Texas Summer 2016

[gpsnowman]

I'll say it again. Summer is the most boring season in Texas, especially as a weather enthusiast. Don't matter if it's 1906 or 2011. It's going to be hot, and most of the time dry. I hate summers here cool or warm. We need fall and we need it now. i remember 2013 and 2014 when July had a period of record tying cool maxes. Even then that only lasted a few days before reality kicked back in.

You and me both brother. I loathe it. As I get older, each Summer seems to take more out of me.

I know! I've lived in Texas since 1976, and I still despise the Summers.
You'd think I would be used to it by now. I tolerate and accept it, but that is because I don't have a choice. Mother Nature is Mother Nature and the latitude of this area on Earth is what it is.

Texas is great and has great people and things to do, but I have dreams in being in places with four distinct seasons and fewer water supply issues. But my job and most of my family are here, and I love both.

Amen. Texas is home and it isn't going to change anytime soon. I loathe the summers but the other 9 months are quite enjoyable. I'm lucky I spend two weeks in July in Acambaro/Mexico City every year where the weather is wet and cool to warm everyday. Fly out tomorrow as a matter of fact. It's a nice break from the heat for sure.

[Ntxw]

I was driving home and it hit me it is mid summer and amazing how green the majority of the land still was. Everybody's lawn is green, parks are green, side of the road was green. DFW hasn't hit 100 yet and if you think the green landscape has nothing to do with it you'd be wrong. I pulled up images from 2011 posted by some and it is night and day.

2011




2016 is complete 180

[Kalrany]

You and me both brother. I loathe it. As I get older, each Summer seems to take more out of me.

I know! I've lived in Texas since 1976, and I still despise the Summers.
You'd think I would be used to it by now. I tolerate and accept it, but that is because I don't have a choice. Mother Nature is Mother Nature and the latitude of this area on Earth is what it is.

Texas is great and has great people and things to do, but I have dreams in being in places with four distinct seasons and fewer water supply issues. But my job and most of my family are here, and I love both.

Amen. Texas is home and it isn't going to change anytime soon. I loathe the summers but the other 9 months are quite enjoyable. I'm lucky I spend two weeks in July in Acambaro/Mexico City every year where the weather is wet and cool to warm everyday. Fly out tomorrow as a matter of fact. It's a nice break from the heat for sure.

I agree. Jobs and migrated family are why we're here. I spent the first 26 years of my life in Michigan. This weather is painful to someone whose favorite season is winter!

[Brent]

I'll say it again. Summer is the most boring season in Texas, especially as a weather enthusiast. Don't matter if it's 1906 or 2011. It's going to be hot, and most of the time dry. I hate summers here cool or warm. We need fall and we need it now. i remember 2013 and 2014 when July had a period of record tying cool maxes. Even then that only lasted a few days before reality kicked back in.

I remember that day or two in august last year where we stayed in the 70s... it was glorious... and then summer came back.

It just never fails here... might as well just accept it lol. It's not like I haven't had hot summers all my life growing up in alabama of all places anyway.

[Ntxw]

Thunderstorms moving from north to south towards the metroplex

[gboudx]

Nice wind, rain and temps in the 70's. More please.

[Texas Snowman]

Just over three inches of rain in an hour in the Denison/Sherman area with some flash flooding.

Winds over 60 mph in Denison, marble to nickle sized hail too. Lots of trees down, some building damage in a couple of places. And the local game warden said a number of 911 calls made by boaters on Lake Texoma.

Not your garden variety summer thunderstorm.

[Brent]

Nice wind, rain and temps in the 70's. More please.

Yeah sign me up please

[Texas Snowman]

A friend of mine here in Denison reports these numbers from today's severe weather: 4.25 inches of rain this afternoon, at least three downed trees (root ball and all), at least three broken branches over one foot in diameter and too many smaller ones to count.

Other friends are still without power at 9:30 pm, some seven hours later. They say Oncor tells them it will be approximately 1:30 am before their power is restored.

[Texas Snowman]

One of my sons made this observation after the storms:

"Only in Texas can you be a few hundred miles from the Gulf and still get hit by a hurricane."

[1900hurricane]

Ha, there's a two county heat advisory in the panhandle.

[JDawg512]

The DFW region has been the big winner over the past few weeks. Those storms died out right as they were at the Williamson County border. Austin really needs to get in on some wide spread rain or we will be looking at an increasing wildfire danger yet again.

[weatherdude1108]

The DFW region has been the big winner over the past few weeks. Those storms died out right as they were at the Williamson County border. Austin really needs to get in on some wide spread rain or we will be looking at an increasing wildfire danger yet again.

No kidding. We were driving back from dinner Saturday night and I thought my eyes were playing tricks on me. Noticed flashes of light in the distance. I checked the radar and was pleasantly surprised at a line of storms and didn't know what was going on(?). But we didn't get one drop of course.


Just driving around 183, Parmer, 35, etc., the once green and lush medians and side vegetation is more brown than green now. Just takes one cigarette. I'm hoping we get in on some tropical moisture before La Nina kicks in this Fall.

[Ntxw]

The Nina is failing. We have not yet seen weekly readings at or greater than -0.5C and we are in mid July. It takes 5 trimonthlies (example JJA) or 5 consecutive 3 month periods to classify an ENSO event. We may not get it in time this year and be stuck in cold neutral like in 1983-1984

I've been looking at neutral and weak Nina's for DFW and the data points to high numbers of freezes. I'll post some numbers this evening.

[gboudx]

Sounds like I may get to use the leftover firewood from this past faux winter.

[Brent]

The Nina is failing. We have not yet seen weekly readings at or greater than -0.5C and we are in mid July. It takes 5 trimonthlies (example JJA) or 5 consecutive 3 month periods to classify an ENSO event. We may not get it in time this year and be stuck in cold neutral like in 1983-1984

I've been looking at neutral and weak Nina's for DFW and the data points to high numbers of freezes. I'll post some numbers this evening.

1983/1984 both had early ends to summer... don't tease me like that.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The Nina is failing. We have not yet seen weekly readings at or greater than -0.5C and we are in mid July. It takes 5 trimonthlies (example JJA) or 5 consecutive 3 month periods to classify an ENSO event. We may not get it in time this year and be stuck in cold neutral like in 1983-1984

I've been looking at neutral and weak Nina's for DFW and the data points to high numbers of freezes. I'll post some numbers this evening.

This may sound a big strange, and of course there are many different factors in this, but lately im starting to realize that a weak Nina or weak nino isnt so bad for us in Tx. Even SE Tx. Things are too strong either way and it can lead to rough winters for us.

Very excited that a death ridge hasnt popped up yet, still have a lot of football left but summer could be worse.

[Ntxw]

The Nina is failing. We have not yet seen weekly readings at or greater than -0.5C and we are in mid July. It takes 5 trimonthlies (example JJA) or 5 consecutive 3 month periods to classify an ENSO event. We may not get it in time this year and be stuck in cold neutral like in 1983-1984

I've been looking at neutral and weak Nina's for DFW and the data points to high numbers of freezes. I'll post some numbers this evening.

This may sound a big strange, and of course there are many different factors in this, but lately im starting to realize that a weak Nina or weak nino isnt so bad for us in Tx. Even SE Tx. Things are too strong either way and it can lead to rough winters for us.

Very excited that a death ridge hasnt popped up yet, still have a lot of football left but summer could be worse.

I'll map out the weak Nina/cold neutral years once I get off work. The weak ENSO events can produce if coupled with a cold source region. They are not influenced as strongly (such as El Nino's northern warmth, and La Nina's dry ridges) as much.

[Tireman4]

Wash, Rinse and Repeat....sigh


000
FXUS64 KHGX 110447
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR for most of the area overnight. Some MVFR ceiling development could
happen, but not confident enough to include in the TAFs. Slightly higher
(and possibly gusty) south winds can be expected tomorrow. Will keep
TAFS dry. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
Whether due to morning clouds, Saharan dust, or some combo of the
two, afternoon convection largely seemed confined to parts of
Louisiana and extreme SE Texas. In this area, there was enough
warmth around 700 mb that the atmosphere remained pretty firmly
capped. Though the sun did come out in the late afternoon, it was
too late for development, and while some locations saw a
temperature spike before the sun sank too low, many also fell a
bit short of the forecast high.

Ultimately, while this had some implications on the very first
part of the forecast, it was not significant enough to force much
significant change as far as the rest of the period goes. Looking
to tomorrow, we continue to look to be in an area of midlevel
anticyclonic vorticity advection as the trough departs and the
ridge over the Desert Southwest attempts to build back towards our
direction. As such, have kept the forecast essentially dry with
PoPs below guidance. Conversely, temperatures should tick up
slightly from today.

MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore flow and seas in the 3-5 feet range are
expected to persist over the next few days. Periods of slightly
increased winds are possible tonight and Monday night as the thermal
gradient along the coast tightens. Have issued caution flags for the
coastal waters tonight and caution flags may be needed again Monday
night. Hazy conditions will also continue through Monday across the
marine areas with a plume of Saharan dust over the western Gulf. A
secondary plume of dust may reach the western Gulf by late week.
Otherwise, expect tides within one foot of normal.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 96 78 96 77 / 10 10 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 79 96 79 95 79 / 10 10 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 92 82 91 82 / 10 10 10 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...42

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111825
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
125 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions will persist through the period. Stout
southerlies will peak in the 15G20kt range during the mid to late
afternoon hours. FEW-SCT cumulus field will disperse with loss of
heating...northern hubs will likely experience a few early AM
(pre-dawn) hours of MVFR ceilings. Overall moisture is expected to
decline through tomorrow so not expecting widespread MVFR morning
decks...more widely scattered short duration MVFR BKN north of
the city. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
No major changes planned for the morning forecast update. Mid-
level shear axis evident on water vapor imagery remains draped
across Southeast Texas this morning, with drier air slowly nudging
south behind it. While a stray shower or two will be possible
east/northeast of the Houston metro late afternoon to early
evening with peak heating, best rain chances will remain well east
of the region coincident with deeper moisture. Otherwise, expect
another hot, humid, and hazy day with highs in the low to mid 90s
today under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 78 96 79 96 79 / 0 10 10 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 91 83 91 83 / 10 10 10 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...31