Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains

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Bunkertor
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#241 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:49 pm

TORNADO WARNING
MOC185-217-180030-
/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0069.071017T2339Z-071018T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
639 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.

* AT 634 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS VERY
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF WALKER...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF EL DORADO SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SCHELL CITY BY 645 PM CDT.
8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF APPLETON CITY BY 705 PM CDT.
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOWRY CITY BY 720 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF TABERVILLE AND JOHNSON CITY ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS
TORNADIC STORM.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3806 9420 3807 9413 3805 9408 3817 9408
3823 9404 3822 9364 3818 9353 3788 9401
3789 9407 3783 9410 3794 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 224DEG 31KT 3796 9410

$$

ANGLE
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#242 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:50 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KS/CENTRAL AND ERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 711...

VALID 172323Z - 180000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 711 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAST
MOVING LINE OF TSTMS TRACKS NEWD AT 40-45 KT ACROSS SERN/ERN KS THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF FAST MOVING TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM MARION COUNTY KS SSEWD TO OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
OK...WITH DISCRETE TSTMS S OF THIS LINE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OK /SE
THROUGH NE OF OKC/.

...ERN KS...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED THE AIR MASS OVER ERN KS TO THE N OF A
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY
REMAINS COOL AND ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. 21Z RUC FORECAST
SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS OVER ERN KS WILL SLOWLY DESTABILIZE FROM S-N
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW IN NRN KS AND TRAILING DRY LINE
ADVANCE EWD ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SLY. HOWEVER...
CURRENT SPEED OF THE SRN KS/NRN OK LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD PRECEDE THIS
EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A
NEW WW FOR ERN KS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN ONGOING STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS ERN KS THIS EVENING.

...CENTRAL AND ERN OK...
LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS AS DISCRETE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS CENTRAL
OK TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ONCE THE DRY LINE PASSES A GIVEN LOCATION.

..PETERS.. 10/17/2007


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...

33689438 33739602 33879762 35539758 36969796 37659800
38449765 39159685 39539564 39509469
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#243 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:51 pm

Now 8 tornado reports.
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#244 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:53 pm

Tornado Warning (South Mississippi)
Marion
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#245 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:55 pm

Now up to 11 tornado reports. Maybe we are in the outbreak now?
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#246 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:01 pm

Does anyone know where the "Listen live" butten in the up-right corner has moved to ? That was amateur radio...
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#247 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:03 pm

new cells going up along the dryline in oklahoma just east of I35
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#248 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:04 pm

How much is the activity expected to diminish overnight?
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#249 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:04 pm

Looks like a long night ahead...
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Re:

#250 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:04 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Now up to 11 tornado reports. Maybe we are in the outbreak now?

It woudl appear that way especially given the strong forcing and substantial lapse rates. As this moves east the opportunities for tornadic activity would seem to increase due to less mixing and higher temps and dew points.
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Re:

#251 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:05 pm

HarlequinBoy wrote:How much is the activity expected to diminish overnight?

Considering activity is not thermo based I'd say activity may decrease slightly depending on the location but large hail/wind and isolate tornadoes should be expected.
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Re: Re:

#252 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:05 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Now up to 11 tornado reports. Maybe we are in the outbreak now?

It woudl appear that way especially given the strong forcing and substantial lapse rates. As this moves east the opportunities for tornadic activity would seem to increase due to less mixing and higher temps and dew points.


Unfortunately, that also coincides with the fact this will be happening in darkness, which makes it especially dangerous...
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#253 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:07 pm

I'd be thinking of a PDS watch for much of Arkansas, extreme West Tennessee, extreme northwestern Mississippi, southern Missouri and northern Louisiana...
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#254 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:09 pm

right now we've got 60mph winds straight out of the south.
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#255 Postby Cyclone1 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:09 pm

I find it very coincidental that Stormchasers, an epic documentary, is airing tonight of all nights.

Reminds me of that National Geographic documentary on wind I was watching as Hurricane Jeanne was over my house.

It goes without saying that night is the worst time to have a tornado outbreak. I hope they're all taking necessary precautions.
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#256 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:12 pm

New watch:

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 715
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 711...WW 712...WW
713...WW 714...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY THIS
EVENING OVER EASTERN AR INTO EASTERN LA AS VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES EASTWARD ACROSS MS VALLEY. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...LARGE
SCALE FORCING...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL PROMOTE A RISK
OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART


SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 715
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 711...WW 712...WW
713...WW 714...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY THIS
EVENING OVER EASTERN AR INTO EASTERN LA AS VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES EASTWARD ACROSS MS VALLEY. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...LARGE
SCALE FORCING...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL PROMOTE A RISK
OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 180006
WOU5

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 715
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

TORNADO WATCH 715 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC003-017-021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-
180700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0715.071018T0010Z-071018T0700Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ASHLEY CHICOT CLAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
GREENE LAWRENCE LEE
MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS


LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-180700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0715.071018T0010Z-071018T0700Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL


MOC069-155-180700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0715.071018T0010Z-071018T0700Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DUNKLIN PEMISCOT


MSC001-011-021-027-029-031-035-037-049-051-053-055-063-065-067-
073-077-083-085-089-091-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-143-149-
151-163-180700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0715.071018T0010Z-071018T0700Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BOLIVAR CLAIBORNE
COAHOMA COPIAH COVINGTON
FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
LAMAR LAWRENCE LEFLORE
LINCOLN MADISON MARION
QUITMAN RANKIN SCOTT
SHARKEY SIMPSON SMITH
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TUNICA
WARREN WASHINGTON YAZOO


ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW5
WW 715 TORNADO AR LA MO MS 180010Z - 180700Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NNE ARG/WALNUT RIDGE AR/ - 55ESE HEZ/NATCHEZ MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /23NNE ARG - 9W MCB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

LAT...LON 36458968 31308941 31309145 36459183

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.


Watch 715 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
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Re:

#257 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:12 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:I find it very coincidental that Stormchasers, an epic documentary, is airing tonight of all nights.

Reminds me of that National Geographic documentary on wind I was watching as Hurricane Jeanne was over my house.

It goes without saying that night is the worst time to have a tornado outbreak. I hope they're all taking necessary precautions.

what channel is that on?
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Big Severe Wx Outbreak around 10/18/07 in Plains?

#258 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:12 pm

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Re: Re:

#259 Postby Cyclone1 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:13 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
Cyclone1 wrote:I find it very coincidental that Stormchasers, an epic documentary, is airing tonight of all nights.

Reminds me of that National Geographic documentary on wind I was watching as Hurricane Jeanne was over my house.

It goes without saying that night is the worst time to have a tornado outbreak. I hope they're all taking necessary precautions.

what channel is that on?


Discovery at 10 tonight. Part 1 / 4
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#260 Postby HarlequinBoy » Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:14 pm

I'm included in that, and that watch has an interesting shape..
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