STORM2K

TXC001-254
BULLETIN
WXMAN57 WEATHER SERVICE
HOUSTON TX 7:20PM CST WED NOV 28 2018

The WXMAN57 Weather Service in Houston has issued a WINTER CANCEL WATCH for the entire state of Texas. A Winter Cancel Watch means that conditions are favorable for cancelling Winter. If a WINTER CANCEL WARNING is issued, be prepared for illogical and erratic posts on storm2k.

ZZZZ

$$

dhweather wrote:TXC001-254
BULLETIN
WXMAN57 WEATHER SERVICE
HOUSTON TX 7:20PM CST WED NOV 28 2018

The WXMAN57 Weather Service in Houston has issued a WINTER CANCEL WATCH for the entire state of Texas. A Winter Cancel Watch means that conditions are favorable for cancelling Winter. If a WINTER CANCEL WARNING is issued, be prepared for illogical and erratic posts on storm2k.

ZZZZ

$$

Hey it worked last year for some people anyway

I know we can always use rain but it is a bit disheartening seeing all the moisture and no cold. Just feels like such a missed opportunity by Mother Nature.

SnowintheFalls wrote:I know we can always use rain but it is a bit disheartening seeing all the moisture and no cold. Just feels like such a missed opportunity by Mother Nature.

then when it was cold there was no moisture to be found and next week is looking like a repeat

Just so irritating

Brent wrote:

SnowintheFalls wrote:I know we can always use rain but it is a bit disheartening seeing all the moisture and no cold. Just feels like such a missed opportunity by Mother Nature.

then when it was cold there was no moisture to be found and next week is looking like a repeat

Just so irritating

It just goes to show you how difficult it is to get snow this far south and makes it that much more special when we actually do see it.

Man, the Euro and GFS are so much different from each other with that storm system next week.

I like how the Euro is really cold the entirety of next week except the one day there's moisture

Granted, I know its not technically winter yet, but this season, at least in this part of the state is starting off like every other warm and dry winter. #kindasummer

The 12z GFS and CMC are trending in the right direction... on the previous runs the GFS had any frozen precipitation associated with next weeks potential storm in the central plains,now it has the frozen line along the I-40 corridor. The CMC fwiw also now shows frozen precipitation with next weeks storm but has the line even further south into the DFW area. One thing that I have noticed is the GFS consistency of very heavy rain for the last few days but being around 180+ hours out alot can change ofcourse,just something to watch for now.

Some of last nights Euro ensembles would make the DFW folks happy, some other ensembles would make Brent cry.

The 12z FV3 GFS also trended in the right direction with frozen precip down to the I-20 corridor fwiw

wxman22 wrote:The 12z FV3 GFS also trended in the right direction with frozen precip down to the I-20 corridor fwiw

Yep, I'm really liking what I'm seeing for late next week....just need that HP in the 1035+ range and should be decent frozen precip for the southern plains. Obviously, the stronger the HP, the further south the frozen precip shield. Watch the strength of the HP coming down the central plains on subsequent model runs!!

That is a monster winter storm from the southern plains to the mid-atlantic on the FV3

Cpv17 wrote:

Brent wrote:

SnowintheFalls wrote:I know we can always use rain but it is a bit disheartening seeing all the moisture and no cold. Just feels like such a missed opportunity by Mother Nature.

then when it was cold there was no moisture to be found and next week is looking like a repeat

Just so irritating

It just goes to show you how difficult it is to get snow this far south and makes it that much more special when we actually do see it.

I'm fine with a sleet storm at this point. It sort of looks like snow....messes everything up like snow.....I get to stay home from work..so yeah.

orangeblood wrote:

wxman22 wrote:The 12z FV3 GFS also trended in the right direction with frozen precip down to the I-20 corridor fwiw

Yep, I'm really liking what I'm seeing for late next week....just need that HP in the 1035+ range and should be decent frozen precip for the southern plains. Obviously, the stronger the HP, the further south the frozen precip shield. Watch the strength of the HP coming down the central plains on subsequent model runs!!

That is a monster winter storm from the southern plains to the mid-atlantic on the FV3

What's the timeframe for the Mid-Atlantic? Is it an NYC hit? I'm going to be there Dec 7-11 so hoping to at least see some snow while I'm there, since it's so rare here.

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:

orangeblood wrote:

wxman22 wrote:The 12z FV3 GFS also trended in the right direction with frozen precip down to the I-20 corridor fwiw

Yep, I'm really liking what I'm seeing for late next week....just need that HP in the 1035+ range and should be decent frozen precip for the southern plains. Obviously, the stronger the HP, the further south the frozen precip shield. Watch the strength of the HP coming down the central plains on subsequent model runs!!

That is a monster winter storm from the southern plains to the mid-atlantic on the FV3

What's the timeframe for the Mid-Atlantic? Is it an NYC hit? I'm going to be there Dec 7-11 so hoping to at least see some snow while I'm there, since it's so rare here.

Dec. 8th-9th

12Z Euro trending further south as well....good trends this morning!!!

Euro is so close to a DFW winter storm next Friday

Brent wrote:Euro is so close to a DFW winter storm next Friday

Yep, Patience! typically a really good sign to see the winter storm in Oklahoma in the 7-8 day range....as models trend further south as they begin picking up on the cold

Keep an eye on severe weather for tomorrow too. I'll admit this one snuck up on me, and it always seem like the worst ones come out of left field, so keep your guard up. Immediate DFW is in an enhanced risk (hail sig 30%/wind 30%, tor 10%) in the most recent outlook, which is an upgrade and expansion westward for the metroplex. NAM 3k initiates convection east of the metro, but the noticeable negative tilt of the storm system as whole has my attention. HREF guidance appears to be why the SPC expanded the risk area west.

SPC:
The 12z/29 deterministic members of the HREF
ensemble suggest little if any convection near the DFW metro prior
to 00z. The 12z/29 NAM appears to be driving the HREF-based
solution with storm development farther east within the warm
conveyer near the Arklatex during the late afternoon. This forecast
update is trending higher severe probabilities farther west near
I-35 based on the EC/GFS/RAP suggesting warmer surface temperatures
compared to a too-cool solution by the NAM.

This week has been very cold. More like the heart of winter than late fall. We're going to have a nice warm up the next few days, but man, the Euro is scaring me for next weekend. Highs in the single digits next weekend on the 12z run. I'm not ready for that kind of cold.

TheProfessor wrote:This week has been very cold. More like the heart of winter than late fall. We're going to have a nice warm up the next few days, but man, the Euro is scaring me for next weekend. Highs in the single digits next weekend on the 12z run. I'm not ready for that kind of cold.

Well that’s what you get for living so far north lol it’s inevitable.