Tornado outbreak February 28-March 2, 20 dead, EF4 in Kansas

[icicle]

sun has came out, my dew point has risen to 65, and temp is 72. not good.

[snoopj]

The really good ingredients haven't even hit yet. The SPC has this pegged. Next few hours are going to be interesting when all those factors start mixing.

--snoopj

[Brent]

Tornado reported in Millers Ferry in Wilcox County, AL. Impressive storm now in Dallas County approaching Selma. NWS is "very concerned" about it.

Damage reported in Florala, AL/FL border, Covington County, AL.

[JonathanBelles]

I'm starting to get really scared now that this will be a superoutbreak. How many tornadoes have happened today so far?

[snoopj]

That storm near the AL/FL border looks about ready to hit the Enterprise, AL area. Getting impressive Storm Relative Velocity values near each other -68kt/+63kt. Also, GR2Analyst includes another rotation value called NROT. Anything above 1.0 is for concern. Anything 2.5 and above is extreme. This storm has a value of 2.4.

--snoopj

[Brent]

AT 110 PM CST...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN COFFEE COUNTY ALABAMA
REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LEVEL PLAINS...OR
ABOUT NEAR ENTERPRISE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

Very impressive signature. Looks bad. Radar operator could reportedly see it.

Tornado on the ground at Fort Rucker. Pretty highly populated area.

[MScoast]

No severe weather in my county YET! however, tornado warnings popping up all around me. The winds are howling as well...gusting to 40 or so would be my guess...Stay safe everyone.

[snoopj]

Looks like the ingredients are starting to come together some more for more "classic" looking supercells. That cell in Dale County, AL looks like it's starting to get a hail core and a ragged appendage on the tail end. Still getting some high SRV values from it.

--snoopj

[isobar]

That Dale county cell is very worrisome. Long tracked. Now showing possible multiple areas of rotation. Approaching EOX radar site. May get temporary cone of silence.

[6SpeedTA95]

This is a pretty scary scenario...

[isobar]

TWC just reports school in Enterprise severely damaged. Students trapped! Ah man!

[Brent]

SPC "Very dangerous long-tracker" in Dale County, AL. VERY VERY impressive over Ozark.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST THU MAR 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46...

VALID 011940Z - 012045Z

HP SUPERCELL IN DALE COUNTY OF SERN AL WILL POSE A HIGH RISK OF A
LONG TRACK STRONG TORNADO AND VERY LARGE HAIL AS IT CONTINUES ENE AT
37 KT. A TORNADO HAS ALREADY BEEN CONFIRMED EARLIER WITH THIS STORM
IN COFFEE COUNTY. THIS STORM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SRN END OF A
LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW
IS RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED. THE SUPERCELL WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF
HENRY COUNTY IN SERN AL AND CROSS THE GA BORDER INTO EARLY AND CLAY
COUNTIES AROUND 2030Z.

[snoopj]

That Dale county cell is very worrisome. Long tracked. Now showing possible multiple areas of rotation. Approaching EOX radar site. May get temporary cone of silence.

Switch over to KEVX (Eglin AFB, FL). Still close enough to get some really good radar data.

--snoopj

[Pebbles]

http://www.wsfa.com/

This tv station is streaming live.... they just reported confirmed from 2 sources that there are children trapped in the high school gym.

[Brent]

8-mile wide long damage path, dozens of homes heavily damaged. High school also heavily damaged(where students are apparently trapped).

[JonathanBelles]

is that tornado #1 of the day?

[Brent]

is that tornado #1 of the day?

There's been a few other reports of tornadoes, but this is by far the most significant one. If these reports are true, it sounds really bad.

Possible injuries at the school per Dothan TV station through WSFA in Montgomery. Apparently the station can't get through to find out everything.

[6SpeedTA95]

SPC "Very dangerous long-tracker" in Dale County, AL. VERY VERY impressive over Ozark.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST THU MAR 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46...

VALID 011940Z - 012045Z

HP SUPERCELL IN DALE COUNTY OF SERN AL WILL POSE A HIGH RISK OF A
LONG TRACK STRONG TORNADO AND VERY LARGE HAIL AS IT CONTINUES ENE AT
37 KT. A TORNADO HAS ALREADY BEEN CONFIRMED EARLIER WITH THIS STORM
IN COFFEE COUNTY. THIS STORM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SRN END OF A
LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW
IS RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED. THE SUPERCELL WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF
HENRY COUNTY IN SERN AL AND CROSS THE GA BORDER INTO EARLY AND CLAY
COUNTIES AROUND 2030Z.

I'm watching that one on GRLevel3 right now.

[snoopj]

ALC067-012045-
/O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-070301T2045Z/
HENRY AL-
204 PM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
HENRY COUNTY...

AT 200 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ABBEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SCREAMER BY 210 PM CST...
8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALTER F. GEORGE LOCK AND DAM BY 215 PM CST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (850) 942-8833. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3170 8541 3148 8539 3151 8515 3153 8506
3160 8507 3169 8513 3175 8518 3170 8521

$$
25-CAMP

[jdray]

NWS JAX is jumping in the mix:

THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG FETCH OF MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHWARD
PROPAGATING WARM FRONT WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT FORM FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY A SQUALL LINE WHICH
WILL BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FLORIDA PORTION OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED ELEVATED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS. PERSONS WITH NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIOS SHOULD ENSURE THEIR RADIO IS IN GOOD WORKING ORDER
AND SET TO ALARM THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

Lots of energy in the air in the southeast today/tonight.
Everyone needs to keep an eye towards a weather channel/station.