Texas Summer 2022

[Iceresistance]

Temperatures are absolutely crazy in Southwestern Oklahoma right now

109°F In Altus, OK

Update: 110°F for Altus Oklahoma per Oklahoma mesonet.

[bubba hotep]

Temperatures are absolutely crazy in Southwestern Oklahoma right now

109°F In Altus, OK

Update: 110°F for Altus Oklahoma per Oklahoma mesonet.

That part of the state is notorious for extreme heat. The all-time state high temp record is held by Tipton, which is just down the road.

[Iceresistance]

Temperatures are absolutely crazy in Southwestern Oklahoma right now

109°F In Altus, OK

Update: 110°F for Altus Oklahoma per Oklahoma mesonet.

That part of the state is notorious for extreme heat. The all-time state high temp record is held by Tipton, which is just down the road.

Well yes, but it's been years since I've last seen temperatures this high in Oklahoma.

[Ntxw]

Update: 110°F for Altus Oklahoma per Oklahoma mesonet.

That part of the state is notorious for extreme heat. The all-time state high temp record is held by Tipton, which is just down the road.

Well yes, but it's been years since I've last seen temperatures this high in Oklahoma.

In mid June at that. It can get really hot in June but not that common, late July and August is more understandable. Only the hottest of summers go this early.

[Cpv17]

Temperatures are absolutely crazy in Southwestern Oklahoma right now

109°F In Altus, OK

Update: 110°F for Altus Oklahoma per Oklahoma mesonet.

That part of the state is notorious for extreme heat. The all-time state high temp record is held by Tipton, which is just down the road.

In 1936 the state record was set at 3 different locations (Alva, Altus, and Poteau) of 120°F in Oklahoma.

[rwfromkansas]

I am flying back from Seattle tomorrow. Flew to a glacier and hiked on it, even drank the pure water. One of the best experiences of my life. I dread coming back to 105! Heavens.

[Brent]

I am flying back from Seattle tomorrow. Flew to a glacier and hiked on it, even drank the pure water. One of the best experiences of my life. I dread coming back to 105! Heavens.

That sounds amazing right now

And yeah it's not for the faint of heart. We had a heat index of at least 112 today those single digits and snow are a distant memory now

[Ntxw]

GFS has some weak qpf underneath the ridge, maybe a slight chance at daytime popcorn showers on the southern end. Hoping for a trend, it's still hot on the model but at least something.

[Tireman4]

HGX agrees with you Ntxw




00
FXUS64 KHGX 131123
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
MVFR CIGS and SCT decks will clear by mid morning as breezy
southerly flow redevelops. 10-15kt winds with gusts nearing
20-25kts will persist throughout much of the day before relaxing
to 5-10kts late in the evening. SCT decks around 1500-2500 ft will
develop late tonight with MVFR CIGS possible at KCLL overnight.
These cloud decks will scatter out Tuesday morning as gusty
southerly flow resumes.

A thick layer of Saharan dust is currently sitting overhead,
causing sensors to readout BKN to OVC skies. This dust will
bring hazy conditions across SE Texas over the next several days.
03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

For today, the mid to upper level ridge will slide east into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This will nudge down high temperatures a
tad to start this week, though with 850mb temperatures at 23-20C and
500mb heights at 592-590dm, this week will still be unpleasantly
hot. Highs this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 90s with sunny
skies across much of the region. Heat indices will be in excess of
105, so practicing heat safety is recommended. The pressure gradient
should tighten up this afternoon as a surface low spin up over the
Central Rockies. This should, at the very least, provide breezy
conditions across SE Texas and some mild relief from the heat. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s, though it will feel very
muggy with dewpoints in the mid to lower 70s.

Temperatures will continue to creep down a degree or two as the
upper level ridge advances E/NE into the Tennessee Valley on
Tuesday. However, toasty highs and muggy lows will persist, with
rain chances slim to none.

03


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Hot. More hot. Maaaaaybe some rain...but still hot. The end.

That`s the condensed version of the long term period, but y`all
know I love to go in-depth in my discussions...so let`s dive in!
With the mid/upper level ridge pushing eastward midweek, this will
allow for more seasonal temperatures on Wednesday as highs only
reach the mid to upper 90s. That`ll be the "coolest" day for the
rest of the week as another ridge builds in from the west on
Thursday. 500mb heights will range from 590-594 dm into early next
week...so welcome back to the heat dome! Temperatures respond
accordingly by increasing back into the upper 90s and triple
digits through the weekend. Skies will likely remain hazy
throughout the week, but definitely on Thursday/Friday as a large
plume of Saharan dust moves in from the south.

Now how about some rain? PW values begin to surge on Thursday
afternoon up to 1.6"-1.8", but there`s nothing around to lift
it...yet. We`ll have a shortwave wrapping around a mid- level high
that provides PVA Friday through Saturday. PW values increase to
1.9"-2.1" by Friday afternoon, which is above the 75th percentile
(~1.8"). CAPE values generally range from 1000-1500 J/kg along
with LI values around -2 to -4. For all the meteorology gurus out
there, we just outlined that we`ll have moisture, lift, and
instability. These are the ingredients for thunderstorms! Our
best chances for rain (20%-25%) will be along the sea breeze on
Friday and Saturday afternoon before the shortwave moves out on
Saturday night, then we`ll be back to dryness once again. With
increasing moisture over the weekend, we`ll have to keep an eye on
heat index values as well. As of right now, they`ll generally
range from 104-106 degrees, but it`s definitely worth monitoring.
Regardless of that, you should still plan on practicing heat
safety. NAEFS percentiles continue to point towards surface
temperatures in at least the 90th percentile throughout the long
term period, with a bump up into the 99th percentile Friday
through Sunday.

Lastly, there is a cold front to talk about, but this won`t be
anything spectacular. As an upper-level trough deepens over the
Northeastern CONUS on Sunday, a weak frontal boundary may backdoor
into portions of Southeast Texas. This is evident on both 00Z
runs of the GFS and ECMWF. This is also a week out, so I`m not
putting any significant weight into it because even if the front
does make it, there won`t be any noticeable effects. But it`s nice
to talk about something other than how hot it`ll be for once!

Batiste


.MARINE...

Moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through midweek then
become light towards the end of the work week. For now, keeping
caution flags up for the Bays and Gulf waters through at least
tonight, but these will likely be needed at various periods
through Wednesday. As a result of the moderate winds, seas
gradually elevate to 5-6 feet by Tuesday before subsiding going
into Wednesday night. Rip currents will also be a concern with a
moderate to high risk throughout the week.

Batiste


.CLIMATE...

Galveston set a record high minimum temperature yesterday when
the low only dropped to 85 degrees (old record was 82 degrees
set in 2021). The 85 degrees also tied for the highest minimum
temperature ever recorded in the entire month of June. June 12th
is now the earliest in the year that the low temperature only
fell to 85 degrees (previous record was June 21st). Galveston`s
all-time record high minimum temperature of 87 degrees was set
on four consecutive days between August 31st 2000 and September
3rd 2020.

Galveston`s records date back to 5/10/1874

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 101 77 100 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 99 79 97 79 96 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 90 83 90 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Tuesday morning for
the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Tuesday morning for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...Brokamp

[Iceresistance]

Yep, as mentioned from NWS-Houston, I do have some Sahara dust haze right now to the South.

[captainbarbossa19]

Looking at model guidance along with the CPC, this drought looks like it's quickly becoming a problem for the whole South and Midwest. Personally, a month ago I was thinking ridging would be more dominant over the Western US, but it seems like the opposite is happening. This pattern is awful for farmers.

[HockeyTx82]

That part of the state is notorious for extreme heat. The all-time state high temp record is held by Tipton, which is just down the road.

Well yes, but it's been years since I've last seen temperatures this high in Oklahoma.

In mid June at that. It can get really hot in June but not that common, late July and August is more understandable. Only the hottest of summers go this early.

If it's already 110F this early in summer imagine how hot it will be come July and August.

[Brent]

Well yes, but it's been years since I've last seen temperatures this high in Oklahoma.

In mid June at that. It can get really hot in June but not that common, late July and August is more understandable. Only the hottest of summers go this early.

If it's already 110F this early in summer imagine how hot it will be come July and August.

Yeah that's my concern too

And I'm gonna say straight up I'm struggling with this humidity. It's just making me feel ugh as soon as I walk outside. I'm hoping it's just the fact we hadn't been hot at all up here then get it all at once but blah

[Ntxw]

In mid June at that. It can get really hot in June but not that common, late July and August is more understandable. Only the hottest of summers go this early.

If it's already 110F this early in summer imagine how hot it will be come July and August.

Yeah that's my concern too

And I'm gonna say straight up I'm struggling with this humidity. It's just making me feel ugh as soon as I walk outside. I'm hoping it's just the fact we hadn't been hot at all up here then get it all at once but blah

There is this false sense of security that if it rained, it won't get too hot. It's only true if it continues to rain and break up the heat. If it shuts off, it can get hot if the upper pattern allows. It was wet in Oklahoma during May in some of the hottest summers too. The issue is the broader 500mb ridge is stacked and helped by the drought so it is bigger factor than localized wet soils.

[Brent]

If it's already 110F this early in summer imagine how hot it will be come July and August.

Yeah that's my concern too

And I'm gonna say straight up I'm struggling with this humidity. It's just making me feel ugh as soon as I walk outside. I'm hoping it's just the fact we hadn't been hot at all up here then get it all at once but blah

There is this false sense of security that if it rained, it won't get too hot. It's only true if it continues to rain and break up the heat. If it shuts off, it can get hot if the upper pattern allows. It was wet in Oklahoma during May in some of the hottest summers too. The issue is the broader 500mb ridge is stacked and helped by the drought so it is bigger factor than localized wet soils.

Yeah I had kind of thought eventually when it kept raining we would pay for it and it's being proven true now... I mean yesterday there was a heat index of 114 here! I'm not sure I've ever seen much worse tbh even in Alabama all those years where humidity was a thing.. it's just usually there if there was humidity it wasn't anywhere close to 100 like it was here yesterday

[somethingfunny]

TBH I have no complaints about the weather so far... the consistent breeze has kept this heat from ever feeling really oppressive.

At night it actually feels fantastic out!

[Iceresistance]

Starting to feel better with the next seven days, Consistent low/mid 90s compare to spikes of upper 90s. I mean, it's better than trying for 100's Unless you're an area that will have 100s every summer.

At least we're no longer under any heat alerts for now, the Heat Dome/Cockroach Death ridge has moved off to the East into the Midwest and Southeast. And the reason why it's not to Southwest is because the monsoon is starting early, and already!

[Edwards Limestone]

TBH I have no complaints about the weather so far... the consistent breeze has kept this heat from ever feeling really oppressive.

At night it actually feels fantastic out!

Wait until July/August. It's been the middle of the summer since April down here. Y'all are next!

[jasons2k]

I got a late start on my run this morning. It was already 84 degrees. Needless to say, I couldn’t finish it. I was walking intermittently before I hit 2 miles. That heat is brutal. It’s already 90 here at 10am!!

[Iceresistance]

It seems like the GFS is trying to get a pattern break with storms near the end of the month, it feels so close, but yet it's so far away . . .