Texas Fall-2015

[TheProfessor]

Looks like the 12z GFS has gotten a reality check and basically scraps the major winter storm all the way to the gulf coast for Thanksgiving weekend. The 00z Euro was a lot warmer than even the 12z (ex: DFW never goes below freezing next weekend.) Don't get too excited yet, after all it's just November .

I don't buy the run's DFW doesn't get to freezing. Run of the mill front this weekend is getting us to freezing.

Unfortunately for me, this is right around the time period the GFS likes to drop our winter storms we have had the past few years.
Seemed like the past 2 years when we got a Winter storm it would show up 10 days out, then by day 7 it would drop then it would pick ut back up in the medium range around 4-5 days out. Hope that's not the case this time.

[Ntxw]

A lot of emphasis on the cold side, the EPAC hurricane could be a doozy if guidance is correct. We may be looking at another major potential cat 3 or more. Usually when you get all the globals showing the same thing it signals a very big hurricane

[TheProfessor]

A lot of emphasis on the cold side, the EPAC hurricane could be a doozy if guidance is correct. We may be looking at another major potential cat 3 or more. Usually when you get all the globals showing the same thing it signals a very big hurricane

Would the strength of the Hurrican determine whether or not how easy moisture could lift north? Because the 12z GFS kind of squashed the hurricane, though that might be due to the Mexican Mountains.

[Ntxw]

A lot of emphasis on the cold side, the EPAC hurricane could be a doozy if guidance is correct. We may be looking at another major potential cat 3 or more. Usually when you get all the globals showing the same thing it signals a very big hurricane

Would the strength of the Hurrican determine whether or not how easy moisture could lift north? Because the 12z GFS kind of squashed the hurricane, though that might be due to the Mexican Mountains.

Not the low level moisture of the Hurricane and surface low. The mountains will squash that. It's the streaming higher moisture from the open Ocean that effects us

[Shoshana]

Did you guys see the last GFS run!!!!!!???????????????????????????? ICE DOWN TO THE COAST!!!!! (hour 192) SNOWSTORM FOR ME & PORTA!!!!!! Ok, I'm calm now. Breathing. Going to the Farmer's Market. With a skip in my step!!!!!

LOL! Frozen precip in Austin! I will believe it when it falls on my head!

[JDawg512]

Did you guys see the last GFS run!!!!!!???????????????????????????? ICE DOWN TO THE COAST!!!!! (hour 192) SNOWSTORM FOR ME & PORTA!!!!!! Ok, I'm calm now. Breathing. Going to the Farmer's Market. With a skip in my step!!!!!

LOL! Frozen precip in Austin! I will believe it when it falls on my head!

Agreed. I don't pay attention to the models this far out when it comes to wintery precipitation here. Seems like too many times up to 24 hours out they may show winter precipitation but in the end it's just a cold rain or our regular visitor...freezing drizzle...

[TheProfessor]

I'm not sure if you guys were watching the Ohio State game, but sleet started to mix with the heavier precip and wind gusts of 50mph started to occur, I had to leave early, it was a mess. My hands are still frozen.

[TarrantWx]

12z and 18z GFS are showing the arctic high pushing the moisture into central and south Texas where temperatures are mostly too warm for freezing or frozen precip except on the northern edge of the precip. 12z CMC, however, shows rain switching to ice along and west of the I-35 corridor (similar to its 0z run) continuing through the weekend, being enhanced on Sunday by the moisture from Sandra-to-be in the E Pac before the whole mess moves to the east and temperatures plummet into the teens by Tuesday morning.

It seems that 2 things are certain - we're going to get some arctic air and there will be precipitation. The big question here is the timing. Knowing the models tendency to underestimate the push of arctic air I'm inclined to believe the GFS over the CMC at this time as much as I'd like to be wrong. However, the future track of Sandra-to-be is also going to be critical to seeing where her moisture winds up.

[gpsnowman]

I'm not sure if you guys were watching the Ohio State game, but sleet started to mix with the heavier precip and wind gusts of 50mph started to occur, I had to leave early, it was a mess. My hands are still frozen.

Come on man. The temp in Columbus is in the low forties at the moment. I do have the game on and it doesn't seem that bad. You have to tough these things out! It is college football in Columbus, in late November! It is supposed to be cold, wet, and blustery. You are about to experience what winter can actually bring living in Ohio. Texas is nothing in comparison. While you are witnessing snow, ice, frozen rivers, and below zero temps, us Texans will be living vicariously through you. Keep us posted!

[Ralph's Weather]

As typical the GFS is way underestimating the power of -EPO on surface temps. I think it is keeping the majority of the moisture south because it has the trough being progressive and not digging into the SW thus no real SW flow.

[TheProfessor]

I'm not sure if you guys were watching the Ohio State game, but sleet started to mix with the heavier precip and wind gusts of 50mph started to occur, I had to leave early, it was a mess. My hands are still frozen.

Come on man. The temp in Columbus is in the low forties at the moment. I do have the game on and it doesn't seem that bad. You have to tough these things out! It is college football in Columbus, in late November! It is supposed to be cold, wet, and blustery. You are about to experience what winter can actually bring living in Ohio. Texas is nothing in comparison. While you are witnessing snow, ice, frozen rivers, and below zero temps, us Texans will be living vicariously through you. Keep us posted!

Yeah, but I was 100 feet in the air and it was windy, I didn't have gloves, my shoes and pants were soaked, I would had been fine had it been snow, but cold rain is worse than snow imo.

[hriverajr]

Well this is what we know for next weekend.

1. It's probably going to get fairly cold.
2. There will be moisture.

My experience would tell me that more than likely their might be a chance of mixed precipitation from north of Del Rio to west of San Antonio. Thats all I can really say at this time. Models continue to waffle back and forth. Should make for some interesting conversation though.



Please refer to official sources for forecasts. This is my opinion only.

[DonWrk]

Yeah, but I was 100 feet in the air and it was windy, I didn't have gloves, my shoes and pants were soaked, I would had been fine had it been snow, but cold rain is worse than snow imo.

Not check the forecast before the game and wear some rain gear?

[TheProfessor]

Yeah, but I was 100 feet in the air and it was windy, I didn't have gloves, my shoes and pants were soaked, I would had been fine had it been snow, but cold rain is worse than snow imo.

Not check the forecast before the game and wear some rain gear?

I wore Rain Gear for my upper body, but I didn't have gloves, I can't wear Ponchos because I'm allergic to the materials.

[Ntxw]

Outside of next weekend, all guidance generally agree it's going to be a wet Thanksgiving for most. Especially the second half of the day. Many areas will receive 2-4" of rain.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, but I was 100 feet in the air and it was windy, I didn't have gloves, my shoes and pants were soaked, I would had been fine had it been snow, but cold rain is worse than snow imo.

Not check the forecast before the game and wear some rain gear?

I wore Rain Gear for my upper body, but I didn't have gloves, I can't wear Ponchos because I'm allergic to the materials.

Whoo boy ... you're not even through the first inning of winter up there. Wait until it's 10 degrees with a below zero windchill and you've got to walk to class. Today was nothing. And I know. I grew up there.

It's Big Ten football weather. Enjoy it!

[TheProfessor]

it's not really the cold that was getting to me, I was here last year when it was 13 degrees and was fine, It was getting wet, There wasn't a way for me to protect my legs and feet. being soaked in 40 degrees weather is worse than being dry when 10 degrees imo.

[Ntxw]

Graphics from the CPC top is TG week, bottom is week 2

[Brent]

GFS has a winter storm out towards Abilene and west and a cold miserable rain in DFW and everywhere else along I-35 next Friday and Saturday

[Ralph's Weather]

The precip will be here for Fri and Sat we will just have to watch temps.
For right now I am almost down to freezing already, I could see my house making the 20s by morning.