Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

I am glad Guadeloupe is getting back to normal.
weather in St Maarten is still cloudy with no rain. Skies are actually a little brighter than they were this morning.
If I look at the Martinique radar, it looks like Erika is moving closer to us but very very slowly.



People here are convinced she is gone and we got nothing from her.
I hope they are not rudely surprised later in today or evening.

[cycloneye]

Good news for Dominica and Guadeloupe,TS Warnings gone

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031751
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
200 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009

...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDS CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED ERIKA
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA
AND GUADELOUPE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES...130 KM...SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND APPROACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ERIKA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ERIKA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77
INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.6N 64.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

Good news for Dominica and Guadeloupe,TS Warnings gone

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031751
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
200 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009

...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDS CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED ERIKA
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA
AND GUADELOUPE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES...130 KM...SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND APPROACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ERIKA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ERIKA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77
INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.6N 64.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

tkanks my friends Yeah orange alert has been disrupted, back to yellow code, and even green code tonight...seems that conditions are becoming more calm right now. Whereas it's premature to deny the presence of some isolated CB clouds or rains showers in vicinity.
All my prayers best wishes ans prayers go for all the Northern Leewards, BVI, and PR.
Be safe Msbee and Luis
Gustywind

[msbee]

Conditions are still quiet in St. Maarten.
It is extremely humid and very calm.
It looks like weather is starting to come in from the South but nothing much has really reached land yet.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to Tropical Depression

000
WTNT31 KNHC 032037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009

...ERIKA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ALL WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH
ERIKA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERIKA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY. ERIKA COULD ALSO
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT ANY TIME.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.7N 65.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[msbee]

Poof!

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 032038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009

THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPOSED AS A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE WANING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...BUT WERE UNABLE TO FIND ANY WINDS TO
SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STATUS. AS A RESULT...ERIKA IS DOWNGRADED TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND THE MAJORITY OF ALL THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. SINCE ERIKA SHOULD MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE
SHALLOW BAM MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.
THIS FORECAST TURNS ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...TAKING THE
CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT LOW SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER HISPANIOLA
...WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN IN 48 HOURS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT ERIKA WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
SUSTAINING ANY DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERE. ERIKA
IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND IS
FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS....ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER IF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
THE CENTER OF ERIKA COULD BECOME POORLY DEFINED AND THE CYCLONE
COULD DEVOLVE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT ANY TIME. EVEN IF ERIKA LOSES
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...ITS REMNANTS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 16.7N 65.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.2N 66.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.1N 68.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 18.9N 70.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 19.5N 72.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

Poof!

Yeah so relative good news for you and Luis glad to see that, whereas that does not mean that rain showers could not reach your island Msbee, be vigilant as usual. Keep us informed as possible we will appreciate .

[cycloneye]

Poof!

Yeah so relative good news for you and Luis glad to see that, whereas that does not mean that rain showers could not reach your island Msbee, be vigilant as usual. Keep us informed as possible we will appreciate .

Great news for us but still we have to be watching for some rain and thunder tonight and part of tommorow,however,not the amounts that was expected.

[Gustywind]

DT ERIKA...weakning trend, heading south of PR

[Gustywind]

Poof!

Yeah so relative good news for you and Luis glad to see that, whereas that does not mean that rain showers could not reach your island Msbee, be vigilant as usual. Keep us informed as possible we will appreciate .

Great news for us but still we have to be watching for some rain and thunder tonight and part of tommorow,however,not the amounts that was expected.

You're 100% right Cycloneye as well resumed the situation rain threat to monitor even the tstorms activity, hopefully the amounts should not be too important, whereas always always be on your guard we never knows. I suspect that another little round of showers is moving near Guadeloupe given the sat pic, maybe some residual rain and a few isolated tstorms...
To sum up, be safe Luis you're under the protect of your friends from the Windwards and Leewards islands:). This feature should not be so wild given its TD status but keep always an eye on this, who know better than me that the TD status does not equals to the possible damages.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

LOOKING AT AFRICA...[/b]
3 waves to monitor in the hell of Erika. The first twave get my really attention...seems pretty solid and pretty south with a 1012hpa . The others should be monitor closely too as we're in September anything can happen.

Just a personnal remark: note that for the moment 3 systems this year have found pretty decent conditions near or on the islands. Ana struggles on Guadeloupe, Bill the monster has crossed not so far from the islands and Erika on Guadeloupe. Humm something to meditate this year...Are we on the way of these perturbations? Time will tell, just Gusty's remark
[b]000
AXNT20 KNHC 031758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

......TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1012
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N AND HAS BEEN TRACKING TO
THE WNW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES
FROM BAMAKO MALI DEPICTED THAT THIS WAVE PASSED AROUND 02/1200
UTC WITH A STRONG ANOMALOUS WIND SHIFT SIGNATURE FROM THE
SURFACE TO 500 MB...INDICATIONS OF A VIGOROUS AND DEEP LAYERED
TROPICAL WAVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN
12W-24W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
13W-24W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING A LARGER AREA FROM
6N-17N BETWEEN 12W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1014
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY...HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER SURROUNDING THE WAVE...THUS INHIBITING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. MOST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM
5N-11N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TPW
IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N18W 10N30W 9N33W 9N44W 8N48W
8N60W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES IN THE TROPICAL ERN ATLC...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-44W.

...$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

SAT PICS FROM AFRICA

[Gustywind]

What do you think about this remark Luis and the others?
Just a personnal remark: note that for the moment 3 systems this year have found pretty "decent" conditions or should i say sufficient to see at least TD near or on the islands. Ana struggles on Guadeloupe as weak TD, Bill the monster has crossed not so far from the islands and weak TS Erika on Guadeloupe
Humm something to meditate this year...Are we on the way of these perturbations? Time will tell, just Gusty's remark.
Any thoughts my friends?

[expat2carib]

From Jeff Masters blog.

Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1309

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERIKA LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION BUT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

Erika steadily weakening
Posted by: JeffMasters, 19:43 GMT le 03 septembre 2009

Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1309

[Gustywind]

GREEN CODE FOR GUADELOUPE ....BYE BYE ERIKA :D

Good news in my island of Guadeloupe, yellow alert has been disrupted...so we're back to green code
Tkanks all my carib friends on this board, i appreciate all of your nice thoughts and prayers.
Time to say that i'm glad to be here since 2 years as i'm first reply was on the 3rd of September 2007, nice " BIRTHDAY" hopefully ERIKA heared me and prefers to stay modest and i'm proud to see that nothing too bad affected us in Guadeloupe. Whereas i have been amazed my the two huges floodings reported on the TV tonight: the first at Trois-Rivières and the second one at Bouillante
Off topic, here is my official date of "BIRTHDAY"
Board presence Gustywind:
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007
Nice regards from Guadeloupe, Gustywind
Hope that my presence could bring good infos, positive vibs friendly links and humor. Let's enjoy life as time goes by Que le den candela...azurca azurca !

[msbee]

2years? well, congratulations. You are indeed a positive asset to this board Gusty