Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April

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srainhoutx
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Re:

#221 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 10, 2009 10:28 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Wow, this is getting started in a hurry! High risk at 1630Z?


Could be...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1020 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN STEWART COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 1019 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 32 MILES WEST OF
TENNESSEE RIDGE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF TENNESSEE RIDGE BY 1115 AM CDT...
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Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April

#222 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 10, 2009 10:29 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1020 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHEASTERN TRIGG COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 1017 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL JUST WEST OF GRACEY.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CADIZ...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CROFTON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TNC017-023-039-077-113-101600-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0042.090410T1522Z-090410T1600Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1022 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
EAST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1022 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIFFLIN...OR 6
MILES NORTH OF HENDERSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JACKS
CREEK...BLUE GOOSE...REAGAN...BARGERTON...LEXINGTON...
WILDERSVILLE...NATCHEZ TRACE STATE PARK...NATCHEZ TRACE STATE
FOREST...PARSONS...DECATURVILLE AND DARDEN. THIS WARNING ALSO
INCLUDES BEECH LAKE...PIN OAK LAKE AND PINE LAKE.
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#223 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 10, 2009 10:34 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101530Z - 101630Z

THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS
WITH STORMS OVER N CNTRL KY. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.

STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS N
CNTRL KY. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IS ON NRN FRINGE OF THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND THE NWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
IN WAKE OF THE ELEVATED STORMS. ANY SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL
RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER TODAY WHEN
A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.

..DIAL.. 04/10/2009


ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON 37728418 37488529 37578666 38038690 38128532 38448401
37728418
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Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April

#224 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 10, 2009 10:35 am

Live streaming out of Nashville...

http://www.wtvf.com
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Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April

#225 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 10, 2009 10:40 am

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101530Z - 101630Z

THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS
WITH STORMS OVER N CNTRL KY. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.

STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS N
CNTRL KY. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IS ON NRN FRINGE OF THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND THE NWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
IN WAKE OF THE ELEVATED STORMS. ANY SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL
RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER TODAY WHEN
A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.

..DIAL.. 04/10/2009


ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...PAH...
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#226 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 10, 2009 10:49 am

Soundings look REALLY ominous now. I'm trying to find the 15Z RUC.
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#227 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 10, 2009 10:59 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH MIDDLE TN...WRN THROUGH S CNTRL
KY...NRN MS AND NRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...

VALID 101553Z - 101730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CONTINUES
ACROSS A PORTION OF WRN TN...WRN KY AND NRN MS. THE THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO MIDDLE TN...S CNTRL KY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT PARTS OF NRN AL
WHERE A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

STORMS THAT ORIGINALLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAVE MOSTLY
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...NEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WRM SECTOR OVER
WRN TN AND NRN MS ALONG CLOUD STREETS WITHIN WARM SECTOR JUST EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY. DESPITE MORE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NWD EXTENT INTO
KY...COLD TEMPERATURE ALONG WILL MAINTAIN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
FROM MS NEWD THROUGH WRN AL INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING VORT MAX...NWD ADVECTION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION NEXT FEW HOURS. BULK SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

..DIAL.. 04/10/2009


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 37068617 35768586 34838589 34338777 34598948 35878869
37108851 37068617
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#228 Postby Bunkertor » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:11 am

Spooky Jackson 12 z sounding
Image
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#229 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:15 am

Luckily in that sounding, there is a bit of cap left. But if that disappears, we could have a HUGE outbreak.
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#230 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:17 am

There is some good news and bad news. Many people are off work today, but quite a few will be at churches at various times - do they have the weather radios and safety areas?
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#231 Postby btangy » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:21 am

RUC mesoanalysis shows cap eroding in N and C MS ahead of a boundary. Storms will become surface based soon in this region with CAPE > 2500, energy helicity > 6, and significant tornado param > 6, violent, long track tornadoes may form with any isolated supercells. I believe SPC will extend the moderate risk further W at the very least. Wouldn't be surprised to see a small area of high risk given these indices are way up there and there is decent clearing occurring in the warm sector.
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Re:

#232 Postby Bunkertor » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:23 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Luckily in that sounding, there is a bit of cap left. But if that disappears, we could have a HUGE outbreak.


I´d put a MD on that, but, they ve got lots of work to do. Or maybe some uncertainties
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#233 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:24 am

New watch - possibly PDS - coming.
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Re:

#234 Postby Dave » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:24 am

CrazyC83 wrote:There is some good news and bad news. Many people are off work today, but quite a few will be at churches at various times - do they have the weather radios and safety areas?


Not sure about other places but it's mandatory here in our area for all churches to have noaa radio's and they also serve as shelters as well.

Warm, temp & dewpoint climbing in SE Indiana, sunshine, and may be interesting here later as well. Just read the posts above and will be around for awhile this afternoon.
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Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April

#235 Postby Bunkertor » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:25 am

srainhoutx wrote:Live streaming out of Nashville...

http://www.wtvf.com


Unfortunately not working for me.
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#236 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:30 am

1630Z: Staying with MDT risk
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Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April

#237 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:31 am

First PDS watch of 2009.

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHWEST GEORGIA
MIDDLE AND PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF CROSSVILLE
TENNESSEE TO 55 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 131...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EWD ACROSS TN VLY AREA AND INTO NRN MIDDLE AND PARTS OF ERN
TN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS MODESTLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE
TN VLY ATTM. GIVEN LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MODEST TO STRONG
ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIST REGION OF 80KT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS MAGNITUDE OF
VERTICAL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AL/SRN MIDDLE TN THIS
AFTERNOON. FCST HODOGRAPHS IN THIS CORRIDOR SUGGEST HIGH POSSIBILITY
OF A STRONG TORNADO IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN MOVE INTO THIS AREA AS
ANTICIPATED.
FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS MIDDLE TN...TORNADO THREAT WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED NEAR LINE/RETREATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT FEW
HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26045.


...CARBIN
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Re: Severe Weather Potential - Thursday 9th - Sunday 12th April

#238 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:34 am

SPC AC 101623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF
TN...KY...AL...GA...NC...SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/SRN
APPALACHIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

OVERALL SETUP CONTINUES TO FAVOR A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN RIVER VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS
AND ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING.
MORNING MODELS AND OBSERVED
DATA TRENDS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGES ARE NECESSARY TO THE OUTLOOK.
15Z SURFACE MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FAR UPSTATE SC/NRN GA NWWD INTO N-CENTRAL AL
AND MIDDLE TN. THIS BOUNDARY HAS CREATED AN AXIS OF GREATER
MOISTURE /I.E. 60+F SFC DEW POINTS/ AND RESULTANT MLCAPE NOSING INTO
MIDDLE TN LATE THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
SUPPORTING INCREASED MIXING AND VEERED SURFACE WINDS WITHIN WARM
SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF MS INTO FAR NWRN AL...AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

INTENSE/DEEP ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW IS FOCUSING MOST
ROBUST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING FROM WRN KY
INTO FAR NRN MS. GREATEST BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS/SHEAR WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY NWD TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL KY. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN
ABOUT NWD EXTENT OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY BE TRAPPED
FROM FAR S-CENTRAL KY SWD AS TRIPLE POINT SHIFTS ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
REGARDLESS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AND SUPPORT AT LEAST A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES NWD TOWARDS
THE OH RIVER WITH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFFSETTING
MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE. THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND NE-SW ORIENTED BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS SRN/MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG AND/OR LONGER-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ATTM...APPEARS
SRN-MIDDLE/SERN TN AND NRN AL/NWRN GA WILL SEE GREATEST RISK OF
DAMAGING TORNADOES.


S-SWWD EXTEND OF DEVELOPMENT INTO MS AND CENTRAL AL REMAINS MORE
CONDITIONAL AS STRONGEST DEEP ASCENT AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE REMAIN
WEAKER THAN POINTS FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL BE QUITE
STRONG /DESPITE THE MORE SWLY SURFACE WINDS/ AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
AND/OR SMALL BOWING LINES AS FRONT SETTLES SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE UVV AHEAD OF UPPER VORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN E OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
CAROLINAS/SRN VA BY LATER TONIGHT. BUT...WEAKER
DESTABILIZATION...ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN AND ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING...MAY MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NC COAST...GIVEN AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND
POSSIBILITY OF MODEST SBCAPE.

..EVANS/SMITH.. 04/10/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1633Z (12:33PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#239 Postby Dave » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:34 am

Image
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#240 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:50 am

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 101631
ALZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-110030-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...MISSISSIPPI NORTH
AND EAST INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINA...AND
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.

THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM THAT PRODUCED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
EXTREME WILD FIRE CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE STORM......WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO ALABAMA... GEORGIA...EAST
TENNESSEE...AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS.

AT THE SAME TIME...A SEPARATE BAND OF VERY STRONG JET STREAM WINDS
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS/SUPERCELLS AS DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATER TODAY. THE EXPECTED
INTENSITY OF THE STORMS...AND THEIR LIKELY LONGEVITY ...SUGGESTS
THAT SOME COULD YIELD STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IN THE CAROLINAS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..EVANS.. 04/10/2009

$$
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