Texas Fall-2015

[orangeblood]

Besides the potential flooding and maybe some winter weather for the Panhandle this weekend there does not look to be much of anything exciting in the models.

Yeah, unfortunately after this coming weekend, the Pacific Air onslaught appears to take hold for the next few weeks. Canada will be baking with temps averaging 15-20 above normal. Only driver for cold air will have to come from above

[hriverajr]

No nothing much exciting after this weekend according to models... oh well

[Ralph's Weather]

Only hope is for something out of the SW or Mexico, but nothing specific on the models. Should be a bunch of days with temps ranging from 45 to 60 with showers every few days. After Christmas is when things could start to get interesting if we can get the expected periods of -AO.

[Ntxw]

#ElNino climo

Quite a bit of it.

I'm actually interested in breaking the annual rainfall at DFW and hoping we will do it this weekend, with December left to add on.

[Tireman4]

#ElNino climo

Quite a bit of it.

I'm actually interested in breaking the annual rainfall at DFW and hoping we will do it this weekend, with December left to add on.

You know..hint hint...there is a paper to be had ( or done) for this El Nino....

[TheProfessor]

I think this might be the first time I've seen it so wet for Thanksgiving for such a huge area, usually at this time of year it's drier in Northeast Kansas, but they have a chance for rain/freezing rain in the forecast starting Tuesday night going till Monday.

[Ntxw]

#ElNino climo

Quite a bit of it.

I'm actually interested in breaking the annual rainfall at DFW and hoping we will do it this weekend, with December left to add on.

You know..hint hint...there is a paper to be had ( or done) for this El Nino....

You know, per Ryan Maue, the Euro is going 7km... that's quite high resolution for this winter in parallel runs. That's like high res NAM stuff. We'll be able to see wxman57 (a little blurry) sunbathing in his front lawn this winter from the model!

Some totals for latest guidance in rainfall (while temps mostly in upper 30s/40s) as of 0z/6z for gfs

Euro
DFW-5.3 inches
KIAH-3.6 inches
KAUS-2.9 inches

GFS
DFW-5.2 inches
KIAH-1.3 inches
KAUS-3.5 inches



Side note, I'll have to dig but it looks like Gainesville/Corsicana may be over 70" and one or both of those stations may set a record for highest total any year anywhere in FW forecasting area I believe is held by Paris, TX somewhere in the 70-75" range.

[Portastorm]

Both the 0z Euro and the 0z and 6z GFS suggest a consistent amount of 2-3" of rain for the I-35 corridor counties in south central Texas. GFS seems to be less progressive with the front compared to the Euro. Of course the wild card will be the E-Pac system. Right now it seems like you folks in north Texas will have a better line on that moisture than we will. But we still have a ways to go on this one.

[Ntxw]

Both the 0z Euro and the 0z and 6z GFS suggest a consistent amount of 2-3" of rain for the I-35 corridor counties in south central Texas. GFS seems to be less progressive with the front compared to the Euro. Of course the wild card will be the E-Pac system. Right now it seems like you folks in north Texas will have a better line on that moisture than we will. But we still have a ways to go on this one.

From FW disco

THIS MOISTURE AND
THE MOIST ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME SITUATED ALONG A DFW TO DEL RIO LINE. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
CONTINUING OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.


Where the best upper lift meets the moisture. I think you folks in central Texas will be convective in nature and more spread out, but these can really dump hard and fast in an area where they sit. Regardless for November anything more than an inch is quite anomalous. Normals are only a bit wetter than July.

[Ntxw]

Water vapor loop, you can depict quite clearly the subtropical jet feed as well as Sandra

[srainhoutx]

Both the 0z Euro and the 0z and 6z GFS suggest a consistent amount of 2-3" of rain for the I-35 corridor counties in south central Texas. GFS seems to be less progressive with the front compared to the Euro. Of course the wild card will be the E-Pac system. Right now it seems like you folks in north Texas will have a better line on that moisture than we will. But we still have a ways to go on this one.

Still a lot of uncertainty exactly where that inverted trough at 700/850mb establishes its self. If the cold air is a bit denser or colder than currently expected, a shift SE could be possible. What is worrisome...we may not know until Friday into Saturday where that inverted trough sets up. That will be the avenue or track of the mid/upper level energy associated with Sandra thus making this such a complicated and somewhat fascinating forecast this late in the year. Happy Thanksgiving everyone. And safe travels for those leaving town this Holiday weekend.

[Ntxw]

Euro has widespread 4-6" for north Texas (of rain). An area from about Dallas county on northeastward is 6-10". Could someone get a foot of rain out of this?

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

A strong storm system will approach TX late this week.

Widespread and prolonged rainfall event to commence on Thanksgiving and last through the weekend.

A large upper level trough will dig into the southern Rockies late this week while at the same time Tropical Storm Sandra in the eastern Pacific intensifies into a category 2 hurricane and eventually becomes captured by the deep layer trough over the SW US by this weekend. Significant amounts of mid and high level moisture will become entrained into the trough and brought NE across TX Friday-Sunday.

Cold surface high pressure responsible for the light freeze over portions of SE TX yesterday morning is now moving eastward allowing surface winds to turn to the SE across the region. This has resulted in a steady increase in low level moisture overnight and this morning and early afternoon satellite images confirm a low level cloud deck advancing into SE TX from the SW. This moist SE low level flow will remain in place the rest of the week and serve to gradually bring dewpoints into the 60’s resulting in muggy humid conditions by Thanksgiving Day. While moisture increases at the surface overall air mass is capped due to dry air above the 850mb level, so do not expect much rainfall activity until Thanksgiving when moisture really begins to deepen.

Upper level trough over the SW US will begin to edge eastward late this week allowing a cold Canadian (modified arctic) air mass to move down the plains and into TX. Models are not handling the overall frontal position very well with the GFS keeping SE TX on the warm and humid side through the weekend while the CMC and ECMWF bring the front into the region and stall the boundary. Expect a fairly significant temperature gradient along the boundary with 70’s ahead of the front and 40’s/50’s behind the front. While the upper level flow is out of the SW this weekend which would normally support a stalling front to our N and W, the air mass is cold and dense and such air masses tend to move more southward then models think under their own density. Think the front will make it into SE TX at some point late Friday, but not confident on how far south it moves….big potential for significant changes in temperatures over the weekend depending on frontal position.

Expect scattered showers to begin to develop on Thursday and increase in coverage and intensity on Friday as the frontal boundary nears. Moisture levels surge to near record levels (yet again) for late November as both moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and TC Sandra is brought over the region. Both surface front and 850mb front will help to focus a prolonged and at times heavy rainfall event. Current WPC rainfall forecasts keep the heaviest rainfall focused over NC TX into SE OK where a solid 5+ inches of rainfall can be expected with isolated amounts upwards of 6-9 inches. Over SE TX these amounts drop quickly toward the coast with the best rainfall chances Friday NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville. This rainfall forecast is likely only as good as the frontal position as a further southward position of the front would likely shift the axis of widespread training rainfall southward. Additionally, the track of the remains of Sandra across MX and in to TX by early Sunday will certainly have a play in the rainfall potential also.

For now will go with widespread rainfall of 2-3 inches over SE TX Friday-Sunday with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches possible and most likely NW of US 59. Changes to this and the temperature forecast are almost certain in the coming days.

Hydro:
Expected upstream rainfall amounts of N TX late this week and this weekend on top of saturated grounds and high lake levels are concerning. Run-off continues to be passed down area rivers from the recent rainfall events and lakes are running near or over 100% capacity. Additional significant rainfall this weekend will result in large scale run-off and likely lead to gate operations at area flood control reservoirs. Significant rises on area rivers will be likely for the first week on December.

[Ralph's Weather]

The Canadian does push the front much further SE than the GFS resulting in the heaviest rain falling over E TX vs N TX on the GFS and also bringing winter precip into western N TX and the Hill Country. Though from experience last year the Canadian did tend to be the most aggressive model for wintery weather so a blend of the GFS and Canadian seems reasonable.

[Portastorm]

The Canadian does push the front much further SE than the GFS resulting in the heaviest rain falling over E TX vs N TX on the GFS and also bringing winter precip into western N TX and the Hill Country. Though from experience last year the Canadian did tend to be the most aggressive model for wintery weather so a blend of the GFS and Canadian seems reasonable.

My experience has been that the Canadian is usually way over the top when it comes to forecasting wintry weather. It's often much too cold in surface depictions.

The set up is complex and timing will be the key. Wherever the remnants of Sandra and the frontal boundary meet ... that will be the area of maximum rainfall. As alluded to by Ntxw and srainhoutx, those inverted troughs are also often big trouble. A lot to watch for.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW AFTERNOON FORECAST
Tuesday November 24th, 2:47pm

.LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE RAINFALL SURROUNDING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COULD MEAN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MAY NEED TO
CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED IN COMING DAYS.

HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
ALL SIGNS (ABNORMALLY HIGH PW VALUES...A BUMP IN MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS FROM TROPICAL STORM SANDRA`S REMNANTS MOVING UP THIS
WAY...A CUT OFF LOW OUT WEST) POINT TOWARDS A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE MOST FAVORED
REGION WILL LIKELY BE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA CLOSER
TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS KEEPING SOILS
SATURATED AND VEGETATION MORE DORMANT AFTER RECENT COLD
TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THE SEVERE
WEATHER AND WINTER WEATHER THREATS ARE VERY LOW FOR OUR AREA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY BE DIMINISHING SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
BUT OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SOME LINGERING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...
AFTER A BREAK IN THE RAIN ON MONDAY WE MAY SEE A QUICK RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH NOT
MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE RECOVERY HOWEVER...KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
20-30% RANGE FOW NOW AND BEST CHANCES WOULD BE FOCUSED OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

[wxman57]

You know, per Ryan Maue, the Euro is going 7km... that's quite high resolution for this winter in parallel runs. That's like high res NAM stuff. We'll be able to see wxman57 (a little blurry) sunbathing in his front lawn this winter from the model!

Ah, nice to see you're coming around to my way of thinking about a warm, dry winter!

[weatherdude1108]

EWX 2:56PM forecast.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 242056
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW INTACT
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70...EXCEPT FOR A FEW READINGS IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. DEW POINTS HAVE RECOVERED
INTO THE 50S COMPARED TO 24 HOURS PRIOR WHEN VALUES WERE IN THE
30S.

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND GIVEN SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOWING A STOUT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING...WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE LOW-LEVELS...
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO IN STORE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND WE EXPECT
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK CONTINUES
TO LOOK ACTIVE. ON THURSDAY...AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE HAVE
BUMPED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL CHANCES UP
SLIGHTLY...BUT WE ARE STILL LACKING A GOOD LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. A GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM IN THE FORM OF
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WE/LL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDRA
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE COLD FRONT SLOWING IT/S
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
REMNANTS OF SANDRA MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TEXAS. WE
DO EXPECT A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-35. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES STILL APPEAR
REASONABLE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS INTACT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW...WE WILL MENTION A LOW
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

https://youtu.be/IvmeUStFvz8

[Ralph's Weather]

I looked up the greatest annual rainfall in Texas and somewhat surprisingly it was Clarksville in 1873 with 109.38 in. according to the Texas Almanac. Not sure we get there, but I bet we will approach the statewide annual record of 41.93 in. according to the NCDC. For Jan to Oct we were at number 3 all time for the state and we have continued with above average rainfall since.

[Ntxw]

https://youtu.be/IvmeUStFvz8

http://i253.photobucket.com/albums/hh50 ... ElNino.jpg

It's a big one. I really wish records were kept at the stations going back to 1877-1878. Looking at some re-analysis of 500mb patterns there were some pretty massive storms crossing Texas fairly far to the south that winter. It was also the warmest winter on record for the upper midwest. In terms of coverage that may be the closest comparison to 2015