Texas Fall 2018

[bubba hotep]

The run-to-run changes on the Euro beyond Day 5 are just silly.

Last couple of GFS runs have been wetter.

[Ralph's Weather]

The 18Z GFS is interesting around 12/8 though other models show other solutions. This looks to be a split flow set up with a NE Pacific ridge and a shortwave undercutting the ridge.

[Brent]

this pattern can't change soon enough. This is boring.

Remember when Friday was a good rain event?

[Cpv17]

18z GFS has a really nice rain event on Friday, December 7th for basically the whole state.

[SnowintheFalls]

0z GFS shows the moisture for the system on December 7/8 but will the cold materialize?

Edit: Looks like it is a continuance from the 18z as stated above.

[Brent]

0z GFS shows the moisture for the system on December 7/8 but will the cold materialize?

Edit: Looks like it is a continuance from the 18z as stated above.

good rain event but not cold enough

We'll see, lately even the good rain events have been lacking

[Cpv17]

0z GFS shows the moisture for the system on December 7/8 but will the cold materialize?

Edit: Looks like it is a continuance from the 18z as stated above.

good rain event but not cold enough

We'll see, lately even the good rain events have been lacking

I’d take rain at this point. I have heard that the fun stuff won’t really start till late December and will last through February so I’m not really expecting anything till then.

[Brent]

0z GFS shows the moisture for the system on December 7/8 but will the cold materialize?

Edit: Looks like it is a continuance from the 18z as stated above.

good rain event but not cold enough

We'll see, lately even the good rain events have been lacking

I’d take rain at this point. I have heard that the fun stuff won’t really start till late December and will last through February so I’m not really expecting anything till then.

I'll be glad to see a good rain too but I hope the fun doesn't keep getting pushed back, I mean what happened to early/mid December?

[Cpv17]

good rain event but not cold enough

We'll see, lately even the good rain events have been lacking

I’d take rain at this point. I have heard that the fun stuff won’t really start till late December and will last through February so I’m not really expecting anything till then.

I'll be glad to see a good rain too but I hope the fun doesn't keep getting pushed back, I mean what happened to early/mid December?

There’s a guy named Larry Cosgrove (usually he’s pretty good) and I like to read his weekly newsletters & he’s been adamant about winter not really getting going till late December or January for a while now.

[Brent]

another Great Plains blizzard this weekend on the Euro, just what they need

big rain event like the GFS at day 9 but way too warm

[Cpv17]

another Great Plains blizzard this weekend on the Euro, just what they need

big rain event like the GFS at day 9 but way too warm

I’ll be one happy camper if that rain event verifies because it gives me over 2” lol but I’m not getting my hopes up about anything I see on the models unless it’s inside of 5 days.

[Ralph's Weather]

The system around the 8th is very interesting. There is potential for a closed low traversing along the US/MX border with a -EPO supplying the cold air. I'll take my chances with that setup over just about any other fur snow in Texas. Just have to be patient we have been talking up early Dec for a month now and nothing has changed in my thinking on it during that time. Following this system I still expect a mid month warm up. Really is amazing how clear this pattern was from so far out.

[weatherdude1108]

This is an interesting setup on and around December 7th on the 6Z GFS. Take your pic of Texas weather.



QPF "waterfall" traversing near Hondo, between San Antonio and Austin, to north of Houston.

[bubba hotep]

Models continue to trend wetter for Texas in the long range, which matches up with the progression of the Pacific. Maybe this was a case of the models rushing things and being too aggressive with this 1st system. However, this 1st system is trending wetter for parts of DFW, just not the wide spread rain event that was shown earlier.

Also, SPC has portions of DFW in D3 Slight:

[Brent]

Models continue to trend wetter for Texas in the long range, which matches up with the progression of the Pacific. Maybe this was a case of the models rushing things and being too aggressive with this 1st system. However, this 1st system is trending wetter for parts of DFW, just not the wide spread rain event that was shown earlier.

Also, SPC has portions of DFW in D3 Slight:

https://i.ibb.co/Jndr44q/TX-swody3.png

I can't even remember the last thunderstorm

[weatherdude1108]

Models continue to trend wetter for Texas in the long range, which matches up with the progression of the Pacific. Maybe this was a case of the models rushing things and being too aggressive with this 1st system. However, this 1st system is trending wetter for parts of DFW, just not the wide spread rain event that was shown earlier.

Also, SPC has portions of DFW in D3 Slight:

https://i.ibb.co/Jndr44q/TX-swody3.png

I can't even remember the last thunderstorm

I know! The last rain event here a few weeks ago had maybe two claps of thunder the entire event. I'm ready for it to rain again. I already have surface cracks in my backyard soil that have developed, even with the multi-inch rains in September and October.

[Cpv17]

I wouldn’t get too excited about any rain event the models are showing this far out. Just a couple weeks ago the models were showing a widespread event for southeast TX of 3-6” just one week out before the event. Then by 5 days out the totals were cut in half. Then 3 days out the totals were again cut in half. All we ended up getting was around a quarter to half an inch in most places. So it went from 3-6” to .25-.50”.

[Haris]

Yeah bring back the rain! I am so sick of our extreme rain patterns. It really is either feast or famine. Would love an inch every week . Ideal

[Cpv17]

Yeah bring back the rain! I am so sick of our extreme rain patterns. It really is either feast or famine. Would love an inch every week . Ideal

Amen!

I see the GFS is back to giving us a bunch of rain. Please don’t be wrong again

[dhweather]

Yeah bring back the rain! I am so sick of our extreme rain patterns. It really is either feast or famine. Would love an inch every week . Ideal

Amen!

I see the GFS is back to giving us a bunch of rain. Please don’t be wrong again

That's only >200 hours out, what's the worst that could happen?