Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 050002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 26W S
OF 20N MOVING W AT 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 14N26W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CLOUD MASS
FROM 9N-21N BETWEEN 23W-31W. THE WAVE IS ALSO WITHIN A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 25W-28W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 27W-30W.
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 12 KT. A 1013 MB
LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N37W. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST
TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO TO THE NE OF SURFACE LOW.
THIS SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 36W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 12 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE WITH A WEAKENING 850 MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURE IN THE CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE.
SAHARAN DUST REMAINS TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS LIMITING
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 14N20W 10N30W 8N40W
89W61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION ABOVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 7N-10N BETWEEN
30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W TO THE
W GULF NEAR 25N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 24N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT...A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER
THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF
PUERTO RICO PRODUCING SHOWERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 63W-65W.
ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN
78W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND
NW VENEZUELA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 70W-75W. EXPECT...MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N77W AND
EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 24N-32N
BETWEEN 77W-80W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 29N60W 23N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1023 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N61W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N39W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 17N56W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 20N14W. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURE
TROPICAL WAVE TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Good night all my carib friends. Those from the Northern Leewards, BVI ,PR be safe, but seems that conditions are improving steadily...consequently islands form Guadeloupe to the Northern may see the sun tommorow morning...we hope that! Bye bye Erika's remants

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.We are getting heavy rains this morning.Flash flood warnings are being issued.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC043-075-133-149-051300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0035.090905T1006Z-090905T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
606 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS BEEN REISSUED AND
EXPANDED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES AND SURROUNDING RIVERS AND STREAMS

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO
VILLALBA
JUANA DIAZ
SANTA ISABEL

* UNTIL 900 AM AST

* AT 554 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED TO MOVE
ACROSS THESE AREAS. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY RISE...
BASED ON LATEST THE USGS AND PREMA RAIN GAUGE AND RIVER SENSORS
WHICH HAD ALREADY INDICATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
SUBJECT TO FLOODING. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO AVOID ROADS WHERE
EXCESSIVE PONDING IS OBSERVED.

IN MOUNTAINOUS OR HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT
ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6652 1814 6636 1796 6638 1799 6651

$$
RAM

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC025-029-035-041-057-063-069-077-085-103-109-129-151-051300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0033.090905T1000Z-090905T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES AND THE SURROUNDING RIVERS

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS
CIDRA
CAYEY
JUNCOS
GURABO
SAN LORENZO
LAS PIEDRAS
PATILLAS
NAGUABO
CANOVANAS
GUAYAMA
HUMACAO
YABUCOA

* UNTIL 900 AM AST

* AT 555 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. MANY AREAS
HAVE OVER THOSE MUNICIPALITIES BECOME SATURATED DUE TO RECENT
RAINS AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends hope you're in better shape after Erika's trip. Sun is back in Guadeloupe for the first time this morning since Wednesday. PR is experiencing Erika's solid remnants, they have surely refired so...seems that heavy showers are racing towards Luis location. Flash flooding are issued (see previous post). Hope nothing more than heavy showers, even if the radar shows that isolated tstorms are already trying to form.
Be safe Luis. Don't forget to keep us informed as possible (weather, amounts of water, etc.). Hope Superman will be ok during this episode of heavy showers .

[Gustywind]

Looking carefully to our east...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 050527
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 275 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 29W S OF 20N
MOVING W AT 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 15N28W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N. THE
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 30W-33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
28W-31W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. A 1012
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N39W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 14N. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SAHARAN DUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH
IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION TO A SMALL AREA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
39W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE WITH NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO DRY SAHARAN DUST TO THE E OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A NARROW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N16W 15N27W 13N34W 10N43W
8N50W 8N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 16W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM NEAR 28N81W
TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W CONTINUING ALONG 28N91W 28N97W.
THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO ERN CUBA
NEAR 22N84W CONTINUING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE NW ATLC CENTERED NEAR 34N57W...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM 22N-28N E OF 85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO IN THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 87W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE WRN GULF W OF 90W AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS N THROUGH TUE AND DISSIPATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 20N BETWEEN 81W-86W IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
EXTENDING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 19N84W AND A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLC CENTERED NEAR 34N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF
THIS AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-84W OFF THE COASTS OF COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 13N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM
17N-19N BETWEEN 64W-72W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ERIKA...THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N70W
TO 22N68W. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HR...EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT NWD OUT
OF THE AREA AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W WILL REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 28N81W
CONTINUING TO 32N75W AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ENHANCED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 34N57W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
26N64W INTRUDES INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N62W
TO 30N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...EXTENDS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W TO
21N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 62W-68W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N51W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N54W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N35W TO 20N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
17N14W.

$$
WALTON

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

PRC043-075-113-133-051330-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0241.000000T0000Z-090905T1330Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-
623 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND SANTA ISABEL

* UNTIL 930 AM AST

* AT 620 AM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM PENUELAS AND YAUCO WESTWARD TO CABO ROJO
AND HORMIGUEROS. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA...RANGED
FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH 930 AM AST...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS PRODUCING ONE
OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

[Gustywind]

[size=200]LOOKING AT AFRICA...[/size]

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 050946
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SAT SEP 4 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAINT CROIX UNTIL 145
PM AST...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE NWS DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS...WITH SOME OF THEM MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER ST CROIX. THE
WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE...IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST CROIX THROUGH 145 PM AST.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING AS ROUGH SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

$$

FIGUEROA

[Gustywind]

Hi Huc any rain showers yesterday night? Nothing to report in my location since our last talk... Things are definitely improving in Guadeloupe, right now the sun is shining!!! It's a pleasure. My barometer is at 1016 hpa and you? Mine is not too higher? I tkink that it's a bit higher and i want to adjust it ( 1mb less than you as usual...)What is your latest measurement at 7AM?
Tkanks
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TOMORROW AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
739 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

PRC001-023-055-059-067-079-093-097-111-121-125-153-051500-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0243.000000T0000Z-090905T1500Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-ADJUNTAS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-
YAUCO PR-GUAYANILLA PR-GUANICA PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
PENUELAS PR-LAJAS PR-
739 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...ADJUNTAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...
YAUCO...GUAYANILLA...GUANICA...CABO ROJO...MAYAGUEZ...PENUELAS
AND LAJAS

* UNTIL 1100 AM AST

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC001-009-015-035-043-057-059-069-075-093-095-109-111-113-123-129-
133-149-151-153-051500-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0036.090905T1159Z-090905T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
759 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO
CAYEY
AIBONITO
ADJUNTAS
MARICAO
SAN LORENZO
YAUCO
VILLALBA
GUAYANILLA
ARROYO
PATILLAS
MAUNABO
GUAYAMA
HUMACAO
JUANA DIAZ
PONCE
SALINAS
SANTA ISABEL
PENUELAS
YABUCOA

* UNTIL 1100 AM AST

* AT 755 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH RATES UP TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR
LIKELY. SEVERAL REPORTS OF DESTRUCTIVE FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED ALREADY. TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC021-029-031-033-037-053-061-087-089-103-119-127-135-137-139-
051515-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0037.090905T1210Z-090905T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
810 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON
TOA ALTA
TRUJILLO ALTO
LUQUILLO
NAGUABO
GUAYNABO
CEIBA
CANOVANAS
FAJARDO
CAROLINA
CATANO
SAN JUAN
LOIZA
RIO GRANDE
TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 1115 AM AST

* AT 807 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH RATES UP TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR
LIKELY. SEVERAL REPORTS OF DESTRUCTIVE FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED ALREADY. TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

[Gustywind]

Just looking at the sat pic of Meteo-France, seems that a tiny blob or area with very concentrated convection is maybe firing up just east of Barbados?!. Even CB clouds maybe given the white color of these clouds.
Anyone noticied that?


This area is so tiny but it could bring showers and possible tstorms on Barbados.
Just an observation, i will be glad to have some infos and observations from Barbados, thus my carib friends.
I don't have the link for the weather observations in the islands, i lost it recently...

[Gustywind]

Just looking at the sat pic of Meteo-France, seems that a tiny blob or area with very concentrated convection is maybe firing up just east of Barbados?!. Even CB clouds maybe given the white color of these clouds.
Anyone noticied that?









This area is so tiny but it could bring showers and possible tstorms on Barbados.
Just an observation.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Abajan any link for Barbados weather condition, Caribsue too?
What's the weather like in your island?
Did you noticied this tiny area?
Tkanks