Texas Spring 2016

[StormChaser75]

I got some good video of the First band going through, now waiting for the second band now

[weatherdude1108]

We've gotten about 1.5 inches since yesterday at my place. And it is 59 degrees!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Second HRRR run in a row here Houston/SE Tx gets a deluge of rain that would bring flooding. Watch those storms down near CC and smaller pop up storms near Bay City.

[Tireman4]

It aint over til its over. This is far from over (quoting Wxman 57 on another channel)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
804 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID UNTIL 12 NOON FOR
BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...AND WHARTON COUNTIES.
STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
MAIN HAZARDS ARE TORNADOES AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE MAINLY SCT TSRA FROM
WEST OF KSGR TO KCXO/KUTS. CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH AROUND 35KTS. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION SO FAR
WILL BE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT FOR THIS
AXIS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND IMPACT KIAH/KHOU
THROUGH 18Z. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITH JUST
ISO TSRA POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION THAT AS VCTS IN TAFS. SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN HELPFUL BUT HRRR HAS BEEN THE
ONLY MODEL TO SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH KCLL AND COULD REACH KUTS
LATER TODAY. CIGS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT COULD DECREASE INTO IFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00-02Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL GO
WITH VCTS AND IFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE THUR MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS OVER SE TEXAS. WILL
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THE RAINFALL. THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN SAN
ANTONIO AND PALESTINE. A SECOND BOUNDARY WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED
BY THE SYSTEM...AND THE NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
PW/S ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS WILL HELP
DEVELOP STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BEST ESTIMATES ARE THAT BETWEEN 3
AND 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FRIDAY. THE MODEL THEN
SHEARS THE LOW OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PW/S OF ABOUT 1.8
OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.

40

MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING SO
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM/12Z. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 3PM AS ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST DUE TO THE LONG PERSISTENT FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY BUT DECREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.

ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH
ABOUT 1.5 FEET TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND IMPACTS OVER THE
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY.NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
804 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED VALID UNTIL 12 NOON FOR
BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...AND WHARTON COUNTIES.
STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
MAIN HAZARDS ARE TORNADOES AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE MAINLY SCT TSRA FROM
WEST OF KSGR TO KCXO/KUTS. CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
QUICKLY NORTH AROUND 35KTS. BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION SO FAR
WILL BE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT FOR THIS
AXIS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND IMPACT KIAH/KHOU
THROUGH 18Z. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WITH JUST
ISO TSRA POSSIBLE SO WILL MENTION THAT AS VCTS IN TAFS. SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN HELPFUL BUT HRRR HAS BEEN THE
ONLY MODEL TO SHOW THE FRONT THROUGH KCLL AND COULD REACH KUTS
LATER TODAY. CIGS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT COULD DECREASE INTO IFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00-02Z. GFS/NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL GO
WITH VCTS AND IFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE THUR MORNING.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A FAVORABLE
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS OVER SE TEXAS. WILL
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THE RAINFALL. THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN SAN
ANTONIO AND PALESTINE. A SECOND BOUNDARY WAS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED
BY THE SYSTEM...AND THE NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
PW/S ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 50 KNOTS WILL HELP
DEVELOP STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT AS TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BEST ESTIMATES ARE THAT BETWEEN 3
AND 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. THE ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL FRIDAY. THE MODEL THEN
SHEARS THE LOW OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVERHEAD
THROUGH SATURDAY. A MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PW/S OF ABOUT 1.8
OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.

40

MARINE...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING SO
THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM/12Z. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 3PM AS ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST DUE TO THE LONG PERSISTENT FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY BUT DECREASE MORE ON
FRIDAY. LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.

ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WATER LEVELS WILL REACH
ABOUT 1.5 FEET TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND IMPACTS OVER THE
LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

[davidiowx]

Storms starting to fire all along the upper Texas Coast now.. Looks like this was just really late in getting started.

[Ntxw]

So far it's been a welcome rain. But it hasn't been as much as advertised yet. Will wait till Friday to judge but overall the Texas Triangle cities have only received 1-2" of rain.

Not the case in Louisiana though, Shreveport is nearing a foot of rain

[Tireman4]

What in the world... GFS verbatim would have frost outside the metro. and the S word in much of the panhandle

That is why they call it March Madness.......

[TexasSam]

I'm getting the heaviest rain of the storm so far just now. Lightning & thunder too...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The HRRR has had the most consistent 3 runs in a row it has had during this event. Showing rain starting in a few hours for the Huston metroplex and continuing till the end of the 15 hr run. Hang on to your hats.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the SW ½ of SE TX until noon.

Complex of strong to severe thunderstorms has developed over the TX coastal bend between Corpus Christi and Victoria and these storms are likely being driven by incoming short wave out of MX. Expect some additional development along the upper TX coastal counties as lift increases. Main threats will be damaging winds, but the threat will decrease north of I-10.

Heavy rainfall threat remains across the region, although totals thus far have been low. Models have not performed overly well overnight and I do not have much confidence moving forward. However radar trends to our SW are some of the most impressive in the last 24 hours and expect some if not all of this activity to move into a large part of SE TX over the next several hours.

Threat will continue into the evening hours as additional energy rotates through the stalled upper low over MX and ejects across TX.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The line of storms seem to be tracking not in a straight line but arching a bit to the right. The storms from Bay city had my name on them and now are missing to the right. Im sort of expecting the same thing from the storms near CC for SE Tx. Some high rainfall rates in those storms.

[Tireman4]

The Weather Prediction Center just put this out for parts of SE Texas...

ACROSS THESE AREAS THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF TRAINING OF CELLS...PRODUCING SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF 2"+
IN AN HOUR AND TOTALS THIS PERIOD IN THE 5-10"+ RANGE.

[jasons2k]

So far, I have had .62"

[Tireman4]

Thundering in Gulfgate area of Houston....really coming down. We (Houston) are in for it for awhile.

[Shoshana]

Overnight I thought there was a jet going over but that was the noise from the rain. Looked outside and the downspouts looked like they had firehoses inside!

Just checked, we got 3.2" and it's currently raining. And thundering.

Didn't hear any hail overnight, if we had any it was pea size.

[Tireman4]

I worry on how our drainage in Houston will hold out while these clusters come through. If there is training, look out. I am in a flood prone area as we speak...

[davidiowx]

The line of storms seem to be tracking not in a straight line but arching a bit to the right. The storms from Bay city had my name on them and now are missing to the right. Im sort of expecting the same thing from the storms near CC for SE Tx. Some high rainfall rates in those storms.

Seems like areas to the SW of Houston are in a dry spot.. may be like that for a while.. Time will tell.

[TheProfessor]

Really wish I was home for the storms, I learned some picture taking techniques for lightning at our severe weather symposium this past Saturday and my mom has a nice camera to try it on. Unfortunately I don't get to come home till Friday when everything has passed.

[jasons2k]

Look closely at the storms in NW Harris County. As the cells themselves move to the north, the mass of storms has started building the the Southeast, following the *very* slowly advancing front. If this continues, we could see the flooding really take off across metro Houston. This needs to be monitored very closely the next several hours.

Something else to watch is the mass out in the Gulf, to see if it affects the inflow of warm & unstable air from the south.

[davidiowx]

Look closely at the storms in NW Harris County. As the cells themselves move to the north, the mass of storms has started building the the Southeast, following the *very* slowly advancing front. If this continues, we could see the flooding really take off across metro Houston. This needs to be monitored very closely the next several hours.

Just hold off until I eat lunch! LOL