AM CST * AT 1041 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A TORNADO 12 MILES WEST OF ALCORN...OR ABOUT 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF FERRIDAY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ALCORN BY 1055 AM CST... PORT GIBSON BY 1105 AM CST... HERMANVILLE BY 1115 AM CST... ROCKY SPRINGS BY 1120 AM CST... 6 MILES SOUTH OF REGANTON BY 1130 AM CST... IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. LAT...LON 3186 9133 3182 9125 3187 9127 3199 9116 3203 9106 3205 9109 3205 9112 3209 9092 3212 9091 3217 9073 3194 9071 3179 9075 3177 9137 TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 250DEG 41KT 3188 9132

[Bunkertor]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1049 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

LAC107-MSC021-063-101730-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-080110T1730Z/
TENSAS LA-JEFFERSON MS-CLAIBORNE MS-
1049 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CST FOR
CLAIBORNE AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...AND SOUTHERN TENSAS
PARISH...

AT 1049 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO NEAR ST. JOSEPH AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ALCORN BY 1055 AM CST...
PORT GIBSON BY 1105 AM CST...
HERMANVILLE BY 1115 AM CST...
ROCKY SPRINGS BY 1120 AM CST...
6 MILES SOUTH OF REGANTON BY 1130 AM CST...

And it´s not even noon...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tornadic velocity signature will be in general vicinity McComb, MS soon

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tornadic velocity signature will be in general vicinity McComb, MS soon

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1050 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
AMITE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MCCOMB...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CST

* AT 1046 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
GILLSBERG...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIBERTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MAGNOLIA...MCCOMB AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF SUMMIT BY 1115 AM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

[CrazyC83]

It's only just after 11:00...long day ahead...

[Weatherfreak14]

Very big day ahead of us. This is probably going to remind me of the outbreak that hit Enterprise AL but a farther west.

[Bunkertor]

Three more warnings out

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20Warning

[CrazyC83]

000
WFUS54 KLIX 101714
TORLIX
MSC113-147-101800-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0005.080110T1713Z-080110T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1113 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL NOON CST

* AT 1111 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
MAGNOLIA...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF MCCOMB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL PIKE COUNTY AT 1130 AM CST
RURAL WALTHALL COUNTY AT 1140 AM CST

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS NEAR
70 MPH.

AT 1108 AM CST...PIKE COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
JUST WEST OF THE CITY LIMITS OF MAGNOLIA. MAGNOLIA IS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW!

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3137 9023 3119 9011 3117 9011 3100 9051
3100 9053 3102 9055 3105 9056 3119 9054
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 239DEG 30KT 3112 9047

$$

24

[Bunkertor]